We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
📝 🛢 📈 Oil prices will rise to at least $140 per barrel by June if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened by July, and will not return to pre-Iran War levels before 2028 even in a best-case scenario, predicts Goldman Sachs. It warns of price surges and major economic impacts.
The Iran War is predicted by Goldman to permanently add at least $9 to the cost of a barrel of oil – equivalent to an extra 20 cents per gallon for gasoline in the US, or 5 cents/pence per litre for petrol in the EU and UK. This is forecast to persist for years.
Goldman warns that the full economic impact is likely underappreciated given refined product shortages, record inventory draws, and the potential for non-linear price responses. It notes a record gap between crude and fuel prices, highlighting the likely economic pain.
It forecasts a large amount of demand destruction, particularly in the regions most exposed – the Middle East, South Korea, Japan, and Africa – but warns that even sharper demand losses could be required if the shock persists, which would imply deeper economic damage.
Markets have not yet caught up with this reality. As Trafigura Group Chief Economist Saad Rahim, has said, "The scale seems to be something where the market can’t actually get its head around it, so there is the real disconnect between perception and reality right now."
📎 ChrisO_wiki
NEW - Irish government runs an advert discouraging grandparents from hugging their grandchildren without consent.
@disclosetv
🇺🇸 Teenagers are now facing charges after doing a ding-dong ditch prank with a twist. They showed up in masks, wearing tactical gear and a rifle, or what looks like a rifle.
Two #Delaware teenagers, aged 16 and 17, faced charges after knocking on doors in New Castle while wearing tactical-style vests and carrying what appeared to be a rifle, police said.
This could’ve ended so badly..
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🌆 Market News Digest
[Oct 21, 2026, 06:00–16:30 EST]
🔥 Top Stories
• Gulf tensions spike as U.S. orders Saudi embassy departures — Houthi drone attacks on Aramco/Shaybah, Iranian rhetoric, and evacuation alerts lifted oil-sensitive geopolitical risk
• Meta beats on revenue, unveils nonvoting stock plan — Q3 sales topped estimates, but a $9.9B legal charge crushed operating income as capex/AI spending stays huge
• OpenAI deepens Google Cloud partnership — Frontier models and Codex go onto Google Cloud Marketplace, a notable distribution win for Google and OpenAI
⛽ Oil & Energy
• Saudi Aramco/Shaybah attacked, but operations intact — air defenses intercepted a drone; no operational impact, yet the event kept crude elevated
• EIA crude stocks fall 3.06M barrels; gasoline drops 2.95M — bigger-than-expected draw, while diesel/distillate built
• WTI settles at $97.15; Brent at $108.82 — oil eased late despite supply fears; Kuwait says exports are at prewar levels
📊 Markets & Macro...
🌆 Market News Digest
[Oct 20, 2026 EST]
🔥 Top Stories
• US–Iran tensions swing markets — Hormuz tanker fire, Israel warns of renewed strikes, Rubio says talks are hard; oil stayed volatile even as Brent eased below $109
• Anthropic’s massive AI spend shock — WSJ says it may spend >$600B on compute, with huge cloud/Nvidia commitments and >$80B H1 loss
• Trump on Ukraine, Iran and trade — says Ukraine must make a deal, India trade is “pretty close,” and he’s weighing Iran action
⛽ Oil & Energy
• Hormuz tanker fire / mine incident — IRGC says a supertanker carrying >2M barrels caught fire after hitting a mine
• Europe gas >€90 — benchmark tops 2022 levels on supply fears; US diesel prices remain elevated
• NATO and EU security push — NATO adds Black Sea assets; EU doubles down on Arctic security and keeping fossil fuels in the ground
📊 Markets & Macro
• US housing weakens further — starts fell 5.2% and pending sales dropped 7.3% to a record low, pressuring ...
