We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
🇨🇳🇨🇳📆📝 — Today, the Fourth Plenum of the 20th Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party, the ruling Party of the the Chinese Regime - the People's Republic of China - is scheduled to start and take place in Beijing lasting from October 20 to 23, 2025.
📝 This four-day meeting, which begins today, represents an annual gathering of the party's Central Committee to deliberate on major policy directions.
The plenum is expected to prioritize economic planning and policy formulation, marking a shift from traditional Fourth Plenums (which often address party governance) toward addressing what the Chinese leadership considers as pressing challenges. Primary topics include:
This will outline China's economic and social development blueprint, emphasizing five core areas:
🤑 Chinese Economic status, as China face deflation and slower growth
🪖 Chinese National security, specially regarding the Taiwan Issue
🤖 Chinese technological innovations, as China and USA embrace a trade war over the Rare Earth trade
🧑🎓 Education/talent development for "new quality productive forces" (reminder, China is dealing with a double front with the lack of jobs for students entering the job market and, above all, the problem of the Tang ping [literally "lying flat"] movement)
💸 Major improvements in livelihoods of Chinese people as China faces deflation
One of the key points of the Fourth Plenum is that it will pave ground for the Formulation of the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030) of People's Republic of China:
➡️ This will outline China's economic and social development blueprint, emphasizing five aforementioned core areas.
📝 The plan builds on prior five-year strategies by stressing technological self-reliance, domestic innovation (specially on the question of semiconductors, a key issue for Chinese economy now) and the "dual circulation" model to balance internal demand with global engagement.
🚫 The meeting could involve high-level reshuffles in the CCP Central Politburo, Central Military Commission, and other bodies, including filling vacancies from recent purges (as Example of recent purges in the military, following removals of figures like Xi Jinping Loyalists, including PLA Admiral Miao Hua) and confirming retirements or promotions.
🔥 In worst case scenario for Xi Jinping faction (Fujian clique/New Zhijiang Army), these moves would signal preparations for the final years of Xi Jinping's Rule and potential transitions ahead of 2027
🇺🇸 #Oklahoma high school principal (Kirk Moore) seen charging at and disarming a school shooter.
The suspect, identified as 20-year-old Victor Hawkins, was a former student who said he wanted to shoot up the school “like the Columbine shooters did.” While taking down the shooter, Moore was shot in the leg. He is expected to recover.
When the Principal woke up that day, he never thought he would be tackling a gunman.
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🇨🇳🛢 How much strategic oil does the world actually have in reserve?
Global strategic crude oil inventories stood at ~2.5 BILLION barrels as of December 2025, according to the US Energy Information Administration.
China holds by far the largest stockpile at 1,397 million barrels, more than 3 times the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve of 413 million barrels, which itself sits at only 58% of its full storage capacity of 714 million barrels.
China added an average of 1.1 million barrels per day to its strategic inventories throughout 2025, with preliminary data suggesting it continued building stockpiles in early 2026 ahead of the Iran War.
Japan holds the 3rd-largest reserve at 263 million barrels, followed by OECD European countries at 179 million barrels.
Meanwhile, the US is releasing 172 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve to suppress oil prices, part of a broader 400 million barrel coordinated release agreed by 32 IEA member nations in March.
🔗 ...
🛢 JP Morgan Warns Oil Market Out of Balance, Prices Must Rise
🔸The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil flows, has removed 13.7 million barrels per day from global supply in April alone. A JP Morgan research note warns the market has no good way to replace it.
🔸Normally, spare production capacity in Saudi Arabia and the UAE acts as the market’s shock absorber. But that buffer has effectively been removed, eliminating the system’s first line of defense.
🔸With spare capacity unavailable, markets turned to inventories
➤ Global stockpiles are now being drained at ~7.1 mbd in April, an extraordinary pace, according to the note.
🔸Meanwhile, demand is collapsing because supply simply isn’t reaching users — “forced demand destruction.”The hardest hit sectors include:
▪️ Petrochemical plants across Asia are shutting down or slashing output as LPG, ethane, and naphtha flows from the Gulf collapse
▪️ Airline jet fuel ...
🛢⛽️ Global oil inventories are heading toward RECORD LOWS:
Global visible oil inventories have fallen -255 million barrels since the start of the conflict on February 27, to 7,864 million barrels.
Total estimated oil draws, including non-OECD refined products storage, have accelerated to 10.9 million barrels per day in April, the largest monthly draws on record since 2017.
Cumulative estimated draws since the start of the war now stand at 474 million barrels, with Hormuz flows holding at ~10% of normal, or 2.0 million barrels per day.
Meanwhile, even in an optimistic scenario where Strait of Hormuz flows begin recovering by late April, it is unlikely to prevent global visible inventories from reaching all-time lows, according to Goldman Sachs.
As inventories keep falling, physical oil markets are likely to require sharply higher prices for immediate delivery, since buyers cannot wait months for cheaper futures delivery when stocks are running critically low.
Goldman also warns...
