We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
"Ceasefire / Assessment
a) Israel:
1. Every time Israel has relied on the stupidity of the "Palestinians" it has worked. Historically.
2. It is better to bet on the "Palestinian" ineptness than to bet on conflicts with the superpowers.
3. Israel is still at war and has never gone "all out" on all arenas at once and this has paid off.
Note: It is not to be ruled out that there is preparation for an Israeli invasion of southern Lebanon due to Hezbollah's refusal to disarm, perhaps the completion of the work against the remnants of Iran, or a diplomatic process to complete the Abraham Accords.
B) The struggle against the PA
1. Historically, there is no "Palestinian establishment" that can make operational decisions or accommodate concessions. Hence, the Israeli gamble always pays off from 1948 until the Bar-Ilan speech (Netanyahu accepting the idea of a Palestinian State in the Obama era - JP)
2. Hamas cannot accommodate "disarmament" because then it will be slaughtered, as it slaughtered Fatah after the disengagement (Israek's one-sided retreat from Gaza in 2005 - JP).
C) Trump and the US:
1. Trump is a leader who knows how to tear trade and nuclear agreements to pieces.
2. Trump has already led political processes that ended differently, such as the "Deal of the Century" that ended with the Abraham Accords or the "Negotiations with Iran" that ended with the bombing of Iran, and of course the endless talks and flick-flacking between Russia and Ukraine.
3. Trump tends to humiliate himself in front of the "other side" until the other side - Russia, Iran, Europe: makes a mistake and gets caught up in it. This is a simplistic negotiation strategy that the global political world simply refuses to accept.
4. Trump has more important goals and may want peace in this arena. I remind you that the world is still in a war of superpowers and trade. There are also personal circumstances such as the Nobel Peace Prize.
D) The agreement on a practical level:
The return of the hostages is the only element in the agreement that can be executed on an immediate and practical level. All the other parts - will take months if not years to implement. Disarming organizations, reconstruction, establishing a "technocratic government".
Try it in Iraq, Afghanistan, Judea and Samaria in the Oslo Accords - "artificial regimes" are always a failure and in the end blood runs in the streets.
The Arab/Muslim world has never created a practical political or military operation and managed to maintain it.
This agreement, except for the return of the hostages - if to put it somewhat bluntly - is Western nonsense that has already been tried in various versions in countless places in the Middle East.
Israel will not be tested by a single agreement or a micro-event in the war: but by whether it derives maximum profit in relation to the situation.
Israel's decision-making set should also always be with the practical dimension as the supreme one.
And time will judge that.
Just as there were days of ceasefires, there were days of bombings in Iran.
I see no reason to get excited one way or the other. The sky is not falling except on the issue of the hostages. Military power is supreme - not fragile political power.
Hence, patience."
(Topaz Ram)
🇺🇸 #Oklahoma high school principal (Kirk Moore) seen charging at and disarming a school shooter.
The suspect, identified as 20-year-old Victor Hawkins, was a former student who said he wanted to shoot up the school “like the Columbine shooters did.” While taking down the shooter, Moore was shot in the leg. He is expected to recover.
When the Principal woke up that day, he never thought he would be tackling a gunman.
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🇨🇳🛢 How much strategic oil does the world actually have in reserve?
Global strategic crude oil inventories stood at ~2.5 BILLION barrels as of December 2025, according to the US Energy Information Administration.
China holds by far the largest stockpile at 1,397 million barrels, more than 3 times the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve of 413 million barrels, which itself sits at only 58% of its full storage capacity of 714 million barrels.
China added an average of 1.1 million barrels per day to its strategic inventories throughout 2025, with preliminary data suggesting it continued building stockpiles in early 2026 ahead of the Iran War.
Japan holds the 3rd-largest reserve at 263 million barrels, followed by OECD European countries at 179 million barrels.
Meanwhile, the US is releasing 172 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve to suppress oil prices, part of a broader 400 million barrel coordinated release agreed by 32 IEA member nations in March.
🔗 ...
🛢 JP Morgan Warns Oil Market Out of Balance, Prices Must Rise
🔸The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil flows, has removed 13.7 million barrels per day from global supply in April alone. A JP Morgan research note warns the market has no good way to replace it.
🔸Normally, spare production capacity in Saudi Arabia and the UAE acts as the market’s shock absorber. But that buffer has effectively been removed, eliminating the system’s first line of defense.
🔸With spare capacity unavailable, markets turned to inventories
➤ Global stockpiles are now being drained at ~7.1 mbd in April, an extraordinary pace, according to the note.
🔸Meanwhile, demand is collapsing because supply simply isn’t reaching users — “forced demand destruction.”The hardest hit sectors include:
▪️ Petrochemical plants across Asia are shutting down or slashing output as LPG, ethane, and naphtha flows from the Gulf collapse
▪️ Airline jet fuel ...
🛢⛽️ Global oil inventories are heading toward RECORD LOWS:
Global visible oil inventories have fallen -255 million barrels since the start of the conflict on February 27, to 7,864 million barrels.
Total estimated oil draws, including non-OECD refined products storage, have accelerated to 10.9 million barrels per day in April, the largest monthly draws on record since 2017.
Cumulative estimated draws since the start of the war now stand at 474 million barrels, with Hormuz flows holding at ~10% of normal, or 2.0 million barrels per day.
Meanwhile, even in an optimistic scenario where Strait of Hormuz flows begin recovering by late April, it is unlikely to prevent global visible inventories from reaching all-time lows, according to Goldman Sachs.
As inventories keep falling, physical oil markets are likely to require sharply higher prices for immediate delivery, since buyers cannot wait months for cheaper futures delivery when stocks are running critically low.
Goldman also warns...
