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📝🇺🇸❌🇮🇷 - On the Brink: Showdown in the Middle East

Amid an escalating American buildup, it’s clear Witkoff’s list of demands is more of a request for surrender. Accepting the abolition of its nuclear program and limitations on its ballistic missile force would leave Iran powerless to defend itself in any future conflict, which is the entire point of asking for these “concessions”. This demarche is a poison pill meant to justify further action when Iran rightly refuses it or, should they be foolish enough to actually accept it, will make the job of Israel and the U.S. easier when they inevitably tear up any agreement to conduct strikes anyway. The goal here for Tel Aviv and Washington isn’t peace and anybody who thinks they actually care about protesters needs to get their head checked; they want a final showdown with Iran to remove it as an obstacle to themselves in the Middle East.

For those that don’t remember, in the lead up to the 12 Day War last year there was much reporting of an alleged break between Trump and Netanyahu with Trump claiming diplomacy right until the start of the strikes. At that point, he gleefully admitted it had all been a ruse to lull Iran into a false sense of security. Many Iranian seniors officials died as a result in the initial strikes, having believed they were negotiating in good faith and having gathered to discuss the situation. Everything that is happening now must be understood in this light and, if you need any further confirmation, the U.S. has announced further force transfers today. There is no diplomatic solution to be had, and this next round will be fought with absolute brutality as a result.

What is coming will be incredibly violent and deadly for many as a result, unfortunately.

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🇺🇸🇮🇷⚡️- “U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) completed another round of strikes against Iran at 9 p.m. ET, July 20.
U.S. forces struck Iranian military command centers, maritime capabilities, missile and drone launch sites, and air defense systems to degrade Iran's ability to continue attacking commercial vessels flowing through the Strait of Hormuz.
Commercial vessel transits through the vital international maritime corridor continue. Since early May, CENTCOM forces have helped facilitate the transit of approximately 900 commercial vessels and 450 million barrels of crude oil.
American forces remain postured and prepared to hold Iran accountable for unwarranted aggression toward civilian mariners seeking to freely and openly transit the strait.” - U.S. Central Command.

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Markets

🌆 Market News Digest
[2026-07-19 17:00–2026-07-20 16:30 EST]

🔥 Top Stories
• U.S.-Iran conflict escalates — fresh U.S. strikes, Iranian retaliation, and talks/ceasefire chatter keep markets on edge
• Oil surges on Hormuz risk — Brent topped $90 intraday, WTI near $83, with tanker incidents and Saudi/Hormuz shipping threats
• Trump escalates pressure on Iran — says Iran will “pay” for U.S. deaths; U.S. adds aircraft and signals next campaign phase
• Canada CPI cools — headline CPI eased to 2.8% y/y, supporting easier BoC path and denting CAD
• UK government reset — Starmer resigned; Burnham took over with a reshuffled cabinet, pledging fiscal rules but more flexibility

⛽ Oil & Energy
• Tankers hit / shipping disrupted — fires, explosions and drone threats in Strait of Hormuz, Bahrain, Kuwait and off Oman
• Chevron shuts Petronius output — Gulf platform shut-in as storm risk adds to energy supply worries
• CPC oil loadings suspended — attacks on tankers halt Kazakhstan ...

🛢 Analysts estimate the U.S. has about 43 days until its crude oil inventory is empty.

🔗 Barchart

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Inflation

⛽️ While the price of crude oil is still below the prices seen during the peak of the 3rd Gulf War fighting, diesel prices on the other hand are surging and surpassed their peak in May.

Diesel is the most important fuel for the global economy, widely used in agriculture to fuel tractors and combine-harvesters.

@CIG_telegram

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