We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
That means that of the 2.1mn tonnes of urea — the world’s most widely used nitrogen fertiliser — that would normally have been loaded for export over the past two weeks, about half has been disrupted.
At the same time, more than 1.1mn tonnes of fertiliser and fertiliser inputs, including 570,000 tonnes of urea, is currently stuck in the Gulf, either being loaded or already on ships, according to Kpler data.
Nitrogen fertilisers, which underpin about half of global food production, are made from ammonia using natural gas, which has soared in price since the war began last month.
The shortages have begun during the northern hemisphere’s planting season, leading industry executives to warn of lower harvests for staples such as rice.
If the disruption continues, “this will be much worse than 2022”, said Veronica Nigh, senior economist at The Fertilizer Institute, a US-based trade group. “The longer the conflict goes on, the more dire the situation will become.”
The Middle East sits at the centre of global fertiliser and energy supply chains. About a third of global urea exports pass through the Strait of Hormuz, according to CRU. About 45 per cent of global sulphur exports — a key input for phosphate fertilisers — are also shipped through the vital waterway, which has in effect closed.
Qatar’s fertiliser company QAFCO shut its 5.6mn-tonne-a-year urea plant last week after liquefied natural gas operations at nearby sites owned by QatarEnergy halted because of the war.
India has ordered fertiliser plants to reduce gas consumption to about 70 per cent of normal levels because of shortages. Plants in Pakistan and Bangladesh have halted output. In Pakistan, one of the country’s largest fertiliser producers, Agritech Limited, had halted urea production, said people familiar with the matter.
Speaking at the WEF, Savor CEO Kathleen Alexander boasts about how her company is "saving the planet" from the evils of agriculture by replacing real butters and oils with synthetic versions made from carbon dioxide and methane. 😳
"Savor is part of bringing transformation to the food system by re-imagining how we make an entire macronutrient—fats and oils."
"The result is that we can dramatically lower the planetary footprint of our food system."
"Our food system today uses about 50% of the habitable land on the planet. It's 20-30% of our greenhouse gas emissions."
"And we can reduce all of those by 50-100%."
Source
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🌆 Market News Digest
[July 3, 2026 EST]
🔥 Top Stories
• Middle East risk flares — IDF hits Hezbollah sites in south Lebanon; Houthis threaten Saudi assets; France deploys naval/mine-countermeasure assets near Hormuz.
• U.S. oil market scrutiny — DOJ/FTC say they’re monitoring crude for price-fixing/collusion as Brent settles at $72.12/bbl.
• Trump pardons saga — Trump signs pardons for six and faces fresh scrutiny after NBC reported undisclosed stock purchases before tariff pause.
⛽ Oil & Energy
• Gulf crude exports topped 10M bpd in June but remain ~40% below pre-conflict levels; Fitch flags ongoing Iran/Mideast risk to corporates and oil forecasts.
• CMA CGM warns Hormuz transit charges would be “devastating”; Airbus says defense cooperation remains pressured.
📊 Markets & Macro
• Germany’s 2027 draft budget lifts borrowing to €203.7B and spending to €555.4B; euro equities firm with DAX +0.85%.
• ECB/BoE message: inflation still the focus, but Bailey says UK ...
🇮🇷🏆🇺🇸 Iran Is a Bigger Defeat Than Vietnam | Foreign Policy
At his second inaugural, U.S. President Donald Trump pronounced his hope “that our recent presidential election will be remembered as the greatest and most consequential election in the history of our country.” By losing his Gulf war, Trump has achieved that goal. His choice to launch a campaign against Iran was encouraged by others, but fully his own. It has led to a reversal that marks a strategic calamity far greater than the U.S. defeat in the Vietnam War.
Defeat in the Iranian war looks, on the surface, nothing like other U.S. military defeats. The speed of the war and its remoteness have lent an air of unreality to the whole endeavor. The White House has not been burned, as it was in 1814; there have not been protests against a nonexistent draft. The absence of substantial U.S. casualties in this conflict also masks the scale of the U.S. defeat. To be sure, the war has been deadly: Thousands of Iranians, ...
According to The Wall Street Journal, Donald Trump reviewed military options for a full-scale war against Iran to “finish the job,” but has decided, for now, not to move forward.
The report says Trump is concerned that renewed military conflict could hurt the chances of a diplomatic resolution and of dismantling Iran’s nuclear program, and that he’s shown willingness to let indirect talks in Qatar run past the August 18 deadline. He is said to be fine with continuing limited strikes on Iranian targets if Tehran violates the current temporary deal - as it already has, repeatedly.
How are those negotiations going?
Not well. It seems JD Vance’s “historic” face-to-face achievement was a one-off. Washington has been quietly downgraded from talking to the Great Satan to negotiating with the Little Satan instead - a senior Qatari official confirmed that U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met Qatari officials in Doha, but there are currently no high-level U.S.-Iran meetings ...
