That means that of the 2.1mn tonnes of urea — the world’s most widely used nitrogen fertiliser — that would normally have been loaded for export over the past two weeks, about half has been disrupted.
At the same time, more than 1.1mn tonnes of fertiliser and fertiliser inputs, including 570,000 tonnes of urea, is currently stuck in the Gulf, either being loaded or already on ships, according to Kpler data.
Nitrogen fertilisers, which underpin about half of global food production, are made from ammonia using natural gas, which has soared in price since the war began last month.
The shortages have begun during the northern hemisphere’s planting season, leading industry executives to warn of lower harvests for staples such as rice.
If the disruption continues, “this will be much worse than 2022”, said Veronica Nigh, senior economist at The Fertilizer Institute, a US-based trade group. “The longer the conflict goes on, the more dire the situation will become.”
The Middle East sits at the centre of global fertiliser and energy supply chains. About a third of global urea exports pass through the Strait of Hormuz, according to CRU. About 45 per cent of global sulphur exports — a key input for phosphate fertilisers — are also shipped through the vital waterway, which has in effect closed.
Qatar’s fertiliser company QAFCO shut its 5.6mn-tonne-a-year urea plant last week after liquefied natural gas operations at nearby sites owned by QatarEnergy halted because of the war.
India has ordered fertiliser plants to reduce gas consumption to about 70 per cent of normal levels because of shortages. Plants in Pakistan and Bangladesh have halted output. In Pakistan, one of the country’s largest fertiliser producers, Agritech Limited, had halted urea production, said people familiar with the matter.