We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
š¢ We Are 'Still' Going Full Speed Into The Wall
Product storage is about to get tighter unless China steps in and lifts the product export ban. If it does, expect a meaningful reversal in crude.
WTI is barely hanging on to $70 for its dear life, but please remember that consumers use petroleum products like gasoline and diesel; they donāt use crude oil. Refineries do, and this is why it was always important for us to pay attention to crack spreads along with crude timespreads.
Note: Please divide it by 3.
The fever in the market today is that crude is oversupplied, but products are undersupplied. How can this be possible?
Well, Chinaās June crude import data so far is -4.7 million b/d y-o-y, and teapot refineries are operating at 50% utilization. Compared to US refineries operating at 95% and PADD 2 refineries operating over 100%, you can see where the disconnect is.
But hereās the thing. If end-user demand isnāt down and you still have a production shut-in of ~8 million b/d, you are losing barrels in one form or another. Yes, China might not be importing crude, but it is drawing down product inventory. No one has visibility into how much China has in products right now, but it canāt be far from very low levels.
The same could be said for product inventories across the globe. Elevated crack spreads are a sign that despite higher refinery throughput in the coming weeks/months, the world still doesnāt have enough products. You can see this in the price action in the spreads.
š https://www.hfir.com/p/we-are-still-going-full-speed-into
The village of Piddington has voted for independence from the United Kingdom and to become a self governing village in a landslide vote.
91% Voting Leave
This comes after news that over 3,000 illegal migrants are to be dumped in their village.
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Many have asked my opinion on a possible Russia-NATO conflict.
This is going to annoy many people, and hopefully give them a reality check, but my opinion is very simple.
1. Russia had some valid strategic and ideological reasons for what it did in Ukraine, regardless of whether I condone the invasion or not. Was it successful? Arguably yes, arguably noāit depends on what you consider as the warās key objectives. The war actually pushed two neutral countries into NATO and pulled Ukraine even further away from Russian influence.
2. Russia does not have any valid strategic reason to invade the Baltics or any other NATO territory. Any attack on the Baltics cannot be excused as āprotecting Russian culture & languageā or fighting āNazismā. If this does happen, itāll be a clear sign of expansionism, nothing more and nothing less. Russia is not a saintly country and I donāt put it past them.
3. If Russia does miscalculate and invade NATO territory, it will backfire ...
š Market News Digest
[Sept 22, 2026 EST]
š„ Top Stories
ā¢ Trump says US-Iran talks were āvery productiveā ā White House/mediators signal momentum on a deal; Hormuz reopening and sanctions relief remain central
ā¢ Oil swings on Hormuz diplomacy, then settles lower ā Brent/$94.59 WTI after ceasefire/deal hopes offset blockade and tanker-risk headlines
ā¢ Trump UNGA speech: hard line on Iran, AI, Greenland ā urged isolation of Iran, vowed no global AI controls, signed Greenland security deal
ā¢ US stocks end mixed; Nasdaq hits fresh record ā chip/AI names led, while banks lagged and rates stayed firm
ā½ Oil & Energy
ā¢ Hormuz remains the key market risk ā Iran alternates between reopening talk and threats; U.S.com/Gulf push de-escalation and alternative flow routes
ā¢ Aramco, Libya, Iraq headlines support supply-watch ā Aramco eyes gas reorg/listings; Libyan shutdown trims output; Iraq exports top 3 mln bpd
š Markets & Macro
ā¢ Fed speakers stay hawkish-ish ā Collins/Barkin ...
