We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
Inflation in Europe is rising rapidly:
Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Input Prices spiked to 80 points in May, the highest since May 2022.
This also marks the largest monthly increase in costs for firms over the last 4 years.
Furthermore, PMI Output Prices surged to 62 points, the highest in 3.5 years.
The rate companies are increasing the prices they charge for goods they produce has surged +12 points, or +24%, since the start of 2026.
This surge has been primarily driven by rising energy and raw material costs.
Meanwhile, supply chain delays are up to the highest level since the pandemic supply squeeze of 2022, adding further pressure on prices.
As a result, factories are forced to pass higher costs on to customers, which will push inflation even higher over the next few months.
Price pressures across Europe are accelerating.
(@TheKobeissiLetter)
Intellectual masking is the deliberate regulation of how much of your knowledge, reasoning, and analytical ability you reveal so that others form a controlled (and often incomplete) assessment of your capabilities.
Its purpose is to manage perception, reduce unnecessary attention, encourage others to reveal more information, and preserve strategic advantage until demonstrating full competence serves your objective.
🛢 We Are 'Still' Going Full Speed Into The Wall
Product storage is about to get tighter unless China steps in and lifts the product export ban. If it does, expect a meaningful reversal in crude.
WTI is barely hanging on to $70 for its dear life, but please remember that consumers use petroleum products like gasoline and diesel; they don’t use crude oil. Refineries do, and this is why it was always important for us to pay attention to crack spreads along with crude timespreads.
Note: Please divide it by 3.
The fever in the market today is that crude is oversupplied, but products are undersupplied. How can this be possible?
Well, China’s June crude import data so far is -4.7 million b/d y-o-y, and teapot refineries are operating at 50% utilization. Compared to US refineries operating at 95% and PADD 2 refineries operating over 100%, you can see where the disconnect is.
But here’s the thing. If end-user demand isn’t down and you still have a production shut-in of ~8 million...
