We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
🇺🇸⚔️🇮🇷 The problems with an air campaign against Iran
This excellent graphic allows us to understand better the issues facing any attempt to strike Iran. Now that we have some sense of the power of the potential force deployed we can highlight a few important points.
600 Tomahawk missiles may sound like a lot but we need some comparisons. In 2025 alone Russia launched 1900-2000 missiles into Ukraine.
But given the patchy air defence in Ukraine we should also count drones. Including strike drones, Russia launched around 34000 strikes on Ukraine.
Needless to say, Ukraine remains intact. The strikes have taken their toll but the country is intact. 600 Tomahawks represent less than 2% of this strike capability.
But Tomahawks are a rare commodity. If the US fired all 600 this would be 10-15% of their total inventory - not total inventory on their ships, the total inventory in existence!
We could add in the aircraft capacities but this is controversial. Risking these aircraft against Iranian air defence - yes, it does exist don’t believe the silly propaganda - is a big proposition. The planes have maybe 600-1000 bombs. So even at an upper-end estimate we have less than 5% of the Russian strikes on Ukraine.
But the real problem is defence, not offence. All in this force has between 1300 and 1500 air defence missiles. Iran has 80000 Shahed drones ready to launch and can produce around 400 a day.
Imagine is the Iranians launched 1000- 2000 Shaheds in the first day. This would attrition the entire battery of the US strike group’s air defence. It would then be completely vulnerable.
The Iranians could then launch more advanced anti-shipping missiles. These are rarer. They have maybe a few thousand. But if they use the drones to attrition air defence they wouldn’t need many. They could also send in the speedboats with short-range anti-ship missiles.
The risks here for the US are unimaginably large. I hope the people in charge understand this. The US Navy failed to defeat the Houthis. Iran is a far larger proposition.
🔗 Phillip Pilkington
NEW - Irish government runs an advert discouraging grandparents from hugging their grandchildren without consent.
@disclosetv
🇺🇸 Teenagers are now facing charges after doing a ding-dong ditch prank with a twist. They showed up in masks, wearing tactical gear and a rifle, or what looks like a rifle.
Two #Delaware teenagers, aged 16 and 17, faced charges after knocking on doors in New Castle while wearing tactical-style vests and carrying what appeared to be a rifle, police said.
This could’ve ended so badly..
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🌆 Market News Digest
[Oct 21, 2026, 06:00–16:30 EST]
🔥 Top Stories
• Gulf tensions spike as U.S. orders Saudi embassy departures — Houthi drone attacks on Aramco/Shaybah, Iranian rhetoric, and evacuation alerts lifted oil-sensitive geopolitical risk
• Meta beats on revenue, unveils nonvoting stock plan — Q3 sales topped estimates, but a $9.9B legal charge crushed operating income as capex/AI spending stays huge
• OpenAI deepens Google Cloud partnership — Frontier models and Codex go onto Google Cloud Marketplace, a notable distribution win for Google and OpenAI
⛽ Oil & Energy
• Saudi Aramco/Shaybah attacked, but operations intact — air defenses intercepted a drone; no operational impact, yet the event kept crude elevated
• EIA crude stocks fall 3.06M barrels; gasoline drops 2.95M — bigger-than-expected draw, while diesel/distillate built
• WTI settles at $97.15; Brent at $108.82 — oil eased late despite supply fears; Kuwait says exports are at prewar levels
📊 Markets & Macro...
🌆 Market News Digest
[Oct 20, 2026 EST]
🔥 Top Stories
• US–Iran tensions swing markets — Hormuz tanker fire, Israel warns of renewed strikes, Rubio says talks are hard; oil stayed volatile even as Brent eased below $109
• Anthropic’s massive AI spend shock — WSJ says it may spend >$600B on compute, with huge cloud/Nvidia commitments and >$80B H1 loss
• Trump on Ukraine, Iran and trade — says Ukraine must make a deal, India trade is “pretty close,” and he’s weighing Iran action
⛽ Oil & Energy
• Hormuz tanker fire / mine incident — IRGC says a supertanker carrying >2M barrels caught fire after hitting a mine
• Europe gas >€90 — benchmark tops 2022 levels on supply fears; US diesel prices remain elevated
• NATO and EU security push — NATO adds Black Sea assets; EU doubles down on Arctic security and keeping fossil fuels in the ground
📊 Markets & Macro
• US housing weakens further — starts fell 5.2% and pending sales dropped 7.3% to a record low, pressuring ...
