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🇺🇸⚔️🇮🇷 Logistical Analysis: US Airlifts to Mideast
How bigly is the airlift to Mideast? How many tons did 250–265 flights deliver? Bar napkin calculations
Assumptions: sources differ on totals (250 to 265 flights); using 257 average (≈31 C-5 & ≈198 C-17 flights). Long haul flights (accounting for weight of fuel): C-5: 100,000kg cargo load and C-17: 60,000kg. C-5 is for oversized equipment (THAAD batteries,AN/TPY-2 radar, Patriots, etc.); C-17 is for ordnance, jet support stuff (parts, etc.).
Total weight delivered: ≈14.58 million kg, or ≈14,580 metric tons (say, 15,000mt).
Fun fact: US military sealift ship (e.g., Bob Hope class), can carry 25,000 to 35,000mt; merchant bulk carrier, 50,000mt to 80,000mt; container ship, 50,000mt to 150,000mt. A fraction of Bob Hope class delivered.
Deliveries
Muwaffaq Salti (Jordan)
C-5: 8 flights
C-17: 139 flights
Weight (est.): 8,740,000kg (8,740 tons)
Prince Sultan (KSA)
C-5 : 13
C-17: 12
Weight (est.): 2,020,000kg (2,020 tons)
al-Udayd (Qatar)
C-5: 2
C-17: 16
Weight (est.): 1,160,000kg (1,160mt)
Ali al-Salem (Kuwait)
C-5: 2
C-17: 16
Weight (est.): 1,160,000kg (1,160mt)
Misc (Bahrain, Diego Garcia, etc.)
C-5: 4
C-17: 21
Weight (est.): 1,660,000kg (1,660mt)
Analysis
Muwaffaq Salti is the primary launch point for the war on Iran. Hence delivery of ≈58% of 15,000mt to MS. 70+ attack aircraft are parked at MS, incl. SEAD aircraft.
The number of cargo flights is impressive but overall weight says otherwise. For e.g., one THAAD battery (inclusive of 6 x 8 launchers, AN/TPY-2 radar, gear, etc.) ≈400mt. Each “Talon” interceptor ≈900kg. One Patriot battery (inclusive of components but exclusive of interceptors) ≈300mt. Each PAC-2 ≈900kg; PAC-3 >310kg; PAC-3 MSE >370kg. Details are classified; these are conservative estimates from open sources.
Quantities delivered + existing stocks unlikely to sustain the “long war” that DOD is threatening. If I can make these estimates, Iranian intel has done better. Moreover, they have access to images and SIGINT from Chinese MILSATs and dual-use sats; they can figure out what was unloaded, where stored, emplacements, etc.
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🇺🇸 #Oklahoma high school principal (Kirk Moore) seen charging at and disarming a school shooter.
The suspect, identified as 20-year-old Victor Hawkins, was a former student who said he wanted to shoot up the school “like the Columbine shooters did.” While taking down the shooter, Moore was shot in the leg. He is expected to recover.
When the Principal woke up that day, he never thought he would be tackling a gunman.
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🛢 “Why aren’t oil prices higher?” “How can the oil market be so complacent?”
Oil prices almost always trade to extremes. Right before it does, it always gets “obvious” from a fundamental setup standpoint.
I remember a great conversation I had with Nelson Wu of Open Square Capital about the oil market being analogous to toilet paper. You don’t realize how badly you need it until you run out of it.
Oil prices trade on the margin. As long as there are onshore inventories to draw from, traders don’t panic. It’s when you run low on onshore inventories that panic starts to set in.
Goldman published an update on Thursday that basically captured the storage math phenomenon that we are seeing:
Global visible total oil inventories remain bloated relative to historical standards. If, for example, we had started the conflict with global oil inventories at the 2025 lows, WTI and Brent would already be above $200/bbl.
The ~1.4 billion bbl cushion at the start of 2026 is what gave the US ...
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