We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
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๐ฎ๐ท๐ฎ๐ฑ - 14 wounded in Iranian missile strike in central Israel, according to Israeli media.
๐ฌ๐ง๐ฎ๐ถ - A drone struck British Castrol oil warehouses in Erbil, Iraqi Kurdistan, causing extensive damage.
๐ฎ๐ท๐ฎ๐ฑ - Iran launched 9 missiles towards Israel this morning alone, with at least 3 of them being cluster missiles.
๐ฑ๐ง๐ฎ๐ฑ - Over the past 12 hours, Hezbollah launched counterattacks in Khiam and Qantara, in the Nabatieh direction, southeast Lebanon. Hezbollah recaptured northern Khiam, with fighting ongoing for the south of the town. Hezbollah units also re-entered Qantara; frontline sources reported clashes in the center of the town last night.
๐ฑ๐ง๐ฎ๐ฑ - 48 IDF soldiers have been wounded in clashes with Hezbollah over the last 24 hours in southern Lebanon, according to the Israeli Army.
๐ฑ๐ง๐ฎ๐ฑ - "The Israeli army is barely catching its breath in southern Lebanon, and its resources are less than in the previous round of fighting," - Haaretz.
๐บ๐ธ๐ช๐บ - Trump is "strongly considering" pulling the U.S. out of NATO, in a statement to The Telegraph.
๐ซ๐ท๐ข - France's most popular gas for cars has now reached โฌ2 per liter on average.
๐บ๐ธ๐ฌ๐ง๐ฎ๐ท - "This is not our war; we will not be drawn into the conflict. That is not in our national interest." - British Prime Minister Keir Starmer.
๐บ๐ธ๐บ๐ฆ๐ฎ๐ท - Trump threatened to stop selling Europe weapons for Ukraine unless Europeans joined the coalition to force the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the Financial Times reports. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte referred to Trump's comments on Hormuz as "quite hysterical."
๐ฎ๐ท๐ฎ๐ฑ๐บ๐ธ - Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, in his letter to the American public, said the U.S. is the party that has abandoned past agreements while escalating tensions and called out Israeli influence. Pezeshkian urged Americans to look beyond media narratives, calling for dialogue over confrontation and emphasizing that continued conflict would be more costly than cooperation.
๐บ๐ธ๐ฎ๐ท - Iran is not currently willing to engage in any substantial negotiations over ending the war, according to The New York Times. U.S. officials told the Times that Iran believes it is currently in a strong position in the war and has no reason to accede to American demands.
๐ฎ๐ท - "About 400 cargo ships and others are standing behind the Strait of Hormuz or around the Iranian islands, waiting for an Iranian permit," - Mehr News, an Iranian outlet.
๐ฎ๐ท๐บ๐ธ - An Iranian senior source told Reuters that no discussions have been conducted through mediators for a temporary ceasefire.
๐บ๐ธ๐ฎ๐ท - President Trump said the war was almost finished and that, if a deal was not made, the United States would strike Iranian energy infrastructure. He also urged other countries to try to open the Strait of Hormuz. He repeated points he has made multiple times before and did not declare an end to the war.
๐บ๐ธ๐ข - WTI and Brent crude oil have both surged after President Trumpโs speech. WTI is now over $104 a barrel, and Brent is at $105 a barrel.
Here's our recap from yesterday: https://x.com/officialrnintel/status/2039176734172483725?s=20
Ukrainian forces have begun training and testing exoskeletons for battlefield use. Soldiers from the 147th Separate Artillery Brigade are using them in the Pokrovsk sector for both logistics and frontline operations. The goal is to reduce physical strain, especially when loading heavy artillery shells into howitzers without automatic loaders. Artillery crews can handle up to 1200 kg of ammunition per day, and early tests show that exoskeletons help them work faster and with less fatigue Above all, by improving the conditions for those soldiers on the front lines who handle such heavy loads, plus the stress of work. Seeking to reduce overall fatigue in the troops
๐บ๐ธ Blue Owl Capital just disclosed that investors tried to pull 40.7% of one fund and 21.9% of another in a single quarter, and both funds gave the same answer, you can only have 5% back, and everyone else waits in line.
This is a bank run, not a normal withdrawal.
Wall Street spent the last decade selling millions of investors on something called semi-liquid private credit, higher yields, steady income and the promise you could get your money back every quarter if you needed it. What they buried in the fine print was what happens when too many people try to leave at the same time.
Analysts who have covered private credit for decades say nothing on this scale has ever been reported before at any major private credit manager.
These funds do not hold stocks you can sell on a Tuesday afternoon, they hold private loans to mid sized companies that cannot be liquidated quickly without destroying the price for every investor still trapped inside.
This product was originally designed for ...
๐บ๐ธ President Trump wants to switch to war economy in 2027 with massive increase in military spending and massive cuts to healthcare and other domestic agencies
Once a deficit hawk โ he said in 2016 that he thought he could balance the budget in five years โ Trump ended his first term with $7.8 trillion in added debt. His 2027 proposal is expected to give an update on 10-year deficit projections currently estimated at around $16 trillion.
The GOP's message for the Midterms will be focused on the "need" for a massive defense build up while the Democrats' message will be focused on affordability.
The fiscal 2027 budget will be the first time Trump puts his second-term governing agenda into one comprehensive document โ with the numbers to back it up. The budget he released last year lacked detailed line-by-line spending targets and the economic assumptions necessary to project the long-term cost of his proposals.
Investors in US Treasuries will be looking to see if the debt and ...
๐บ๐ธ๐ฎ๐ท๐ฆ - Iran is attacking the funding source of the US empireโฆ the bond market
Their plan is quite simple: create a massive supply shortage, which will increase inflation and, as a result, drive surging interest rates that crash the US economy.
The US went into the war in pretty bad shape:
- Debt-to-GDP of over 120%
- Deficits of 6% of GDP
- Rising unemployment
But 1 month of Hormuz being closed made it worse:
- 10-year yield is up ~0.5%
- US endured the weakest Treasury auction in over 3 years
- With ~60% of auctions having a higher than expected yield
For every 1% increase in interest rates, interest expenses surge by ~$310B annually. And because the US government is mainly financed on the short end, interest rate increases directly translate into higher deficits.
Trump can declare victory as often as he wants, but if Hormuz remains closed, bond yields will spike and crush the US economyโฆ dealing a devastating blow to an already declining empire.
๐ Lukas ...
