🇺🇸 President Trump just announced the "tariff dividend," a payment of AT LEAST $2,000 per American.

We expect 85%+ of US adults to receive this, resulting in $400+ BILLION handed out.

All as US debt nears $40 trillion.

What's next? Let us explain.

This morning, President Trump made the below announcement:

A dividend of at least $2,000 per person will be paid, EXCLUDING "high income people."

The economic implications of such a massive "stimulus"-like payment are huge.

Especially with markets at record highs.

First, who will be receiving this payment?

Let's take a look at the most recent stimulus payment, the March 2021 $1,400 stimulus check.

Full payments were only made to:

Single filers making up to $75,000, households making up to $112,500, and married earners up to $150,000.

Now, let's apply this same criteria to 2025:

Currently, there are ~220 million US adults who fit these income criteria.

The top ~15% of earners would be excluded as "high income."

220 million x $2,000 = ~$440 BILLION handed out.

And, the check could be larger than $2,000.

These payments come at a time where the wealth gap is at record highs.

In Q2 2025, consumers in the top 10% of the income distribution accounted for 49.2% of total US spending.

This marks the highest level in data going back to 1989.

But, there's a big problem here.

As seen in 2021, stimulus checks massively boost spending.

However, the one-time "boost" is followed by a long period of high inflation.

Following the last round of stimulus, US inflation neared 10%.

Now, inflation is back on the rise, at 3%, and more stimulus is coming.

Trump also states that after this payment, tariff revenue will go toward paying US debt.

Over the last 5 years alone, total US debt has surged +$10 TRILLION.

Since the government shutdown began on October 1st, US debt is up +$600 billion.

Can we really afford more stimulus?

🧵 Kobeissi Letter