We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
🇺🇸⚔️🇮🇷 The Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS) has published new estimates for the number of standoff munitions the U.S. expended during the 40 day combat period of the 3rd Gulf War.
They believe that ~25% of the JASSM inventory and ~30% of the Tomahawk/TLAM inventory have been expended in those 40 days.
The interceptor stocks are even more depleted, with estimates varying from 31-60% for the SM-3 interceptor to 16-32% for the SM-6 interceptor to 52-81% for the THAAD interceptor being expended.
CSIS has calculated that it would take 4 years to replenish the inventories of the standoff munitions used and more than 5 years to replenish the interceptor inventories.
Renewed hostilities between Iran, Israel and the U.S. would see the interceptor inventories go extinct while the standoff munitions inventories would be degraded even further.
📝 Patarames: U.S. airpower can generate vast, destructive firepower
But up until now, it used primarily 'luxury' assets, stand-off missiles to limit shot-downs
This enabled the chance of a clean, flawless military campaign against Iran
IF losses would be accepted, e.g. ~5-10 aircrafts lost per day, U.S. airpower could fly large-scale bombing raids into Iran with heavy, low-cost munitions like Mk84 bombs, GBU-28s, MOABs and GBU-57A/B MOPs
Only such a sacrificing, high-intensity warfare campaign could disable Iran's Ballistic Missile long-range strike capability
Hence if Trump would accept the loss of several hundred aircraft and their crews he would have a kinetic-option against Iran which does not require war-crimes, counter-value methods.
But 2026 U.S. society is not that of the Vietnam War, to let U.S. seriously think about such a scenario.
🔗 https://www.csis.org/analysis/last-rounds-status-key-munitions-iran-war-ceasefire
Intellectual masking is the deliberate regulation of how much of your knowledge, reasoning, and analytical ability you reveal so that others form a controlled (and often incomplete) assessment of your capabilities.
Its purpose is to manage perception, reduce unnecessary attention, encourage others to reveal more information, and preserve strategic advantage until demonstrating full competence serves your objective.
🛢 We Are 'Still' Going Full Speed Into The Wall
Product storage is about to get tighter unless China steps in and lifts the product export ban. If it does, expect a meaningful reversal in crude.
WTI is barely hanging on to $70 for its dear life, but please remember that consumers use petroleum products like gasoline and diesel; they don’t use crude oil. Refineries do, and this is why it was always important for us to pay attention to crack spreads along with crude timespreads.
Note: Please divide it by 3.
The fever in the market today is that crude is oversupplied, but products are undersupplied. How can this be possible?
Well, China’s June crude import data so far is -4.7 million b/d y-o-y, and teapot refineries are operating at 50% utilization. Compared to US refineries operating at 95% and PADD 2 refineries operating over 100%, you can see where the disconnect is.
But here’s the thing. If end-user demand isn’t down and you still have a production shut-in of ~8 million...
