🇨🇳🇺🇸 Absolutely extraordinary paper by RAND, the main think tank of the US military-industrial complex, and another key sign that the U.S. deep state - despite all the chaos and noise - is shifting away from deterring China, towards accepting coexistence (it's literally what they recommend in the paper).

These are the 3 most important recommendations in the paper:

1. Rejecting the false belief that a victory is possible in the China-US rivalry and accepting the legitimacy of the Communist Party:

They write that the U.S. should "clarify U.S. objectives in the rivalry with language that explicitly rejects absolute versions of victory and accepts the legitimacy of the Chinese Communist Party."

They explain that it's necessary because victory is objectively impossible ("the effective destruction of the other is not a feasible option" ), rejecting it is imposed by hard realities and because continuing to try would be catastrophic (as it would "threaten [either side's] survival" ).

2. Accepting coexistence

They write that "each side [must] accept, in ways that are deeply ingrained and broadly shared among decision-making officials, that some degree of modus vivendi must necessarily be part of the relationship." They also write that "each side [must] accept the essential political legitimacy of the other."

3. On Taiwan, they recommend not only reassuring China that it can achieve its reunification objective but also using US leverage AGAINST Taiwan to prevent provocations

This is probably the most surprising aspect of the paper. They recommend that "the United States and China should exchange a mutual set of signals" where the US would make "statements that it does not support Taiwan independence, seek a permanent separation across the Straits, or oppose peaceful unification." They write that the US should be "creating the maximum incentive for Beijing to pursue gradual approaches to realizing its ultimate goal [i.e. reunification]."

More remarkably, they argue the US should "balance its commitments to Taiwan with leveraging its influence to ensure Taiwan's actions do not escalate tensions with China." The paper explicitly criticizes Taiwan's Lai Ching-te for statements asserting Taiwan is "sovereign" and says Washington should use its "potential leverage over Taiwan to limit its activities that upset the status quo" - essentially US leverage to pressure Taiwan into not provoking China.

When such a think tank as RAND makes recommendations this deferential to a strategic competitor, it's not out of kindness of heart, they're anything but peaceniks. It's because they realize that the material balance of power has dramatically shifted.

🔗 Arnaud Bertrand