We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
🇺🇸🛢 The most visible oil inventories are about to plummet
Several things need to be noted first before looking at tanker data:
We are still offloading some of the tankers inbound laden with crude. These are temporarily keeping US crude imports elevated. The same VLCCs discharging crude turn into export volumes in 1-2 weeks.
We have an armada of empty VLCCs headed for the US, which will drain US commercial crude inventories dry.
All the while, we will continue to drain product inventories in the US. Petroleum product exports are expected to remain near all-time highs.
The snapshot above is our preliminary US crude storage estimate for next week, which includes 7.1 million bbls from the SPR. The final SPR release figure could be higher next Monday, so we will have finalized estimates out by then.
What’s not shown above is what happens to US commercial crude storage when 1) US refinery throughput ramps up to 16.8 to 17 million b/d and 2) US crude imports fall to 5.5 million b/d due to lower inbound crude flows.
The net impact on US commercial crude inventories by the middle of May is as high as 12 million bbls.
In essence, there could be EIA oil storage reports showing -10 to -12 million bbls of crude WITH a SPR release of 10 million bbls. This would put the cumulative crude draw at 20 to 22 million bbls.
And since I’m a numbers guy, let’s just say this. Since EIA started publishing the weekly oil data in 1982, there have been 41 weekly crude draws of over 10 million bbls. The largest ever recorded crude draw (commercial + SPR) was on the week of July 28, 2023, and this week’s EIA oil storage report (-13.355 million bbls) already ranks as the 6th largest crude draw in history.
I guess we are really doing this. We are really going to just watch the Strait of Hormuz stay closed, and onshore oil inventories plummet. US product storage is already approaching seasonal lows for this time of year, and the next few weeks will push us into brand-new territory.
I still see commentary about comparisons to 2022. The absurdity of those comments fails to recognize that this is not even remotely similar.
🔗 https://www.hfir.com/p/public-memo-i-cant-believe-we-are
IN 2006, RESEARCHER CLEVE BACKSTER — THE MAN WHO INVENTED THE CIA'S LIE DETECTOR PROTOCOLS — PUBLISHED 36 YEARS OF EXPERIMENTS PROVING THAT PLANTS, BACTERIA, AND HUMAN CELLS IN PETRI DISHES RESPOND INSTANTANEOUSLY TO HUMAN THOUGHT AND EMOTION — EVEN AT DISTANCES OF HUNDREDS OF MILES. THE SIGNAL IS FASTER THAN LIGHT. IT DOES NOT DIMINISH WITH DISTANCE. IT IS NOT ELECTROMAGNETIC.
In 1966, Cleve Backster was the world's foremost expert on polygraph technology. He had developed the interrogation techniques used by the CIA, FBI, and U.S. military. He understood galvanic skin response — the electrical conductance of biological tissue — better than anyone alive.
One morning, on a whim, he attached polygraph electrodes to a Dracaena plant in his office. He watered it and watched the tracing. Then he thought: "I wonder what would happen if I threatened this plant." He decided to burn a leaf with a match.
The instant he formed the intention — before he moved, before he lit the match, before any ...
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