We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
THE GRID WILL BREAK FIRST
By Shanaka Anslem Perera
Texas just received requests for 226 gigawatts of data center power.
The entire state runs on 85 gigawatts.
Here is what nobody is telling you.
ERCOT's interconnection queue nearly quadrupled in twelve months. From 63 gigawatts in December 2024 to 226 gigawatts by November 2025. Seventy-three percent is data centers. The AI infrastructure buildout is now the largest in American history.
But here is the number that changes everything: 3%.
Of the 226 gigawatts requested, only 7.5 gigawatts are actually connected and operating. Fifty-seven percent of the queue has not even submitted planning studies. Joshua Rhodes at UT Austin called it "laughable." His estimate for what actually gets built by 2030? Twenty to thirty gigawatts. Ten percent of the queue.
The rest is vapor.
Meanwhile, Oracle just delayed OpenAI data centers from 2027 to 2028. The company carries $108 billion in debt. Negative $10 billion free cash flow. Credit default swaps at 126 to 141 basis points, the highest since 2020. And it owes OpenAI 4.5 gigawatts of capacity under a $300 billion contract.
OpenAI loses $9 billion per year. It must grow revenue fivefold in two years just to pay Oracle.
The circular financing everyone fears? We verified it. The $610 billion figure circulating through financial media is inflated tenfold. Actual executed investments: $63 to $70 billion. Still unprecedented. Still concentrated risk. But not the imminent collapse some predict.
The real constraint is not financial. It is physical.
Electrons cannot be printed. Transmission lines take a decade. Generation capacity takes five to seven years. The hyperscalers have the capital. They do not have the kilowatts.
This is not a bubble that pops. It is a ceiling that binds.
Data center vacancy: 1.9%. Pre-leasing: 84%. The demand is real.
The timeline to meet it is not.
Position accordingly.
Read the full article - https://open.substack.com/pub/shanakaanslemperera/p/226-gigawatts-of-nothing-the-physics?r=6p7b5o&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true
🇺🇸 #Oklahoma high school principal (Kirk Moore) seen charging at and disarming a school shooter.
The suspect, identified as 20-year-old Victor Hawkins, was a former student who said he wanted to shoot up the school “like the Columbine shooters did.” While taking down the shooter, Moore was shot in the leg. He is expected to recover.
When the Principal woke up that day, he never thought he would be tackling a gunman.
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🇨🇳🛢 How much strategic oil does the world actually have in reserve?
Global strategic crude oil inventories stood at ~2.5 BILLION barrels as of December 2025, according to the US Energy Information Administration.
China holds by far the largest stockpile at 1,397 million barrels, more than 3 times the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve of 413 million barrels, which itself sits at only 58% of its full storage capacity of 714 million barrels.
China added an average of 1.1 million barrels per day to its strategic inventories throughout 2025, with preliminary data suggesting it continued building stockpiles in early 2026 ahead of the Iran War.
Japan holds the 3rd-largest reserve at 263 million barrels, followed by OECD European countries at 179 million barrels.
Meanwhile, the US is releasing 172 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve to suppress oil prices, part of a broader 400 million barrel coordinated release agreed by 32 IEA member nations in March.
🔗 ...
🛢 JP Morgan Warns Oil Market Out of Balance, Prices Must Rise
🔸The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil flows, has removed 13.7 million barrels per day from global supply in April alone. A JP Morgan research note warns the market has no good way to replace it.
🔸Normally, spare production capacity in Saudi Arabia and the UAE acts as the market’s shock absorber. But that buffer has effectively been removed, eliminating the system’s first line of defense.
🔸With spare capacity unavailable, markets turned to inventories
➤ Global stockpiles are now being drained at ~7.1 mbd in April, an extraordinary pace, according to the note.
🔸Meanwhile, demand is collapsing because supply simply isn’t reaching users — “forced demand destruction.”The hardest hit sectors include:
▪️ Petrochemical plants across Asia are shutting down or slashing output as LPG, ethane, and naphtha flows from the Gulf collapse
▪️ Airline jet fuel ...
🛢⛽️ Global oil inventories are heading toward RECORD LOWS:
Global visible oil inventories have fallen -255 million barrels since the start of the conflict on February 27, to 7,864 million barrels.
Total estimated oil draws, including non-OECD refined products storage, have accelerated to 10.9 million barrels per day in April, the largest monthly draws on record since 2017.
Cumulative estimated draws since the start of the war now stand at 474 million barrels, with Hormuz flows holding at ~10% of normal, or 2.0 million barrels per day.
Meanwhile, even in an optimistic scenario where Strait of Hormuz flows begin recovering by late April, it is unlikely to prevent global visible inventories from reaching all-time lows, according to Goldman Sachs.
As inventories keep falling, physical oil markets are likely to require sharply higher prices for immediate delivery, since buyers cannot wait months for cheaper futures delivery when stocks are running critically low.
Goldman also warns...
