We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
:
๐ฎ๐ท๐ฎ๐ฑ - 14 wounded in Iranian missile strike in central Israel, according to Israeli media.
๐ฌ๐ง๐ฎ๐ถ - A drone struck British Castrol oil warehouses in Erbil, Iraqi Kurdistan, causing extensive damage.
๐ฎ๐ท๐ฎ๐ฑ - Iran launched 9 missiles towards Israel this morning alone, with at least 3 of them being cluster missiles.
๐ฑ๐ง๐ฎ๐ฑ - Over the past 12 hours, Hezbollah launched counterattacks in Khiam and Qantara, in the Nabatieh direction, southeast Lebanon. Hezbollah recaptured northern Khiam, with fighting ongoing for the south of the town. Hezbollah units also re-entered Qantara; frontline sources reported clashes in the center of the town last night.
๐ฑ๐ง๐ฎ๐ฑ - 48 IDF soldiers have been wounded in clashes with Hezbollah over the last 24 hours in southern Lebanon, according to the Israeli Army.
๐ฑ๐ง๐ฎ๐ฑ - "The Israeli army is barely catching its breath in southern Lebanon, and its resources are less than in the previous round of fighting," - Haaretz.
๐บ๐ธ๐ช๐บ - Trump is "strongly considering" pulling the U.S. out of NATO, in a statement to The Telegraph.
๐ซ๐ท๐ข - France's most popular gas for cars has now reached โฌ2 per liter on average.
๐บ๐ธ๐ฌ๐ง๐ฎ๐ท - "This is not our war; we will not be drawn into the conflict. That is not in our national interest." - British Prime Minister Keir Starmer.
๐บ๐ธ๐บ๐ฆ๐ฎ๐ท - Trump threatened to stop selling Europe weapons for Ukraine unless Europeans joined the coalition to force the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the Financial Times reports. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte referred to Trump's comments on Hormuz as "quite hysterical."
๐ฎ๐ท๐ฎ๐ฑ๐บ๐ธ - Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, in his letter to the American public, said the U.S. is the party that has abandoned past agreements while escalating tensions and called out Israeli influence. Pezeshkian urged Americans to look beyond media narratives, calling for dialogue over confrontation and emphasizing that continued conflict would be more costly than cooperation.
๐บ๐ธ๐ฎ๐ท - Iran is not currently willing to engage in any substantial negotiations over ending the war, according to The New York Times. U.S. officials told the Times that Iran believes it is currently in a strong position in the war and has no reason to accede to American demands.
๐ฎ๐ท - "About 400 cargo ships and others are standing behind the Strait of Hormuz or around the Iranian islands, waiting for an Iranian permit," - Mehr News, an Iranian outlet.
๐ฎ๐ท๐บ๐ธ - An Iranian senior source told Reuters that no discussions have been conducted through mediators for a temporary ceasefire.
๐บ๐ธ๐ฎ๐ท - President Trump said the war was almost finished and that, if a deal was not made, the United States would strike Iranian energy infrastructure. He also urged other countries to try to open the Strait of Hormuz. He repeated points he has made multiple times before and did not declare an end to the war.
๐บ๐ธ๐ข - WTI and Brent crude oil have both surged after President Trumpโs speech. WTI is now over $104 a barrel, and Brent is at $105 a barrel.
Here's our recap from yesterday: https://x.com/officialrnintel/status/2039176734172483725?s=20
Intellectual masking is the deliberate regulation of how much of your knowledge, reasoning, and analytical ability you reveal so that others form a controlled (and often incomplete) assessment of your capabilities.
Its purpose is to manage perception, reduce unnecessary attention, encourage others to reveal more information, and preserve strategic advantage until demonstrating full competence serves your objective.
๐ข We Are 'Still' Going Full Speed Into The Wall
Product storage is about to get tighter unless China steps in and lifts the product export ban. If it does, expect a meaningful reversal in crude.
WTI is barely hanging on to $70 for its dear life, but please remember that consumers use petroleum products like gasoline and diesel; they donโt use crude oil. Refineries do, and this is why it was always important for us to pay attention to crack spreads along with crude timespreads.
Note: Please divide it by 3.
The fever in the market today is that crude is oversupplied, but products are undersupplied. How can this be possible?
Well, Chinaโs June crude import data so far is -4.7 million b/d y-o-y, and teapot refineries are operating at 50% utilization. Compared to US refineries operating at 95% and PADD 2 refineries operating over 100%, you can see where the disconnect is.
But hereโs the thing. If end-user demand isnโt down and you still have a production shut-in of ~8 million...
