We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
Oilprice.com
Two months after the U.S. and Israel bombed Iran on February 28, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for most tanker traffic, forcing more than 10 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude output shut-ins across the Middle Eastern oil producers.
The two-month-long closure of the Strait of Hormuz is longer than analysts had expected at the start of the war. Most assumed back then that the Strait would open by April and producers could restart shut-in wells in May.
Even if the Strait of Hormuz opened to free tanker traffic today, oil supply from the Middle East will take months to start flowing again and reach consumers in Asia, who were the first to feel the supply shock.
The longer the chokepoint remains off limits to most tanker traffic, the worse the scars would be on global supply and economic growth.
The restart of thousands of oil wells across the Middle East would be a big challenge. Some countries would need weeks, but others – like Iraq – many months to bring wells back online, analysts and officials say.
Some wells may have been damaged, permanently, due to the hasty shut-ins in the early days of the war. Others will need new interventions and drilling to unclog, and output would not immediately return, even if the Strait of Hormuz is open unconditionally to all vessel traffic.
The oil market has lost hundreds of millions of barrels of crude since the war began. Losses are growing by the hour, and oil market participants may have finally caught up on the huge loss of supply that won’t be returning for months, even if the Strait of Hormuz reopened unconditionally today.
“In round numbers, the 1 billion [barrels] is baked in now because we have probably lost 600 million to 700 million at this stage, but by the time things get moving again, if they get moving again, it takes time to bring all back,” Vitol’s Hardy told the FT Commodities Global Summit.
🇲🇽- Mexican Cartel Drone Operator seen stalking a Mexican Marine Convoy in Mazatlán.
This isn’t much of a surprise, Cartel members have reportedly been joining the Ukrainian Foreign Legions en masse to hone drone operation and close quarters combat skills.
Since many of them are starting to return home, and now training other members of their cartels, i wouldn’t be shocked to see a new level of militarization in these organizations.
📝 🇪🇺 🇫🇷 Mario Nawfal on X: Europe's riots are just the beginning. The real economic shock hasn't even arrived yet.
I spoke with economist Philip Pilkington about the unrest spreading across France, Italy and Albania.
He thinks we're watching the early stages of something much bigger.
One statistic really caught my attention.
According to Pilkington, France's inflation-adjusted household food consumption has fallen roughly 6.4% since 2022. He suspects the poorest households have suffered far steeper cuts.
Now add another surge in energy prices.
Pilkington pointed to rice futures rising 70% this year, wheat and sugar climbing 40%, and fertilizer shortages threatening next year's harvest.
His prediction is that the worst food inflation could arrive this winter or next spring.
And there's a political problem sitting right on top of it.
Governments across Europe are already deeply unpopular. People are struggling to afford basic necessities, and another prolonged energy ...
🇨🇦🇨🇦🗳 Alberta votes on leaving Canada; separatist movement likely to outlast expected defeat
Alberta holds a nonbinding referendum on Monday on whether the western province should secede from Canada, a debate many believe will not be settled by what is widely expected to be a defeat for the separatist cause.
Polls have consistently shown that a majority of Alberta voters oppose splitting from Canada. Economic grievances have fueled the independence campaign in the province, which is home to 5 million people and slightly smaller than Texas despite having one-sixth the population.
The Alberta separatist movement adds to the pressures on Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, who has made defending Canada's sovereignty a central mission as he confronts US tariffs and President Donald Trump's repeated calls for Canada to become the 51st state.
Many Alberta separatists believe the Liberal Party-led federal government in Ottawa has constrained the Conservative-governed ...
My jaw literally dropped listening to this
There is a Muslim pilot who works for United Airlines that regularly makes pro-terrorist organizations posts on his social media
The Muslims name is Ibrahim Mossallam. He works on the Board of CAIR New York, which is linked to the Muslim Brotherhood
He made an October 7, 2023 Facebook post calling the Hamas attacks “resistance by a brave people.” United suspended him with pay while investigating but the Pilots Union got him his job back and he went back to flying planes in America
Since then the pilot has been temporarily resuspended for flying because of his extreme religious beliefs and posts but he is 100% still employed. He is still getting paid on suspension
I looked into this guy and he is VERY involved in Muslim organizations
- CAIR-NY lists him as Board Vice-President and describes him as a professional international airline pilot who is “very active in shaping the Muslim youth community.”
- He has also been listed as a board ...
