We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
✈️ 🇪🇺 🛢 As airlines ground planes and officials urge citizens to cut back on their commutes, Europe’s effort to prevent shortages caused by the Iran war is running into an unexpected hitch:
Europe doesn’t know how much fuel it has
The scramble comes as the war in Iran drives up Europe’s fossil fuel bill and threatens to choke off supplies moving through the Strait of Hormuz, a key artery for oil and gas. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said Wednesday that the conflict is costing the EU nearly €500 million a day in higher energy costs, even as U.S. President Donald Trump has ordered his aides to prepare for a prolonged blockade of Iran that could further disrupt global energy markets.
“In Europe, we have visibility and commitments into May and June … what happens beyond is hard to forecast,” Tobias Meyer, chief executive of DHL Group, said during a press breakfast attended by POLITICO earlier this month. “There are strategic reserves, but there's not much visibility on how much has been drawn.”
At a high-level summit last month, ministers from Belgium, the Netherlands and Spain called attention to these knowledge gaps, urging the EU to coordinate more real-time monitoring and analysis, particularly around refined products, according to minutes seen by POLITICO. Greece's delegate went so far as to ask the Commission to set up a WhatsApp or Signal channel between member countries and the EU executive.
Tracking jet fuel stocks — held primarily in fixed-roof tanks — is “much more difficult,” Falakshahi said. Data on the fuel is drawn largely from voluntary disclosures by companies, and the lack of transparency is consistent with ongoing disagreements over how much fuel Europe has left.
Speaking at the WEF, Savor CEO Kathleen Alexander boasts about how her company is "saving the planet" from the evils of agriculture by replacing real butters and oils with synthetic versions made from carbon dioxide and methane. 😳
"Savor is part of bringing transformation to the food system by re-imagining how we make an entire macronutrient—fats and oils."
"The result is that we can dramatically lower the planetary footprint of our food system."
"Our food system today uses about 50% of the habitable land on the planet. It's 20-30% of our greenhouse gas emissions."
"And we can reduce all of those by 50-100%."
Source
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[July 3, 2026 EST]
🔥 Top Stories
• Middle East risk flares — IDF hits Hezbollah sites in south Lebanon; Houthis threaten Saudi assets; France deploys naval/mine-countermeasure assets near Hormuz.
• U.S. oil market scrutiny — DOJ/FTC say they’re monitoring crude for price-fixing/collusion as Brent settles at $72.12/bbl.
• Trump pardons saga — Trump signs pardons for six and faces fresh scrutiny after NBC reported undisclosed stock purchases before tariff pause.
⛽ Oil & Energy
• Gulf crude exports topped 10M bpd in June but remain ~40% below pre-conflict levels; Fitch flags ongoing Iran/Mideast risk to corporates and oil forecasts.
• CMA CGM warns Hormuz transit charges would be “devastating”; Airbus says defense cooperation remains pressured.
📊 Markets & Macro
• Germany’s 2027 draft budget lifts borrowing to €203.7B and spending to €555.4B; euro equities firm with DAX +0.85%.
• ECB/BoE message: inflation still the focus, but Bailey says UK ...
🇮🇷🏆🇺🇸 Iran Is a Bigger Defeat Than Vietnam | Foreign Policy
At his second inaugural, U.S. President Donald Trump pronounced his hope “that our recent presidential election will be remembered as the greatest and most consequential election in the history of our country.” By losing his Gulf war, Trump has achieved that goal. His choice to launch a campaign against Iran was encouraged by others, but fully his own. It has led to a reversal that marks a strategic calamity far greater than the U.S. defeat in the Vietnam War.
Defeat in the Iranian war looks, on the surface, nothing like other U.S. military defeats. The speed of the war and its remoteness have lent an air of unreality to the whole endeavor. The White House has not been burned, as it was in 1814; there have not been protests against a nonexistent draft. The absence of substantial U.S. casualties in this conflict also masks the scale of the U.S. defeat. To be sure, the war has been deadly: Thousands of Iranians, ...
According to The Wall Street Journal, Donald Trump reviewed military options for a full-scale war against Iran to “finish the job,” but has decided, for now, not to move forward.
The report says Trump is concerned that renewed military conflict could hurt the chances of a diplomatic resolution and of dismantling Iran’s nuclear program, and that he’s shown willingness to let indirect talks in Qatar run past the August 18 deadline. He is said to be fine with continuing limited strikes on Iranian targets if Tehran violates the current temporary deal - as it already has, repeatedly.
How are those negotiations going?
Not well. It seems JD Vance’s “historic” face-to-face achievement was a one-off. Washington has been quietly downgraded from talking to the Great Satan to negotiating with the Little Satan instead - a senior Qatari official confirmed that U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met Qatari officials in Doha, but there are currently no high-level U.S.-Iran meetings ...
