We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
🛢 We Are 'Still' Going Full Speed Into The Wall
Product storage is about to get tighter unless China steps in and lifts the product export ban. If it does, expect a meaningful reversal in crude.
WTI is barely hanging on to $70 for its dear life, but please remember that consumers use petroleum products like gasoline and diesel; they don’t use crude oil. Refineries do, and this is why it was always important for us to pay attention to crack spreads along with crude timespreads.
Note: Please divide it by 3.
The fever in the market today is that crude is oversupplied, but products are undersupplied. How can this be possible?
Well, China’s June crude import data so far is -4.7 million b/d y-o-y, and teapot refineries are operating at 50% utilization. Compared to US refineries operating at 95% and PADD 2 refineries operating over 100%, you can see where the disconnect is.
But here’s the thing. If end-user demand isn’t down and you still have a production shut-in of ~8 million b/d, you are losing barrels in one form or another. Yes, China might not be importing crude, but it is drawing down product inventory. No one has visibility into how much China has in products right now, but it can’t be far from very low levels.
The same could be said for product inventories across the globe. Elevated crack spreads are a sign that despite higher refinery throughput in the coming weeks/months, the world still doesn’t have enough products. You can see this in the price action in the spreads.
🇺🇸🇮🇷⚡️- “U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) completed another round of strikes against Iran at 9 p.m. ET, July 20.
U.S. forces struck Iranian military command centers, maritime capabilities, missile and drone launch sites, and air defense systems to degrade Iran's ability to continue attacking commercial vessels flowing through the Strait of Hormuz.
Commercial vessel transits through the vital international maritime corridor continue. Since early May, CENTCOM forces have helped facilitate the transit of approximately 900 commercial vessels and 450 million barrels of crude oil.
American forces remain postured and prepared to hold Iran accountable for unwarranted aggression toward civilian mariners seeking to freely and openly transit the strait.” - U.S. Central Command.
“This is insane!” — A new vaccine is on the market called VAXELIS lt has 6 VACCINES in ONE SHOT for 6-WEEK-OLD BABIES...6 Infants Died In Trials.
How can this be allowed to happen ?
Dr. Jeff Barke
Mike
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🌆 Market News Digest
[2026-07-19 17:00–2026-07-20 16:30 EST]
🔥 Top Stories
• U.S.-Iran conflict escalates — fresh U.S. strikes, Iranian retaliation, and talks/ceasefire chatter keep markets on edge
• Oil surges on Hormuz risk — Brent topped $90 intraday, WTI near $83, with tanker incidents and Saudi/Hormuz shipping threats
• Trump escalates pressure on Iran — says Iran will “pay” for U.S. deaths; U.S. adds aircraft and signals next campaign phase
• Canada CPI cools — headline CPI eased to 2.8% y/y, supporting easier BoC path and denting CAD
• UK government reset — Starmer resigned; Burnham took over with a reshuffled cabinet, pledging fiscal rules but more flexibility
⛽ Oil & Energy
• Tankers hit / shipping disrupted — fires, explosions and drone threats in Strait of Hormuz, Bahrain, Kuwait and off Oman
• Chevron shuts Petronius output — Gulf platform shut-in as storm risk adds to energy supply worries
• CPC oil loadings suspended — attacks on tankers halt Kazakhstan ...
⛽️ While the price of crude oil is still below the prices seen during the peak of the 3rd Gulf War fighting, diesel prices on the other hand are surging and surpassed their peak in May.
Diesel is the most important fuel for the global economy, widely used in agriculture to fuel tractors and combine-harvesters.
@CIG_telegram
