🇮🇷🚫🚢 Here's my analysis of the Strait of Hormuz situation for the last 24 hours.

As I noted yesterday, I was seeing a lot of vessels using the Oman route to exit. This was following the announcement by Oman and IMO. The IRGC retaliated today on a vessel, but even after the attack, I am still seeing transits. It's a lot less, but there are vessels willing to take the risk.

On the inbound front, the flow is still heavily restricted. Whatever outflow we are seeing today is unsustainable as there are not enough non-Iranian tankers going in. In particular, we need empty VLCCs going in to load up crude. This is just a trickle so far.

In my view, the traffic in the Oman lane will lead to more escalation by IRGC. Without throttling flows entirely in the Southern lane, IRGC will lose control of its leverage over the Strait. If they act, then it's a question of what the US does after.

I think this is only the beginning.

🔗 @HFI_Research