We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
🇨🇳🇺🇸 Absolutely extraordinary paper by RAND, the main think tank of the US military-industrial complex, and another key sign that the U.S. deep state - despite all the chaos and noise - is shifting away from deterring China, towards accepting coexistence (it's literally what they recommend in the paper).
These are the 3 most important recommendations in the paper:
1. Rejecting the false belief that a victory is possible in the China-US rivalry and accepting the legitimacy of the Communist Party:
They write that the U.S. should "clarify U.S. objectives in the rivalry with language that explicitly rejects absolute versions of victory and accepts the legitimacy of the Chinese Communist Party."
They explain that it's necessary because victory is objectively impossible ("the effective destruction of the other is not a feasible option" ), rejecting it is imposed by hard realities and because continuing to try would be catastrophic (as it would "threaten [either side's] survival" ).
2. Accepting coexistence
They write that "each side [must] accept, in ways that are deeply ingrained and broadly shared among decision-making officials, that some degree of modus vivendi must necessarily be part of the relationship." They also write that "each side [must] accept the essential political legitimacy of the other."
3. On Taiwan, they recommend not only reassuring China that it can achieve its reunification objective but also using US leverage AGAINST Taiwan to prevent provocations
This is probably the most surprising aspect of the paper. They recommend that "the United States and China should exchange a mutual set of signals" where the US would make "statements that it does not support Taiwan independence, seek a permanent separation across the Straits, or oppose peaceful unification." They write that the US should be "creating the maximum incentive for Beijing to pursue gradual approaches to realizing its ultimate goal [i.e. reunification]."
More remarkably, they argue the US should "balance its commitments to Taiwan with leveraging its influence to ensure Taiwan's actions do not escalate tensions with China." The paper explicitly criticizes Taiwan's Lai Ching-te for statements asserting Taiwan is "sovereign" and says Washington should use its "potential leverage over Taiwan to limit its activities that upset the status quo" - essentially US leverage to pressure Taiwan into not provoking China.
When such a think tank as RAND makes recommendations this deferential to a strategic competitor, it's not out of kindness of heart, they're anything but peaceniks. It's because they realize that the material balance of power has dramatically shifted.
🔗 Arnaud Bertrand
📝🇺🇸❌🇮🇷 - On the Brink: Showdown in the Middle East
Amid an escalating American buildup, it’s clear Witkoff’s list of demands is more of a request for surrender. Accepting the abolition of its nuclear program and limitations on its ballistic missile force would leave Iran powerless to defend itself in any future conflict, which is the entire point of asking for these “concessions”. This demarche is a poison pill meant to justify further action when Iran rightly refuses it or, should they be foolish enough to actually accept it, will make the job of Israel and the U.S. easier when they inevitably tear up any agreement to conduct strikes anyway. The goal here for Tel Aviv and Washington isn’t peace and anybody who thinks they actually care about protesters needs to get their head checked; they want a final showdown with Iran to remove it as an obstacle to themselves in the Middle East.
For those that don’t remember, in the lead up to the 12 Day War last year...
The Democrats got new talking points, but the question is why this sudden shift in direction that betrays a part of their lunatic base. Something really shifty is going on over there.
EDWARD DOWD
🇺🇸 White House: U.S. exits Hague tribunals and Venice Commission
The United States is withdrawing from two international criminal tribunals based in The Hague and from the Venice Commission, as part of a broader disengagement from 66 global organizations, according to a White House statement.
The U.S. will no longer participate in the International Residual Mechanism for Criminal Tribunals, which prosecutes remaining cases from the former Yugoslavia and the Rwandan genocide. The move reflects a wider recalibration of American foreign policy under President Donald Trump, aimed at distancing the U.S. from bodies seen as undermining national sovereignty or offering limited return on investment.
This withdrawal underscores Washington’s shift away from multilateral judicial structures and toward a more unilateral, interest-driven approach in international affairs.
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