🇺🇸⚔️🇮🇷 Logistical Analysis: US Airlifts to Mideast
How bigly is the airlift to Mideast? How many tons did 250–265 flights deliver? Bar napkin calculations
Assumptions: sources differ on totals (250 to 265 flights); using 257 average (≈31 C-5 & ≈198 C-17 flights). Long haul flights (accounting for weight of fuel): C-5: 100,000kg cargo load and C-17: 60,000kg. C-5 is for oversized equipment (THAAD batteries,AN/TPY-2 radar, Patriots, etc.); C-17 is for ordnance, jet support stuff (parts, etc.).
Total weight delivered: ≈14.58 million kg, or ≈14,580 metric tons (say, 15,000mt).
Fun fact: US military sealift ship (e.g., Bob Hope class), can carry 25,000 to 35,000mt; merchant bulk carrier, 50,000mt to 80,000mt; container ship, 50,000mt to 150,000mt. A fraction of Bob Hope class delivered.
Deliveries
Muwaffaq Salti (Jordan)
C-5: 8 flights
C-17: 139 flights
Weight (est.): 8,740,000kg (8,740 tons)
Prince Sultan (KSA)
C-5 : 13
C-17: 12
Weight (est.): 2,020,000kg (2,020 tons)
al-Udayd (Qatar)
C-5: 2
C-17: 16
Weight (est.): 1,160,000kg (1,160mt)
Ali al-Salem (Kuwait)
C-5: 2
C-17: 16
Weight (est.): 1,160,000kg (1,160mt)
Misc (Bahrain, Diego Garcia, etc.)
C-5: 4
C-17: 21
Weight (est.): 1,660,000kg (1,660mt)
Analysis
Muwaffaq Salti is the primary launch point for the war on Iran. Hence delivery of ≈58% of 15,000mt to MS. 70+ attack aircraft are parked at MS, incl. SEAD aircraft.
The number of cargo flights is impressive but overall weight says otherwise. For e.g., one THAAD battery (inclusive of 6 x 8 launchers, AN/TPY-2 radar, gear, etc.) ≈400mt. Each “Talon” interceptor ≈900kg. One Patriot battery (inclusive of components but exclusive of interceptors) ≈300mt. Each PAC-2 ≈900kg; PAC-3 >310kg; PAC-3 MSE >370kg. Details are classified; these are conservative estimates from open sources.
Quantities delivered + existing stocks unlikely to sustain the “long war” that DOD is threatening. If I can make these estimates, Iranian intel has done better. Moreover, they have access to images and SIGINT from Chinese MILSATs and dual-use sats; they can figure out what was unloaded, where stored, emplacements, etc.
🔗 Shivan Mahendrajah
🇺🇸🇮🇷⚡️- “U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) completed another round of strikes against Iran at 9 p.m. ET, July 20.
U.S. forces struck Iranian military command centers, maritime capabilities, missile and drone launch sites, and air defense systems to degrade Iran's ability to continue attacking commercial vessels flowing through the Strait of Hormuz.
Commercial vessel transits through the vital international maritime corridor continue. Since early May, CENTCOM forces have helped facilitate the transit of approximately 900 commercial vessels and 450 million barrels of crude oil.
American forces remain postured and prepared to hold Iran accountable for unwarranted aggression toward civilian mariners seeking to freely and openly transit the strait.” - U.S. Central Command.
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How can this be allowed to happen ?
Dr. Jeff Barke
Mike
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🌆 Market News Digest
[2026-07-19 17:00–2026-07-20 16:30 EST]
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