We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
🇨🇳🇺🇸 Absolutely extraordinary paper by RAND, the main think tank of the US military-industrial complex, and another key sign that the U.S. deep state - despite all the chaos and noise - is shifting away from deterring China, towards accepting coexistence (it's literally what they recommend in the paper).
These are the 3 most important recommendations in the paper:
1. Rejecting the false belief that a victory is possible in the China-US rivalry and accepting the legitimacy of the Communist Party:
They write that the U.S. should "clarify U.S. objectives in the rivalry with language that explicitly rejects absolute versions of victory and accepts the legitimacy of the Chinese Communist Party."
They explain that it's necessary because victory is objectively impossible ("the effective destruction of the other is not a feasible option" ), rejecting it is imposed by hard realities and because continuing to try would be catastrophic (as it would "threaten [either side's] survival" ).
2. Accepting coexistence
They write that "each side [must] accept, in ways that are deeply ingrained and broadly shared among decision-making officials, that some degree of modus vivendi must necessarily be part of the relationship." They also write that "each side [must] accept the essential political legitimacy of the other."
3. On Taiwan, they recommend not only reassuring China that it can achieve its reunification objective but also using US leverage AGAINST Taiwan to prevent provocations
This is probably the most surprising aspect of the paper. They recommend that "the United States and China should exchange a mutual set of signals" where the US would make "statements that it does not support Taiwan independence, seek a permanent separation across the Straits, or oppose peaceful unification." They write that the US should be "creating the maximum incentive for Beijing to pursue gradual approaches to realizing its ultimate goal [i.e. reunification]."
More remarkably, they argue the US should "balance its commitments to Taiwan with leveraging its influence to ensure Taiwan's actions do not escalate tensions with China." The paper explicitly criticizes Taiwan's Lai Ching-te for statements asserting Taiwan is "sovereign" and says Washington should use its "potential leverage over Taiwan to limit its activities that upset the status quo" - essentially US leverage to pressure Taiwan into not provoking China.
When such a think tank as RAND makes recommendations this deferential to a strategic competitor, it's not out of kindness of heart, they're anything but peaceniks. It's because they realize that the material balance of power has dramatically shifted.
đź”— Arnaud Bertrand
⚖️ 🇺🇸 🏛 He Who Decides the Exception: Trump Should Disregard the Supreme Court’s National Guard Ruling
⬛️ Judicial overreach mustn’t be permitted to trample the public necessity.
🔶️ The Supreme Court has again reminded the country that, in the American system, the judiciary can halt executive action with the stroke of a pen—this time keeping in place a lower-court order blocking President Trump’s attempt to federalize and deploy National Guard forces to protect besieged immigration enforcement operations in and around Chicago.
🔶️ The point was that a republic cannot outsource its highest political judgments to a tribunal without hollowing out self-government. Put those threads together—Cicero’s salus populi, Aquinas’ equity, Locke’s prerogative, Hamilton’s executive energy, Jefferson’s coordinate construction, Jackson’s independence, Lincoln’s warning—and you get a tradition that modern progressives and libertarians alike often deny ...
This is no longer a red-versus-blue spectator sport or partisan cheerleading exercise. The macro reality is brutally apolitical. The United States is functionally bankrupt, as Ron Paul has warned for decades, and the evidence is now manifesting in collapsing purchasing power. The price of acquiring real money—gold and silver—has surged roughly 200% in just two years, a silent tax that represents systemic looting via monetary debasement. We are drifting toward a sovereign debt crisis unprecedented in the entire history of fiat currency regimes. Even conservative frameworks, like Jim Rickards’ back-of-the-napkin gold revaluation tied to balance-sheet realities, imply a potential trajectory toward $27,000 per ounce. You don’t need to be a “gold bug” to recognize risk management: allocating even 10% of depreciating Federal Reserve notes into real money is simple capital preservation. It’s not about upside speculation—it’s about avoiding total annihilation if real money ...
