We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
🇺🇸🇮🇷🇮🇱 - WAR IN IRAN | APRIL 5th, DAY 37 RECAP:
🇺🇸🇮🇷 - The NYT reports that during the operation in Iran, two U.S. transport aircraft intended to carry the airmen were disabled and abandoned, then blown up. Two MC-130J Combat King II rescue aircraft and four MH-6 Little Bird helicopters were deliberately destroyed by U.S. forces during the search and rescue mission in Iran, according to ABC News, citing U.S. officials.
🇮🇷🇦🇪 - Several fires have broken out at Abu Dhabi’s Borouge petrochemicals factory, with damage currently being assessed following an Iranian missile and drone attack. This comes less than 24 hours after Israel struck Iran’s largest petrochemical facility.
🇮🇷🇮🇱 - An Iranian ballistic missile impacted the Neot Hovav industrial zone near Beersheba in the first wave, the third time this industrial zone has been hit during the war.
🇺🇸🇮🇷 - "Tuesday will be Power Plant Day and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!! Open the Fuckin’ Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell—JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah." — President DONALD J. TRUMP via Truth Social.
🇺🇸🇮🇷 - President Trump has posted that the Iranian deadline is now Tuesday at 8:00 p.m. EST.
🇺🇸🇮🇷 - Iran has rejected a proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for a temporary ceasefire, according to the WSJ.
🇮🇱🇮🇷 - The IDF has repeatedly said Iran only has a few hundred ballistic missiles remaining out of an original stockpile of about 2,500, but IDF sources have now acknowledged that the exact number is uncertain.
🇮🇷🇱🇧🇾🇪 - "Lebanese [Hezbollah] and Iranian military experts arrived in Ansarullah-controlled Yemen through the port of al-Hudaydah," — Aden al-Ghad.
🇮🇷🇮🇱 - “The IDF does not have the capability to destroy the missile cities of the Revolutionary Guards.” — Israeli media quoting an Air Force source.
🇺🇸🛢 - WTI crude oil futures have jumped to over $115 per barrel, while Brent crude oil futures have risen to above $111 per barrel.
🇮🇷🇮🇱 - Iran launched more than 10 ballistic missiles, some of which contained cluster warheads, in the most recent wave. It is unclear how many were intercepted or impacted, according to Israeli Channel 12.
🇺🇸🇮🇷 - The U.S., Iran, and regional mediators are discussing a possible two-phase deal centered on a 45-day ceasefire that could lead to ending the war, but the chances of an agreement in the next 48 hours are low, according to Axios.
Here's our recap from yesterday: https://x.com/officialrnintel/status/2040641628629565847?s=20
Pedophile elites wanted to buy an Island, asked if it "comes with children".
Agent replied, the Island "does have a small school"
They don't know camera was rolling
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🇺🇸 #Oklahoma high school principal (Kirk Moore) seen charging at and disarming a school shooter.
The suspect, identified as 20-year-old Victor Hawkins, was a former student who said he wanted to shoot up the school “like the Columbine shooters did.” While taking down the shooter, Moore was shot in the leg. He is expected to recover.
When the Principal woke up that day, he never thought he would be tackling a gunman.
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Oilprice.com
Two months after the U.S. and Israel bombed Iran on February 28, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for most tanker traffic, forcing more than 10 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude output shut-ins across the Middle Eastern oil producers.
The two-month-long closure of the Strait of Hormuz is longer than analysts had expected at the start of the war. Most assumed back then that the Strait would open by April and producers could restart shut-in wells in May.
Even if the Strait of Hormuz opened to free tanker traffic today, oil supply from the Middle East will take months to start flowing again and reach consumers in Asia, who were the first to feel the supply shock.
The longer the chokepoint remains off limits to most tanker traffic, the worse the scars would be on global supply and economic growth.
The restart of thousands of oil wells across the Middle East would be a big challenge. Some countries would need weeks, but others – like Iraq – many months to bring ...
🍚 War on Iran & El Niño threaten world rice production
Global rice supply is expected to decline this year as farmers across Asia reduce planting areas due to fertilizer shortages and higher fuel costs linked to the US-Israeli war on Iran, while an emerging El Niño weather pattern is also likely to further limit production of the world’s most widely consumed staple.
The impact of the war in West Asia is being felt by farmers in major exporting countries such as Thailand and Vietnam, as well as in import-dependent nations like the Philippines and Indonesia, according to growers and traders. Disruptions to fuel and fertilizer shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a key global shipping chokepoint linking the Gulf to international markets, have contributed to the strain.
Smallholder farmers in Southeast Asia are also facing added pressure as El Niño is expected to bring hotter and drier conditions in the second half of the year.
🔗 The Cradle
🛢 “Why aren’t oil prices higher?” “How can the oil market be so complacent?”
Oil prices almost always trade to extremes. Right before it does, it always gets “obvious” from a fundamental setup standpoint.
I remember a great conversation I had with Nelson Wu of Open Square Capital about the oil market being analogous to toilet paper. You don’t realize how badly you need it until you run out of it.
Oil prices trade on the margin. As long as there are onshore inventories to draw from, traders don’t panic. It’s when you run low on onshore inventories that panic starts to set in.
Goldman published an update on Thursday that basically captured the storage math phenomenon that we are seeing:
Global visible total oil inventories remain bloated relative to historical standards. If, for example, we had started the conflict with global oil inventories at the 2025 lows, WTI and Brent would already be above $200/bbl.
The ~1.4 billion bbl cushion at the start of 2026 is what gave the US ...
