We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
🇪🇺⚔️🇷🇺 Brussels feels like a city preparing for war
Though it is outlandish even to type the words, Brussels the international capital—the home of the European Union and seat of the nato alliance—feels like a city bracing for combat. “Europe is in a fight,” declared Ursula von der Leyen.
To be sure, the old flaws of pan-European governance—vapid oratory, bureaucratic turf wars and expensive something-for-everyone compromises—persist. For all that, in the headquarters of the eu and of nato, very different institutions at opposite ends of the city, recent months have seen a stark change of mood.
Europeans “only start organising ourselves when we are threatened”, says an official. The threats are clear now. The most urgent involve three strongmen who view Europe with either disdain or hostility: Presidents Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping. Brussels has come to a grim realisation. War is raging on the European continent, in Ukraine, and none of those strongmen is guided by anything resembling European values.
Few EU citizens must worry about the bottom tier, dealing with such basics as food and shelter for survival. Above that comes “safety and security”, whether that means an absence of war, a clean environment or freedom from acute want. As governments built welfare states and controlled pollution, progressives called for Europe to tackle problems that align with Maslow’s higher needs. Those include “love and belonging”, “esteem” and “self-actualisation”, or the pursuit of a life of purpose and joy.
European voters seem focused on more basic needs. They have elected a string of conservative national governments, who have sent correspondingly flinty politicians to run EU institutions. After years spent passing onerous environmental and social regulations, the bloc now spends much of its time repealing job-killing rules. New Euro-laws that can secure a majority, whether in the European Commission or European Parliament, often involve get-tough policies, like the removal of asylum-seekers.
There is painful clarity about Europe’s defence alliance with America. In the wake of Mr Trump’s latest about-turn on Ukraine, there is exasperation over the time and energy European leaders spend on Trump “damage control”. But grief and denial about America’s unreliability have given way to resignation. It is now a planning assumption that America will give no more aid to Ukraine, and that even its willingness to sell advanced weapons to Europeans for donation to Ukraine will not last.
As for the broader defence of Europe, Plan a is to work with America for as long as possible. Europe still relies on America for “critical enablers” including intelligence from satellites, long-range weapons, air defences, heavy transport planes and the digital systems that glue different weapons together.
There is much talk of building up Europe’s arms industry, but also agreement that it cannot entirely replace America as a supplier for ten years or more, which is too slow for a continent rearming to deter Russia from attacking it. Fear of Russia makes officials wary of even engaging with the most sensitive question of all, whether Europe needs a Plan b for its security, if America walks away one day. Some fear that to discuss American abandonment is to invite a Russian attack. Others seek to identify investments that work with both Plan a and Plan b: either making Europe a better partner for America, or helping it go alone.
📝🇺🇸❌🇮🇷 - On the Brink: Showdown in the Middle East
Amid an escalating American buildup, it’s clear Witkoff’s list of demands is more of a request for surrender. Accepting the abolition of its nuclear program and limitations on its ballistic missile force would leave Iran powerless to defend itself in any future conflict, which is the entire point of asking for these “concessions”. This demarche is a poison pill meant to justify further action when Iran rightly refuses it or, should they be foolish enough to actually accept it, will make the job of Israel and the U.S. easier when they inevitably tear up any agreement to conduct strikes anyway. The goal here for Tel Aviv and Washington isn’t peace and anybody who thinks they actually care about protesters needs to get their head checked; they want a final showdown with Iran to remove it as an obstacle to themselves in the Middle East.
For those that don’t remember, in the lead up to the 12 Day War last year...
