📝 🛢 📈 Oil prices will rise to at least $140 per barrel by June if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened by July, and will not return to pre-Iran War levels before 2028 even in a best-case scenario, predicts Goldman Sachs. It warns of price surges and major economic impacts.

The Iran War is predicted by Goldman to permanently add at least $9 to the cost of a barrel of oil – equivalent to an extra 20 cents per gallon for gasoline in the US, or 5 cents/pence per litre for petrol in the EU and UK. This is forecast to persist for years.

Goldman warns that the full economic impact is likely underappreciated given refined product shortages, record inventory draws, and the potential for non-linear price responses. It notes a record gap between crude and fuel prices, highlighting the likely economic pain.

It forecasts a large amount of demand destruction, particularly in the regions most exposed – the Middle East, South Korea, Japan, and Africa – but warns that even sharper demand losses could be required if the shock persists, which would imply deeper economic damage.

Markets have not yet caught up with this reality. As Trafigura Group Chief Economist Saad Rahim, has said, "The scale seems to be something where the market can’t actually get its head around it, so there is the real disconnect between perception and reality right now."

📎 ChrisO_wiki