We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
🇺🇸📉💸 Regional banks are facing a perfect storm of credit problems, with commercial real estate loans comprising 44% of their portfolios versus just 13% for large banks. Office loan delinquencies have hit 10.4%, approaching 2008 crisis levels, while over $1 trillion in CRE loans must refinance by year-end in a higher-rate environment.
The Fraud Factor
Recent disclosures reveal deeper problems beyond market stress. Zions Bancorporation disclosed $60 million in provisions and $50 million in write-offs related to alleged loan fraud from its California division, while Western Alliance faced similar issues. These incidents echo Jamie Dimon's warning about "more cockroaches" in the credit market, suggesting systematic underwriting problems beyond economic cycles.
The Concentration Risk
Florida Atlantic University analysis found 59 of the 158 largest banks have CRE exposures exceeding 300% of total equity capital. New York Community Bancorp's Flagstar subsidiary shows a particularly dangerous 477% CRE concentration ratio. Many banks are using "extend and pretend" strategies, restructuring loans to avoid immediate write-offs while masking underlying problems.
The Systemic Implications
Studies suggest a 1% increase in non-performing loan ratios can decrease GDP growth by 0.1%, creating vicious cycles where economic weakness worsens credit quality. The concentration of regional bank problems in CRE mirrors historical patterns from the S&L crisis of the 1980s, when similar interest rate and real estate pressures caused widespread failures.
My Take
This analysis confirms that March 2023's regional banking crisis was papered over rather than resolved. The combination of CRE concentration, interest rate pressure, and emerging fraud cases suggests the underlying problems have worsened. When banks resort to extend-and-pretend strategies while facing refinancing walls on $1 trillion in loans, it creates conditions for a more severe crisis than what we saw in 2023. The moral hazard from implicit government backstops has encouraged more risk-taking rather than better management.
🔗 Hedgie
🇮🇷❌👑👑❗️ — Videos coming out of Iran, after the Internet ban, share some of the most gruesome and terrific images so far in this protest season
At least 10 protesters in Fardis, Karaj area of Alborz province of Iran, West of Tehran, were reportedly killed by Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Troops under orders of the Islamic Republic Regime in Iran.
According to reports from netizens via Musk's Starlink, dozens of other deaths are being reported as having occurred in other locations on Iranian soil.
In one of the videos, it's possible hear in Persian/Farsi:
"Right in front of Fardis Police Station No. 11, a Toyota was pulled up and sprayed with gunfire.
People were mowed down with heavy weapons, machine-gun fire, indiscriminately."
🇻🇪 Call of Duty: Ghosts, PC Game, was released 12 years ago when Venzuela Maduro started his Presidency.
🇺🇸 In the game, US Military raid Venezuela at night and capture the Venezuelan Dictator.
In the game, it says this Event happens in the Year 2026.
- We are living in a Matrix
- We are in a Simulation
- There is a Script
- Remember the Charlie Kirk movie, Snake Eyes, which foretold his Death
🇬🇧 The Prevent video game that treats every teenager like a far-Right extremist
Youngsters threatened with referral to anti-terror programme if they question migration while playing
A state-funded computer game is warning teenagers that they risk being referred to a counter-terrorism programme if they question mass migration.
Pathways is an interactive game designed for 11- to 18-year-old pupils and funded by Prevent, a Home Office programme for tackling extremism.
Young players are directed to help their in-game characters – a white teenage boy and girl – to avoid being reported for “extreme Right-wing ideology” after discussing migration online.
Characters can face extremism referrals if they choose to engage with groups that spread “harmful ideological messages”, or join protests against the “erosion of British values”. Even researching online immigration statistics is portrayed negatively.
Other in-game pitfalls include sharing a video that claims Muslim men,...
IT KEEPS GETTING WORSE: A BURIED CIA VIDEO JUST SURFACED… AND ERIKA KIRK IS IN IT
https://x.com/hustlebitch_/status/2009688114923745442?s=46
A 10-year-old documentary about EMP attacks and U.S. power grid vulnerability has quietly surfaced - and buried inside it is Erika Kirk.
She’s not observing.
She’s not a host.
She’s in a role most civilians never get near, briefing national security professionals alongside a former CIA National Security & Energy Specialist on how an EMP or coordinated physical attack could collapse the U.S. power grid.
This isn’t casual footage.
It’s technical.
It’s inside-baseball.
And it’s the exact kind of material most people never get near, let alone present.
Which raises some very uncomfortable questions:
Why was she in that role?
What qualified her to brief on national security threats?
Who brought her into that room, and why is none of it explained?
Back then, this clip passed quietly. Today, with everything surrounding her, it ...
