🇺🇸⚔️🇮🇷 Logistical Analysis: US Airlifts to Mideast

How bigly is the airlift to Mideast? How many tons did 250–265 flights deliver? Bar napkin calculations

Assumptions: sources differ on totals (250 to 265 flights); using 257 average (≈31 C-5 & ≈198 C-17 flights). Long haul flights (accounting for weight of fuel): C-5: 100,000kg cargo load and C-17: 60,000kg. C-5 is for oversized equipment (THAAD batteries,AN/TPY-2 radar, Patriots, etc.); C-17 is for ordnance, jet support stuff (parts, etc.).

Total weight delivered: ≈14.58 million kg, or ≈14,580 metric tons (say, 15,000mt).

Fun fact: US military sealift ship (e.g., Bob Hope class), can carry 25,000 to 35,000mt; merchant bulk carrier, 50,000mt to 80,000mt; container ship, 50,000mt to 150,000mt. A fraction of Bob Hope class delivered.

Deliveries
Muwaffaq Salti (Jordan)
C-5: 8 flights
C-17: 139 flights
Weight (est.): 8,740,000kg (8,740 tons)

Prince Sultan (KSA)
C-5 : 13
C-17: 12
Weight (est.): 2,020,000kg (2,020 tons)

al-Udayd (Qatar)
C-5: 2
C-17: 16
Weight (est.): 1,160,000kg (1,160mt)

Ali al-Salem (Kuwait)
C-5: 2
C-17: 16
Weight (est.): 1,160,000kg (1,160mt)

Misc (Bahrain, Diego Garcia, etc.)
C-5: 4
C-17: 21
Weight (est.): 1,660,000kg (1,660mt)

Analysis
Muwaffaq Salti is the primary launch point for the war on Iran. Hence delivery of ≈58% of 15,000mt to MS. 70+ attack aircraft are parked at MS, incl. SEAD aircraft.

The number of cargo flights is impressive but overall weight says otherwise. For e.g., one THAAD battery (inclusive of 6 x 8 launchers, AN/TPY-2 radar, gear, etc.) ≈400mt. Each “Talon” interceptor ≈900kg. One Patriot battery (inclusive of components but exclusive of interceptors) ≈300mt. Each PAC-2 ≈900kg; PAC-3 >310kg; PAC-3 MSE >370kg. Details are classified; these are conservative estimates from open sources.

Quantities delivered + existing stocks unlikely to sustain the “long war” that DOD is threatening. If I can make these estimates, Iranian intel has done better. Moreover, they have access to images and SIGINT from Chinese MILSATs and dual-use sats; they can figure out what was unloaded, where stored, emplacements, etc.

🔗 Shivan Mahendrajah