We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
US inflation is set to rise further:
ISM Services Prices rose +0.6 points in May, to 71.3, the highest since August 2022.
Since February, the index has risen +8.3 points, the biggest 3-month increase since 2021.
Diesel, gasoline, oil, and related commodities were the most frequently cited as "up in price" in the survey.
In May alone, no commodities were reported as "down in price."
Historically, rapidly rising services prices have led CPI inflation with a ~3-month lag.
The current reading suggests CPI could rise above 5.0% for the first time since early 2023, from the 3.8% seen in April.
Inflation pressures are mounting.
(@TheKobeissiLetter)
Intellectual masking is the deliberate regulation of how much of your knowledge, reasoning, and analytical ability you reveal so that others form a controlled (and often incomplete) assessment of your capabilities.
Its purpose is to manage perception, reduce unnecessary attention, encourage others to reveal more information, and preserve strategic advantage until demonstrating full competence serves your objective.
🛢 We Are 'Still' Going Full Speed Into The Wall
Product storage is about to get tighter unless China steps in and lifts the product export ban. If it does, expect a meaningful reversal in crude.
WTI is barely hanging on to $70 for its dear life, but please remember that consumers use petroleum products like gasoline and diesel; they don’t use crude oil. Refineries do, and this is why it was always important for us to pay attention to crack spreads along with crude timespreads.
Note: Please divide it by 3.
The fever in the market today is that crude is oversupplied, but products are undersupplied. How can this be possible?
Well, China’s June crude import data so far is -4.7 million b/d y-o-y, and teapot refineries are operating at 50% utilization. Compared to US refineries operating at 95% and PADD 2 refineries operating over 100%, you can see where the disconnect is.
But here’s the thing. If end-user demand isn’t down and you still have a production shut-in of ~8 million...
