We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
THE GRID WILL BREAK FIRST
By Shanaka Anslem Perera
Texas just received requests for 226 gigawatts of data center power.
The entire state runs on 85 gigawatts.
Here is what nobody is telling you.
ERCOT's interconnection queue nearly quadrupled in twelve months. From 63 gigawatts in December 2024 to 226 gigawatts by November 2025. Seventy-three percent is data centers. The AI infrastructure buildout is now the largest in American history.
But here is the number that changes everything: 3%.
Of the 226 gigawatts requested, only 7.5 gigawatts are actually connected and operating. Fifty-seven percent of the queue has not even submitted planning studies. Joshua Rhodes at UT Austin called it "laughable." His estimate for what actually gets built by 2030? Twenty to thirty gigawatts. Ten percent of the queue.
The rest is vapor.
Meanwhile, Oracle just delayed OpenAI data centers from 2027 to 2028. The company carries $108 billion in debt. Negative $10 billion free cash flow. Credit default swaps at 126 to 141 basis points, the highest since 2020. And it owes OpenAI 4.5 gigawatts of capacity under a $300 billion contract.
OpenAI loses $9 billion per year. It must grow revenue fivefold in two years just to pay Oracle.
The circular financing everyone fears? We verified it. The $610 billion figure circulating through financial media is inflated tenfold. Actual executed investments: $63 to $70 billion. Still unprecedented. Still concentrated risk. But not the imminent collapse some predict.
The real constraint is not financial. It is physical.
Electrons cannot be printed. Transmission lines take a decade. Generation capacity takes five to seven years. The hyperscalers have the capital. They do not have the kilowatts.
This is not a bubble that pops. It is a ceiling that binds.
Data center vacancy: 1.9%. Pre-leasing: 84%. The demand is real.
The timeline to meet it is not.
Position accordingly.
Read the full article - https://open.substack.com/pub/shanakaanslemperera/p/226-gigawatts-of-nothing-the-physics?r=6p7b5o&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true
China is now closing mosques and converting them into barns for raising chickens as a way to fight radicalism. China officially considers Islam a ‘mental illness.’ Do you like this idea?
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