🇮🇷⚔️🛢 Iran’s Red Sea Escalation Options

Since US is bombing Iran from Saudi Arabia, a look at five escalatory options that will have economic impacts on KSA and further choke global oil & gas supplies.

Map shows three maritime chokepoints (nos. 1–3). Two down arrows (nos. 4–5) point to possible targets for Iranian missiles and/or drones.

1: Straits of Hormuz: sealed (pending liberation by USN and USMC)

2: Bab al-Mandab (“Gate of Tears”): can be sealed by Ansarullah (“Houthis”). This may lead CSG Ford and/or CSG Lincoln to fight Ansar, alleviating pressure on Iran. NB: oil carriers exiting Red Sea via Bab al-Mandab are destined for Asia and Africa (mostly allies);

3: Entry to Suez Canal: possible to target bulk carriers and freight carriers sailing toward, or passing through, the Suez Canal (1,350–1,450km depending on location of Iranian missile base). NB: oil carriers exiting Red Sea via Suez are destined for Europe (Iran’s enemies);

4: East-West Pipeline: just as UAE’s Hormuz bypass pipeline from Fujairah was hit today, E-W Pipeline can be struck. This escalation is reversible (i.e., ruptures in the pipeline can be rebuilt fairly quickly);

5: Yanbu South Terminal and North Terminal: hits on Yanbu—depending on severity—will represent a major escalation (damages will take longer to repair). Iran will only strike enemy oil & gas facilities in a “bigly” way if their own facilities are “obliterated.”

🔗 Shivan Mahendrarajah