We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
What might the next pandemic be?
The next one might be like the last one: it could originate in the banking sector. Earlier this month, I detailed how the COVID 19 pandemic coincided with a gathering collapse in the banking sector.
ECB’s Christine Lagarde soils self
On Tuesday last week (two days before the baroness’s inquiry report was published), the ECB issued a warning that Euro zone banks must prepare for unprecedented shocks causing severe disruptions with far-reaching consequences for financial systems. This is very unusual: banks, especially central ones, usually go out of their way to reassure us that the system is sound, there’s nothing to worry about and we can safely disperse: nothing to see here.
Now they appear to have soiled themselves for some reason (liquidity drying up + a shortage of high quality collateral since the selfish Russians won’t let us have their natural resources). This is probably where that “next pandemic” is brewing up and why it may be necessary to go hard and fast with lockdowns 2.0
We’ve been in a health emergency for 10 weeks now!
The looming banking virus may also be the reason why back in September, European Commission President, the crooked and dishonourable Ursula von der Leyen thought it appropriate to announce in her State of the Union speech before the EU parliament that “We are on the brink, if not even at the start of another global health crisis.” If that was true (of course it was, Ms. von der Leyen wouldn’t lie to us about such serious things!), we’ve been in a new global health crisis for over 10 weeks now. It would be interesting to learn why they’ve done exactly nothing about this global health crisis yet.
It may be that the contagion from the ECB, BOE, BOJ and the Fed could begin to spread rapidly, necessitating urgent and “stringent” measures. The consequences could be similar as in the early 2020, including major dislocations in global financial and commodities markets. Studying the price charts of gold, silver, copper, crude oil, currency pairs, treasury bonds, and equity markets could provide valid guidance for the next “pandemic.”
However, the more radical measures this time could include even the closure of markets and banks that could last days, weeks or months (as in the UK after the breakout of World War I). The troubling part is that this will probably have to be a complete ambush: they won’t be able to preannounce their measures in advance, implying that we have to prepare before the proverbial excrement hits the fan, with adequate amounts of cash on hand, non-perishable foods and fuel for heating and transport. It is entirely possible that the Internet might go down to prevent the spread of misinformation and disinformation too. I suspect that Ukraine’s capitulation and an armistice favorable to Russia could exacerbate the public health crisis Ms. von der Leyen already foreshadowed. https://alexkrainer.substack.com/p/are-new-and-improved-lockdowns-coming
🇺🇸 #Oklahoma high school principal (Kirk Moore) seen charging at and disarming a school shooter.
The suspect, identified as 20-year-old Victor Hawkins, was a former student who said he wanted to shoot up the school “like the Columbine shooters did.” While taking down the shooter, Moore was shot in the leg. He is expected to recover.
When the Principal woke up that day, he never thought he would be tackling a gunman.
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🇨🇳🛢 How much strategic oil does the world actually have in reserve?
Global strategic crude oil inventories stood at ~2.5 BILLION barrels as of December 2025, according to the US Energy Information Administration.
China holds by far the largest stockpile at 1,397 million barrels, more than 3 times the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve of 413 million barrels, which itself sits at only 58% of its full storage capacity of 714 million barrels.
China added an average of 1.1 million barrels per day to its strategic inventories throughout 2025, with preliminary data suggesting it continued building stockpiles in early 2026 ahead of the Iran War.
Japan holds the 3rd-largest reserve at 263 million barrels, followed by OECD European countries at 179 million barrels.
Meanwhile, the US is releasing 172 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve to suppress oil prices, part of a broader 400 million barrel coordinated release agreed by 32 IEA member nations in March.
🔗 ...
🛢 JP Morgan Warns Oil Market Out of Balance, Prices Must Rise
🔸The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil flows, has removed 13.7 million barrels per day from global supply in April alone. A JP Morgan research note warns the market has no good way to replace it.
🔸Normally, spare production capacity in Saudi Arabia and the UAE acts as the market’s shock absorber. But that buffer has effectively been removed, eliminating the system’s first line of defense.
🔸With spare capacity unavailable, markets turned to inventories
➤ Global stockpiles are now being drained at ~7.1 mbd in April, an extraordinary pace, according to the note.
🔸Meanwhile, demand is collapsing because supply simply isn’t reaching users — “forced demand destruction.”The hardest hit sectors include:
▪️ Petrochemical plants across Asia are shutting down or slashing output as LPG, ethane, and naphtha flows from the Gulf collapse
▪️ Airline jet fuel ...
🛢⛽️ Global oil inventories are heading toward RECORD LOWS:
Global visible oil inventories have fallen -255 million barrels since the start of the conflict on February 27, to 7,864 million barrels.
Total estimated oil draws, including non-OECD refined products storage, have accelerated to 10.9 million barrels per day in April, the largest monthly draws on record since 2017.
Cumulative estimated draws since the start of the war now stand at 474 million barrels, with Hormuz flows holding at ~10% of normal, or 2.0 million barrels per day.
Meanwhile, even in an optimistic scenario where Strait of Hormuz flows begin recovering by late April, it is unlikely to prevent global visible inventories from reaching all-time lows, according to Goldman Sachs.
As inventories keep falling, physical oil markets are likely to require sharply higher prices for immediate delivery, since buyers cannot wait months for cheaper futures delivery when stocks are running critically low.
Goldman also warns...
