We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
🇺🇸📉💸 Regional banks are facing a perfect storm of credit problems, with commercial real estate loans comprising 44% of their portfolios versus just 13% for large banks. Office loan delinquencies have hit 10.4%, approaching 2008 crisis levels, while over $1 trillion in CRE loans must refinance by year-end in a higher-rate environment.
The Fraud Factor
Recent disclosures reveal deeper problems beyond market stress. Zions Bancorporation disclosed $60 million in provisions and $50 million in write-offs related to alleged loan fraud from its California division, while Western Alliance faced similar issues. These incidents echo Jamie Dimon's warning about "more cockroaches" in the credit market, suggesting systematic underwriting problems beyond economic cycles.
The Concentration Risk
Florida Atlantic University analysis found 59 of the 158 largest banks have CRE exposures exceeding 300% of total equity capital. New York Community Bancorp's Flagstar subsidiary shows a particularly dangerous 477% CRE concentration ratio. Many banks are using "extend and pretend" strategies, restructuring loans to avoid immediate write-offs while masking underlying problems.
The Systemic Implications
Studies suggest a 1% increase in non-performing loan ratios can decrease GDP growth by 0.1%, creating vicious cycles where economic weakness worsens credit quality. The concentration of regional bank problems in CRE mirrors historical patterns from the S&L crisis of the 1980s, when similar interest rate and real estate pressures caused widespread failures.
My Take
This analysis confirms that March 2023's regional banking crisis was papered over rather than resolved. The combination of CRE concentration, interest rate pressure, and emerging fraud cases suggests the underlying problems have worsened. When banks resort to extend-and-pretend strategies while facing refinancing walls on $1 trillion in loans, it creates conditions for a more severe crisis than what we saw in 2023. The moral hazard from implicit government backstops has encouraged more risk-taking rather than better management.
🔗 Hedgie
🇺🇸 #Oklahoma high school principal (Kirk Moore) seen charging at and disarming a school shooter.
The suspect, identified as 20-year-old Victor Hawkins, was a former student who said he wanted to shoot up the school “like the Columbine shooters did.” While taking down the shooter, Moore was shot in the leg. He is expected to recover.
When the Principal woke up that day, he never thought he would be tackling a gunman.
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💸 Reimagining Bretton Woods
How International Agreement Could Resolve Economic Imbalances
Connectivity Project by Philip Pilkington
The past few years have been ones in which global conflict has flared up in a manner that is more concerning than at any time since the end of the Second World War. Economists cannot offer solutions to all complex geopolitical problems, but they know that trade imbalances tend to vastly increase tensions between nations and make compromise on these non-economic topics more difficult.
Due to the politics and economic structure of the time, the bancor was shelved in 1944. But due to the changes in the global economic system caused by aggressive globalization, there is a strong case to be made that its time has come. Implementing the bancor solution to world trade could provide a new constructive economic vision for a world economy that currently feels chaotic and unmoored. It could provide the keystone to global governance in the 21st century.
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Palantir Just Took Over America’s Food Supply [VIDEO]
Palantir just signed a massive deal with the USDA to take control of America’s food supply data: the company "accelerating killchains" just got the keys to the farm. This is the technocratic takeover of food I've been warning about.
Substack: https://unshadowed.substack.com/p/palantir-just-took-over-americas
YouTube:
