:
๐ฎ๐ท๐ฎ๐ฑ - 14 wounded in Iranian missile strike in central Israel, according to Israeli media.
๐ฌ๐ง๐ฎ๐ถ - A drone struck British Castrol oil warehouses in Erbil, Iraqi Kurdistan, causing extensive damage.
๐ฎ๐ท๐ฎ๐ฑ - Iran launched 9 missiles towards Israel this morning alone, with at least 3 of them being cluster missiles.
๐ฑ๐ง๐ฎ๐ฑ - Over the past 12 hours, Hezbollah launched counterattacks in Khiam and Qantara, in the Nabatieh direction, southeast Lebanon. Hezbollah recaptured northern Khiam, with fighting ongoing for the south of the town. Hezbollah units also re-entered Qantara; frontline sources reported clashes in the center of the town last night.
๐ฑ๐ง๐ฎ๐ฑ - 48 IDF soldiers have been wounded in clashes with Hezbollah over the last 24 hours in southern Lebanon, according to the Israeli Army.
๐ฑ๐ง๐ฎ๐ฑ - "The Israeli army is barely catching its breath in southern Lebanon, and its resources are less than in the previous round of fighting," - Haaretz.
๐บ๐ธ๐ช๐บ - Trump is "strongly considering" pulling the U.S. out of NATO, in a statement to The Telegraph.
๐ซ๐ท๐ข - France's most popular gas for cars has now reached โฌ2 per liter on average.
๐บ๐ธ๐ฌ๐ง๐ฎ๐ท - "This is not our war; we will not be drawn into the conflict. That is not in our national interest." - British Prime Minister Keir Starmer.
๐บ๐ธ๐บ๐ฆ๐ฎ๐ท - Trump threatened to stop selling Europe weapons for Ukraine unless Europeans joined the coalition to force the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the Financial Times reports. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte referred to Trump's comments on Hormuz as "quite hysterical."
๐ฎ๐ท๐ฎ๐ฑ๐บ๐ธ - Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, in his letter to the American public, said the U.S. is the party that has abandoned past agreements while escalating tensions and called out Israeli influence. Pezeshkian urged Americans to look beyond media narratives, calling for dialogue over confrontation and emphasizing that continued conflict would be more costly than cooperation.
๐บ๐ธ๐ฎ๐ท - Iran is not currently willing to engage in any substantial negotiations over ending the war, according to The New York Times. U.S. officials told the Times that Iran believes it is currently in a strong position in the war and has no reason to accede to American demands.
๐ฎ๐ท - "About 400 cargo ships and others are standing behind the Strait of Hormuz or around the Iranian islands, waiting for an Iranian permit," - Mehr News, an Iranian outlet.
๐ฎ๐ท๐บ๐ธ - An Iranian senior source told Reuters that no discussions have been conducted through mediators for a temporary ceasefire.
๐บ๐ธ๐ฎ๐ท - President Trump said the war was almost finished and that, if a deal was not made, the United States would strike Iranian energy infrastructure. He also urged other countries to try to open the Strait of Hormuz. He repeated points he has made multiple times before and did not declare an end to the war.
๐บ๐ธ๐ข - WTI and Brent crude oil have both surged after President Trumpโs speech. WTI is now over $104 a barrel, and Brent is at $105 a barrel.
Here's our recap from yesterday: https://x.com/officialrnintel/status/2039176734172483725?s=20
๐ฎ๐ท๐ฎ๐ทโ๏ธ๐บ๐ธ What Cards Still Remain for Trump in Iran?
Everything seemed to be going very well for the second round of negotiations between Pakistanis, Americans, and Iranians, until a few days ago, when the IRGC, from what we can tell, expressed strong dissatisfaction with how the process was being handled.
They were especially unhappy that Trumpโs narrative was being allowed to circulate freely and calm the markets, and they decided to intervene.
Trump did not see this turnaround coming. Iran not only refused to attend this round of negotiations but also made it explicitly clear that it had not requested any extension of the ceasefire.
Instead of sitting down at the table, Iran chose to flex its muscles: it paraded a missile launcher through the streets in a mini military display cheered by thousands of people.
All of this happened on the same day that NBC News reported an assessment from the Pentagonโs intelligence agency directly contradicting the public statements of ...
๐บ๐ธโ๏ธ๐ฎ๐ท The Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS) has published new estimates for the number of standoff munitions the U.S. expended during the 40 day combat period of the 3rd Gulf War.
They believe that ~25% of the JASSM inventory and ~30% of the Tomahawk/TLAM inventory have been expended in those 40 days.
The interceptor stocks are even more depleted, with estimates varying from 31-60% for the SM-3 interceptor to 16-32% for the SM-6 interceptor to 52-81% for the THAAD interceptor being expended.
CSIS has calculated that it would take 4 years to replenish the inventories of the standoff munitions used and more than 5 years to replenish the interceptor inventories.
Renewed hostilities between Iran, Israel and the U.S. would see the interceptor inventories go extinct while the standoff munitions inventories would be degraded even further.
๐ Patarames: U.S. airpower can generate vast, destructive firepower
But up until now, it used primarily 'luxury' assets, ...
๐บ๐ธ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ทโ๐ฎ๐ท โ ๐ง ISW on ๐:
"MORE: Ghalibaf publicly defended negotiations on Iranian state television on April 18, arguing that diplomacy with the United States, alongside military power, is necessary to secure Iranโs objectives. Ghalibaf also reportedly criticized hardline officials, including Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) member Saeed Jalili and hardline parliamentarian Amirhossein Sabeti, for their opposition to negotiations during a meeting with advisers, but his criticisms were likely implicitly directed at Vahidi.
US officials separately told Axios on April 20 that the US negotiating delegation thought it was โnegotiating with the right peopleโ in Islamabad on April 11 and 12 but that the IRGC effectively told the Iranian negotiating delegation upon their return to Tehran that they โdonโt speak forโ the IRGC. Senior regime officials, including former IRGC Intelligence Organization Chief Hossein Taeb, reportedly called the Iranian ...