We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
Mosab Hassan Yousef on X:
The Secret Plan to Install Ahmadinejad as Iran’s Leader, And Why It Collapsed
A senior Israeli intelligence figure has now confirmed what was hidden during the recent war: Israel and the United States went into the conflict with a concrete plan to overthrow the Iranian regime and install former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as the transitional leader.
Maj. Gen. (res.) Tamir Hayman, who headed Military Intelligence during Operation Roaring Lion, spoke openly on PBS’s Firing Line about the multi-stage operation that was supposed to follow the initial strikes.
Ahmadinejad had been consulted in advance and was initially willing to play the role. The plan even included a targeted Israeli strike on his home in Tehran on the very first day of the war, February 28 designed to free him from house arrest so he could publicly emerge as the new face of power.
But the real centerpiece of the entire sequence was something far more ambitious: a Kurdish military invasion into northwestern Iran. The goal was to ignite rebellions among Iran’s oppressed ethnic minorities, pin down large numbers of IRGC and Basij forces, create internal chaos, and open the door for regime collapse from within.
The plan never got that far. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan saw any Kurdish advance as a direct threat to Turkey’s stability and interests. He personally convinced President Trump to cancel the Kurdish invasion. Once that opening move was removed, the whole sequence fell apart.
Ahmadinejad himself was injured in the Israeli strike meant to liberate him. He survived, went underground, and quickly distanced himself from any further cooperation. He is alive today. What was intended as a clean “jailbreak” became a near-death experience that ended his involvement.
I personally met with Iranian Kurdish leaders in Erbil during the first two weeks of the war, under IRGC fire on the Iraqi-Iranian border. I saw the real potential on the ground, the networks, the motivation, and the strategic value of using internal pressure from Iran’s minorities. Kurdish forces were willing and ready to move.
Trump had the chance to change the equation decisively. When Erdoğan pushed back, he blinked. That was the moment the operation lost its strategic backbone. Israel had no plans to strike Iran early this year.
Trump, emboldened by his success in Venezuela, wanted another quick win. When faced with real challenges, he abandoned the main pillar of the plan.
The regime survived because the Kurdish card, the only serious internal lever available was removed before it could be played.
President Trump turned a potential historic opportunity into a strategic defeat through impatience and poor war management. He is now desperately seeking an exit to save face, while the Iranian regime remains intact and more dangerous.
This is not theory. This is what actually happened.
Inflation in Europe is rising rapidly:
Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Input Prices spiked to 80 points in May, the highest since May 2022.
This also marks the largest monthly increase in costs for firms over the last 4 years.
Furthermore, PMI Output Prices surged to 62 points, the highest in 3.5 years.
The rate companies are increasing the prices they charge for goods they produce has surged +12 points, or +24%, since the start of 2026.
This surge has been primarily driven by rising energy and raw material costs.
Meanwhile, supply chain delays are up to the highest level since the pandemic supply squeeze of 2022, adding further pressure on prices.
As a result, factories are forced to pass higher costs on to customers, which will push inflation even higher over the next few months.
Price pressures across Europe are accelerating.
(@TheKobeissiLetter)
US inflation is set to rise further:
ISM Services Prices rose +0.6 points in May, to 71.3, the highest since August 2022.
Since February, the index has risen +8.3 points, the biggest 3-month increase since 2021.
Diesel, gasoline, oil, and related commodities were the most frequently cited as "up in price" in the survey.
In May alone, no commodities were reported as "down in price."
Historically, rapidly rising services prices have led CPI inflation with a ~3-month lag.
The current reading suggests CPI could rise above 5.0% for the first time since early 2023, from the 3.8% seen in April.
Inflation pressures are mounting.
(@TheKobeissiLetter)
🛢 How Long Can Demand Destruction Keep a Lid on Oil Prices?
In a somewhat puzzling market development, oil prices haven't spiked yet to record highs amid the worst supply disruption in history.
That's because the market still hopes for a quick resolution to the Strait of Hormuz crisis (for more than three months now), global inventories have offered a supply buffer, the world's top crude importer, China, is staying away from spot purchases, and last but not least, demand destruction is accelerating amid the high prices.
The oversupply with which the market faced the beginning of the Iran war has helped to ease the upward pressure on oil prices as the conflict enters its fourth month. But global stocks, except in China, are being depleted at a record pace, suggesting that the buffer is stretching thin and the true magnitude of the supply loss will hit the market very soon.
Excluding China, which has accumulated large buffer stocks of more than 1.2 billion barrels over the past year, the rest of the ...
