We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
🇺🇸🇮🇷🇮🇱 - WAR IN IRAN | APRIL 5th, DAY 37 RECAP:
🇺🇸🇮🇷 - The NYT reports that during the operation in Iran, two U.S. transport aircraft intended to carry the airmen were disabled and abandoned, then blown up. Two MC-130J Combat King II rescue aircraft and four MH-6 Little Bird helicopters were deliberately destroyed by U.S. forces during the search and rescue mission in Iran, according to ABC News, citing U.S. officials.
🇮🇷🇦🇪 - Several fires have broken out at Abu Dhabi’s Borouge petrochemicals factory, with damage currently being assessed following an Iranian missile and drone attack. This comes less than 24 hours after Israel struck Iran’s largest petrochemical facility.
🇮🇷🇮🇱 - An Iranian ballistic missile impacted the Neot Hovav industrial zone near Beersheba in the first wave, the third time this industrial zone has been hit during the war.
🇺🇸🇮🇷 - "Tuesday will be Power Plant Day and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!! Open the Fuckin’ Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell—JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah." — President DONALD J. TRUMP via Truth Social.
🇺🇸🇮🇷 - President Trump has posted that the Iranian deadline is now Tuesday at 8:00 p.m. EST.
🇺🇸🇮🇷 - Iran has rejected a proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for a temporary ceasefire, according to the WSJ.
🇮🇱🇮🇷 - The IDF has repeatedly said Iran only has a few hundred ballistic missiles remaining out of an original stockpile of about 2,500, but IDF sources have now acknowledged that the exact number is uncertain.
🇮🇷🇱🇧🇾🇪 - "Lebanese [Hezbollah] and Iranian military experts arrived in Ansarullah-controlled Yemen through the port of al-Hudaydah," — Aden al-Ghad.
🇮🇷🇮🇱 - “The IDF does not have the capability to destroy the missile cities of the Revolutionary Guards.” — Israeli media quoting an Air Force source.
🇺🇸🛢 - WTI crude oil futures have jumped to over $115 per barrel, while Brent crude oil futures have risen to above $111 per barrel.
🇮🇷🇮🇱 - Iran launched more than 10 ballistic missiles, some of which contained cluster warheads, in the most recent wave. It is unclear how many were intercepted or impacted, according to Israeli Channel 12.
🇺🇸🇮🇷 - The U.S., Iran, and regional mediators are discussing a possible two-phase deal centered on a 45-day ceasefire that could lead to ending the war, but the chances of an agreement in the next 48 hours are low, according to Axios.
Here's our recap from yesterday: https://x.com/officialrnintel/status/2040641628629565847?s=20
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"The result is that we can dramatically lower the planetary footprint of our food system."
"Our food system today uses about 50% of the habitable land on the planet. It's 20-30% of our greenhouse gas emissions."
"And we can reduce all of those by 50-100%."
Source
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[July 3, 2026 EST]
🔥 Top Stories
• Middle East risk flares — IDF hits Hezbollah sites in south Lebanon; Houthis threaten Saudi assets; France deploys naval/mine-countermeasure assets near Hormuz.
• U.S. oil market scrutiny — DOJ/FTC say they’re monitoring crude for price-fixing/collusion as Brent settles at $72.12/bbl.
• Trump pardons saga — Trump signs pardons for six and faces fresh scrutiny after NBC reported undisclosed stock purchases before tariff pause.
⛽ Oil & Energy
• Gulf crude exports topped 10M bpd in June but remain ~40% below pre-conflict levels; Fitch flags ongoing Iran/Mideast risk to corporates and oil forecasts.
• CMA CGM warns Hormuz transit charges would be “devastating”; Airbus says defense cooperation remains pressured.
📊 Markets & Macro
• Germany’s 2027 draft budget lifts borrowing to €203.7B and spending to €555.4B; euro equities firm with DAX +0.85%.
• ECB/BoE message: inflation still the focus, but Bailey says UK ...
🇮🇷🏆🇺🇸 Iran Is a Bigger Defeat Than Vietnam | Foreign Policy
At his second inaugural, U.S. President Donald Trump pronounced his hope “that our recent presidential election will be remembered as the greatest and most consequential election in the history of our country.” By losing his Gulf war, Trump has achieved that goal. His choice to launch a campaign against Iran was encouraged by others, but fully his own. It has led to a reversal that marks a strategic calamity far greater than the U.S. defeat in the Vietnam War.
Defeat in the Iranian war looks, on the surface, nothing like other U.S. military defeats. The speed of the war and its remoteness have lent an air of unreality to the whole endeavor. The White House has not been burned, as it was in 1814; there have not been protests against a nonexistent draft. The absence of substantial U.S. casualties in this conflict also masks the scale of the U.S. defeat. To be sure, the war has been deadly: Thousands of Iranians, ...
According to The Wall Street Journal, Donald Trump reviewed military options for a full-scale war against Iran to “finish the job,” but has decided, for now, not to move forward.
The report says Trump is concerned that renewed military conflict could hurt the chances of a diplomatic resolution and of dismantling Iran’s nuclear program, and that he’s shown willingness to let indirect talks in Qatar run past the August 18 deadline. He is said to be fine with continuing limited strikes on Iranian targets if Tehran violates the current temporary deal - as it already has, repeatedly.
How are those negotiations going?
Not well. It seems JD Vance’s “historic” face-to-face achievement was a one-off. Washington has been quietly downgraded from talking to the Great Satan to negotiating with the Little Satan instead - a senior Qatari official confirmed that U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met Qatari officials in Doha, but there are currently no high-level U.S.-Iran meetings ...
