We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
🇺🇸📉💸 Regional banks are facing a perfect storm of credit problems, with commercial real estate loans comprising 44% of their portfolios versus just 13% for large banks. Office loan delinquencies have hit 10.4%, approaching 2008 crisis levels, while over $1 trillion in CRE loans must refinance by year-end in a higher-rate environment.
The Fraud Factor
Recent disclosures reveal deeper problems beyond market stress. Zions Bancorporation disclosed $60 million in provisions and $50 million in write-offs related to alleged loan fraud from its California division, while Western Alliance faced similar issues. These incidents echo Jamie Dimon's warning about "more cockroaches" in the credit market, suggesting systematic underwriting problems beyond economic cycles.
The Concentration Risk
Florida Atlantic University analysis found 59 of the 158 largest banks have CRE exposures exceeding 300% of total equity capital. New York Community Bancorp's Flagstar subsidiary shows a particularly dangerous 477% CRE concentration ratio. Many banks are using "extend and pretend" strategies, restructuring loans to avoid immediate write-offs while masking underlying problems.
The Systemic Implications
Studies suggest a 1% increase in non-performing loan ratios can decrease GDP growth by 0.1%, creating vicious cycles where economic weakness worsens credit quality. The concentration of regional bank problems in CRE mirrors historical patterns from the S&L crisis of the 1980s, when similar interest rate and real estate pressures caused widespread failures.
My Take
This analysis confirms that March 2023's regional banking crisis was papered over rather than resolved. The combination of CRE concentration, interest rate pressure, and emerging fraud cases suggests the underlying problems have worsened. When banks resort to extend-and-pretend strategies while facing refinancing walls on $1 trillion in loans, it creates conditions for a more severe crisis than what we saw in 2023. The moral hazard from implicit government backstops has encouraged more risk-taking rather than better management.
🔗 Hedgie
“Why is this country trying to kill us?”
Major toilet paper brands in America have been found to contain forever chemicals. PFAS cause cancer, hormone disruption and more
Major brands include
- Bounty
- Charmin Ultra Soft Toilet Paper
- Cottonelle
- Quilted Northern
- Scott
- Kirkland Signature (Costco brand)
- Seventh Generation 100% Recycled Bath Tissue
- Tushy Bamboo Toilet Paper
- Who Gives a Crap Bamboo Toilet Paper
- Angel Soft
21 in brands total were found to contain forever chemicals. It should be illegal
Subscribe and share 👉 @StormIsUponUsJM
🇿🇦 Police airlift a crocodile with the body of a 59-year-old businessman inside.
Local police in #SouthAfrica say they suspected the crocodile ate the man after observing it from drones. They then shot it and airlifted it off. When they landed back on the ground, the crocodile was sliced open, and human remains were found.
The remains are believed to be those of 59-year-old Gabriel Batista, who had previously been swept away in raging floodwaters. His ring was found inside the animal along with six other pairs of shoes.
Follow us -> LiveLeak
Illinois: Video Shows Palestinian Police Officer Urging Arabs to Flood U.S. Police Departments
A Palestinian police officer in Bridgeview, Illinois is urging the Arab community to flood U.S. police departments in huge numbers. His blunt message “the more the merrier” has now sparked major controversy.
Read the full story here: https://lawenforcementtoday.com/illinoisvideoshowspalestinianpoliceofficerurgingarabstoflooduspolicedepartments
@police_frequency
📢 🇺🇸 🚷 Congressman Andy Ogles on X:
Excited to announce that my 83-page ASSIMILATION Act has been introduced.
Months of labor were undertaken by my staff, Senator Tuberville and myself in order to GUT the Hart-Celler Act of 1965, as well as scrap provisions of the Immigration Act of the 1990s.
The goal of this bill is simple: end replacement migration and ensure American cultural cohesion.
This bill will end the H-1B scam, ensure migrants NEVER become a public charge, and make America look like America again. FYI, net immigration immediately decreases by 85% under this bill.
Some other things it does:
• National Interest Standard
• Stringent Character Tests
• Mandatory E-Verify
• Ends Chain Migration
• Ends Diversity Lottery
• GUTS Birthright Citizenship
• WAY Tougher Asylum Standards
• Stronger Public Charge Rules
• 10 Year Citizenship Requirement
• English & American Civics PROFICIENCY
📎 Rep. Andy Ogles
BREAKING: US data center construction spending jumped +34% YoY in March, to a record $50 billion annualized rate.
Spending on data centers is up +437% since the beginning of 2021, when the annualized rate stood at ~$9 billion.
This is also up +688% since the start of 2018, when the annualized rate was just ~$6 billion.
Meanwhile, office building construction spending fell -9% YoY in March, to $46 billion, the lowest since 2015.
This means that spending on data centers now exceeds office building construction by $4 billion, or +9%.
To put this into perspective, office construction spending exceeded data center spending by $65 billion, or +650%, in 2020.
AI is fundamentally transforming the US economy.
(@TheKobeissiLetter)
