"Ceasefire / Assessment

a) Israel:
1. Every time Israel has relied on the stupidity of the "Palestinians" it has worked. Historically.
2. It is better to bet on the "Palestinian" ineptness than to bet on conflicts with the superpowers.
3. Israel is still at war and has never gone "all out" on all arenas at once and this has paid off.

Note: It is not to be ruled out that there is preparation for an Israeli invasion of southern Lebanon due to Hezbollah's refusal to disarm, perhaps the completion of the work against the remnants of Iran, or a diplomatic process to complete the Abraham Accords.

B) The struggle against the PA
1. Historically, there is no "Palestinian establishment" that can make operational decisions or accommodate concessions. Hence, the Israeli gamble always pays off from 1948 until the Bar-Ilan speech (Netanyahu accepting the idea of a Palestinian State in the Obama era - JP)
2. Hamas cannot accommodate "disarmament" because then it will be slaughtered, as it slaughtered Fatah after the disengagement (Israek's one-sided retreat from Gaza in 2005 - JP).

C) Trump and the US:
1. Trump is a leader who knows how to tear trade and nuclear agreements to pieces.
2. Trump has already led political processes that ended differently, such as the "Deal of the Century" that ended with the Abraham Accords or the "Negotiations with Iran" that ended with the bombing of Iran, and of course the endless talks and flick-flacking between Russia and Ukraine.
3. Trump tends to humiliate himself in front of the "other side" until the other side - Russia, Iran, Europe: makes a mistake and gets caught up in it. This is a simplistic negotiation strategy that the global political world simply refuses to accept.
4. Trump has more important goals and may want peace in this arena. I remind you that the world is still in a war of superpowers and trade. There are also personal circumstances such as the Nobel Peace Prize.

D) The agreement on a practical level:

The return of the hostages is the only element in the agreement that can be executed on an immediate and practical level. All the other parts - will take months if not years to implement. Disarming organizations, reconstruction, establishing a "technocratic government".
Try it in Iraq, Afghanistan, Judea and Samaria in the Oslo Accords - "artificial regimes" are always a failure and in the end blood runs in the streets.
The Arab/Muslim world has never created a practical political or military operation and managed to maintain it.
This agreement, except for the return of the hostages - if to put it somewhat bluntly - is Western nonsense that has already been tried in various versions in countless places in the Middle East.

Israel will not be tested by a single agreement or a micro-event in the war: but by whether it derives maximum profit in relation to the situation.

Israel's decision-making set should also always be with the practical dimension as the supreme one.

And time will judge that.

Just as there were days of ceasefires, there were days of bombings in Iran.

I see no reason to get excited one way or the other. The sky is not falling except on the issue of the hostages. Military power is supreme - not fragile political power.

Hence, patience."

(Topaz Ram)