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OpenAI falling apart

📉 🤖 OpenAI is 'falling apart in real time' — and the worst is yet to come

Veteran investors George Noble and Michael Burry warn on X that all the signs of an OpenAI implosion are already visible — and the trend is only gaining speed.

What do they mean?

😵 Struggling AI chatbot

♦️ Noble says OpenAI declared “Code Red” in December as Google’s Gemini surged ahead

♦️ ChatGPT traffic fell in November — the second month-over-month drop of 2025 — while Gemini jumped to 650 million users

♦️ Reports say OpenAI’s major 2025 training runs failed to outperform earlier models

♦️ GPT-5 flopped. Users demanded GPT-4o back — and OpenAI restored it within 24 hours

♦️ “The company that was supposed to build AGI can’t even keep its chatbot competitive,” the Wall Street veteran says

🤑 It’s all about money

🔴 OpenAI reportedly lost $12 billion in a single quarter

🔴 Deutsche Bank projects $143 billion in cumulative losses before profitability

🔴 The bank’s blunt verdict:
“No startup in history has ever operated with losses on anything approaching this scale”

🔴 Noble adds that “It’s going to cost 5x the energy and money to make their models 2x better”

😱 When it rains, it pours

Musk’s lawsuit against OpenAI boss Sam Altman and Microsoft heads to trial in 2026 — with up to $134 billion in damages over claims OpenAI betrayed its NGO mission for profit

💭 The AI bubble problem

Burry — a long-time critic of the AI bubble — warns it won’t end with OpenAI:

“The government will pull out all the stops to save the AI bubble to save the market to save the economy,” he says. “The problem is too big to save — by that very same definition.”

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December 25, 2025
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🇺🇸🇮🇷🇮🇱 - WAR IN IRAN | APRIL 1st, DAY 33 RECAP

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🇮🇷🇮🇱 - 14 wounded in Iranian missile strike in central Israel, according to Israeli media.

🇬🇧🇮🇶 - A drone struck British Castrol oil warehouses in Erbil, Iraqi Kurdistan, causing extensive damage.

🇮🇷🇮🇱 - Iran launched 9 missiles towards Israel this morning alone, with at least 3 of them being cluster missiles.

🇱🇧🇮🇱 - Over the past 12 hours, Hezbollah launched counterattacks in Khiam and Qantara, in the Nabatieh direction, southeast Lebanon. Hezbollah recaptured northern Khiam, with fighting ongoing for the south of the town. Hezbollah units also re-entered Qantara; frontline sources reported clashes in the center of the town last night.

🇱🇧🇮🇱 - 48 IDF soldiers have been wounded in clashes with Hezbollah over the last 24 hours in southern Lebanon, according to the Israeli Army.

🇱🇧🇮🇱 - "The Israeli army is barely catching its breath in southern Lebanon, and its resources are less than in the previous round of fighting," - Haaretz....

Blue Owl

🇺🇸 Blue Owl Capital just disclosed that investors tried to pull 40.7% of one fund and 21.9% of another in a single quarter, and both funds gave the same answer, you can only have 5% back, and everyone else waits in line.

This is a bank run, not a normal withdrawal.

Wall Street spent the last decade selling millions of investors on something called semi-liquid private credit, higher yields, steady income and the promise you could get your money back every quarter if you needed it. What they buried in the fine print was what happens when too many people try to leave at the same time.

Analysts who have covered private credit for decades say nothing on this scale has ever been reported before at any major private credit manager.

These funds do not hold stocks you can sell on a Tuesday afternoon, they hold private loans to mid sized companies that cannot be liquidated quickly without destroying the price for every investor still trapped inside.

This product was originally designed for ...

War Time

🇺🇸 President Trump wants to switch to war economy in 2027 with massive increase in military spending and massive cuts to healthcare and other domestic agencies

Once a deficit hawk — he said in 2016 that he thought he could balance the budget in five years — Trump ended his first term with $7.8 trillion in added debt. His 2027 proposal is expected to give an update on 10-year deficit projections currently estimated at around $16 trillion.

The GOP's message for the Midterms will be focused on the "need" for a massive defense build up while the Democrats' message will be focused on affordability.

The fiscal 2027 budget will be the first time Trump puts his second-term governing agenda into one comprehensive document — with the numbers to back it up. The budget he released last year lacked detailed line-by-line spending targets and the economic assumptions necessary to project the long-term cost of his proposals.

Investors in US Treasuries will be looking to see if the debt and ...

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