🛢⛽️ Global oil inventories are heading toward RECORD LOWS:

Global visible oil inventories have fallen -255 million barrels since the start of the conflict on February 27, to 7,864 million barrels.

Total estimated oil draws, including non-OECD refined products storage, have accelerated to 10.9 million barrels per day in April, the largest monthly draws on record since 2017.

Cumulative estimated draws since the start of the war now stand at 474 million barrels, with Hormuz flows holding at ~10% of normal, or 2.0 million barrels per day.

Meanwhile, even in an optimistic scenario where Strait of Hormuz flows begin recovering by late April, it is unlikely to prevent global visible inventories from reaching all-time lows, according to Goldman Sachs.

As inventories keep falling, physical oil markets are likely to require sharply higher prices for immediate delivery, since buyers cannot wait months for cheaper futures delivery when stocks are running critically low.

Goldman also warns that inventories cannot keep falling forever, and once they approach the minimum level needed to keep global supply chains running, the only way the market can rebalance is by destroying demand.

The global oil buffer is disappearing fast, which means oil prices are set to rise further.

🔗 Global Markets Investor