We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
🇺🇸🇮🇷🇮🇱 - WAR IN IRAN | APRIL 3rd, DAY 35 RECAP:
🇮🇷🇰🇼 - Iran has struck the Mina Al-Ahmadi refinery in Kuwait. Multiple fires have been reported.
🇱🇧🇮🇱 - “The disarmament of Hezbollah is not one of the objectives of the IDF’s fighting in Lebanon at this stage,” the IDF said.
🇮🇷🇰🇼 - Iran has struck a Kuwaiti power and desalination plant, causing damage, according to the Kuwait Ministry of Electricity.
🇮🇷🇦🇪 - Habshan gas facilities in Abu Dhabi have temporarily suspended operations after a fire broke out due to an Iranian attack.
🇫🇷🇮🇷 - A French-owned cargo ship crossed the Strait of Hormuz earlier this morning. It was broadcasting its position and planned route openly and encountered no incident.
🇺🇸🇮🇷 - A U.S. F-15 fighter jet was shot down over southwestern Iran. One pilot has been rescued, while the second is still missing, according to the Pentagon.
🇮🇷🇶🇦🇵🇰 - “In a dramatic turn of events, Iran has just rejected Pakistan's offer to mediate in the conflict. Qatar will now take the lead ahead of next week's talks,” Intelligence Online reported.
🇺🇸🇮🇷 - Two Black Hawk helicopters involved in the search and rescue operation for the pilots were struck by Iranian forces. All crew are safe and accounted for.
🇺🇸🇮🇷 - Around the same time as the downing of the U.S. F-15 fighter jet, an A-10 Warthog was shot down by Iranian defenses and crashed in Kuwaiti territory.
🇺🇸🇮🇷 - At least one MQ-9 drone was shot down over Iran.
🇺🇸🇮🇷 - Iran has rejected a 48-hour ceasefire proposed by the United States through intermediaries, according to Fars News Agency.
🇮🇷🇶🇦🇵🇰 - After Iran rejected Pakistan's lead in mediation, preferring Qatar, Doha has now also withdrawn from negotiating a peace deal between the U.S. and Iran, complicating ceasefire talks, according to The Wall Street Journal.
🇺🇸🇮🇷 - Iran is quickly repairing missile bunkers, U.S. intelligence says. Iranian operatives have been digging out underground missile bunkers and silos struck by American and Israeli bombs, returning them to operation hours after an attack, according to The New York Times.
🇺🇸🇮🇷 - The IRGC has sealed off a large area in Iran’s Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad province to search for the missing U.S. pilot, along with local security forces and civilian tribal groups, three Iranian officials told The New York Times.
🇺🇸 - On top of boasting about breaking the record for the highest Dow value, Donald Trump can now also claim leading the administration with the highest number of USAF aircraft shot down within 24 hours since Operation Linebacker I in Vietnam on May 10, 1972, when the U.S. lost 11 aircraft in a single day.
🇮🇷🇦🇪 - Emirates Global Aluminium says its Al Taweelah site will take 12 months to restore production after Iranian missile strikes. The complex is one of the largest in the world.
🇮🇷🇮🇱 - Iran directly struck Israel's Negev Industrial Zone, causing a massive fire and damage. It also used cluster munitions to strike multiple locations in central Israel.
Here's our recap from yesterday: https://x.com/officialrnintel/status/2039889605541929005?s=20
🇺🇸 #Oklahoma high school principal (Kirk Moore) seen charging at and disarming a school shooter.
The suspect, identified as 20-year-old Victor Hawkins, was a former student who said he wanted to shoot up the school “like the Columbine shooters did.” While taking down the shooter, Moore was shot in the leg. He is expected to recover.
When the Principal woke up that day, he never thought he would be tackling a gunman.
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🇨🇳🛢 How much strategic oil does the world actually have in reserve?
Global strategic crude oil inventories stood at ~2.5 BILLION barrels as of December 2025, according to the US Energy Information Administration.
China holds by far the largest stockpile at 1,397 million barrels, more than 3 times the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve of 413 million barrels, which itself sits at only 58% of its full storage capacity of 714 million barrels.
China added an average of 1.1 million barrels per day to its strategic inventories throughout 2025, with preliminary data suggesting it continued building stockpiles in early 2026 ahead of the Iran War.
Japan holds the 3rd-largest reserve at 263 million barrels, followed by OECD European countries at 179 million barrels.
Meanwhile, the US is releasing 172 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve to suppress oil prices, part of a broader 400 million barrel coordinated release agreed by 32 IEA member nations in March.
🔗 ...
🛢 JP Morgan Warns Oil Market Out of Balance, Prices Must Rise
🔸The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil flows, has removed 13.7 million barrels per day from global supply in April alone. A JP Morgan research note warns the market has no good way to replace it.
🔸Normally, spare production capacity in Saudi Arabia and the UAE acts as the market’s shock absorber. But that buffer has effectively been removed, eliminating the system’s first line of defense.
🔸With spare capacity unavailable, markets turned to inventories
➤ Global stockpiles are now being drained at ~7.1 mbd in April, an extraordinary pace, according to the note.
🔸Meanwhile, demand is collapsing because supply simply isn’t reaching users — “forced demand destruction.”The hardest hit sectors include:
▪️ Petrochemical plants across Asia are shutting down or slashing output as LPG, ethane, and naphtha flows from the Gulf collapse
▪️ Airline jet fuel ...
🛢⛽️ Global oil inventories are heading toward RECORD LOWS:
Global visible oil inventories have fallen -255 million barrels since the start of the conflict on February 27, to 7,864 million barrels.
Total estimated oil draws, including non-OECD refined products storage, have accelerated to 10.9 million barrels per day in April, the largest monthly draws on record since 2017.
Cumulative estimated draws since the start of the war now stand at 474 million barrels, with Hormuz flows holding at ~10% of normal, or 2.0 million barrels per day.
Meanwhile, even in an optimistic scenario where Strait of Hormuz flows begin recovering by late April, it is unlikely to prevent global visible inventories from reaching all-time lows, according to Goldman Sachs.
As inventories keep falling, physical oil markets are likely to require sharply higher prices for immediate delivery, since buyers cannot wait months for cheaper futures delivery when stocks are running critically low.
Goldman also warns...
