We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
🇺🇸⚔️🇮🇷 The problems with an air campaign against Iran
This excellent graphic allows us to understand better the issues facing any attempt to strike Iran. Now that we have some sense of the power of the potential force deployed we can highlight a few important points.
600 Tomahawk missiles may sound like a lot but we need some comparisons. In 2025 alone Russia launched 1900-2000 missiles into Ukraine.
But given the patchy air defence in Ukraine we should also count drones. Including strike drones, Russia launched around 34000 strikes on Ukraine.
Needless to say, Ukraine remains intact. The strikes have taken their toll but the country is intact. 600 Tomahawks represent less than 2% of this strike capability.
But Tomahawks are a rare commodity. If the US fired all 600 this would be 10-15% of their total inventory - not total inventory on their ships, the total inventory in existence!
We could add in the aircraft capacities but this is controversial. Risking these aircraft against Iranian air defence - yes, it does exist don’t believe the silly propaganda - is a big proposition. The planes have maybe 600-1000 bombs. So even at an upper-end estimate we have less than 5% of the Russian strikes on Ukraine.
But the real problem is defence, not offence. All in this force has between 1300 and 1500 air defence missiles. Iran has 80000 Shahed drones ready to launch and can produce around 400 a day.
Imagine is the Iranians launched 1000- 2000 Shaheds in the first day. This would attrition the entire battery of the US strike group’s air defence. It would then be completely vulnerable.
The Iranians could then launch more advanced anti-shipping missiles. These are rarer. They have maybe a few thousand. But if they use the drones to attrition air defence they wouldn’t need many. They could also send in the speedboats with short-range anti-ship missiles.
The risks here for the US are unimaginably large. I hope the people in charge understand this. The US Navy failed to defeat the Houthis. Iran is a far larger proposition.
🔗 Phillip Pilkington
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