We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
🇮🇷🚫🚢 My analysis of the Strait of Hormuz over the last 24 hours.
If the tankers use the Iran route, they are dominantly Iran-related. If the tankers use the Oman route, they are not, and never sanctioned.
I have heard from ship owners that most tankers cannot use the Iran route because the EU has not lifted sanctions on IRGC. Using the Iran route would risk sanctions, making the Oman route the only viable option.
With more conflict going on between IRGC and the US, the visible AIS data on Oman's tanker route is going to go dark again, which means Iran will have to keep escalating in order to completely halt flows.
For the US, the fact that the Oman route might be blocked presents it with a big ultimatum: either the US escalates or gives IRGC control of the Strait of Hormuz. Logic says there's no way that would happen, so escalation will continue.
Given that Trump has made it obvious that he does not want to escalate, I fear that the IRGC would just keep escalating until they gain control.
This issue is far from over.
🔗 @HFI_Research
The village of Piddington has voted for independence from the United Kingdom and to become a self governing village in a landslide vote.
91% Voting Leave
This comes after news that over 3,000 illegal migrants are to be dumped in their village.
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🌆 Market News Digest
[Sept 22, 2026 EST]
🔥 Top Stories
• Trump says US-Iran talks were “very productive” — White House/mediators signal momentum on a deal; Hormuz reopening and sanctions relief remain central
• Oil swings on Hormuz diplomacy, then settles lower — Brent/$94.59 WTI after ceasefire/deal hopes offset blockade and tanker-risk headlines
• Trump UNGA speech: hard line on Iran, AI, Greenland — urged isolation of Iran, vowed no global AI controls, signed Greenland security deal
• US stocks end mixed; Nasdaq hits fresh record — chip/AI names led, while banks lagged and rates stayed firm
⛽ Oil & Energy
• Hormuz remains the key market risk — Iran alternates between reopening talk and threats; U.S.com/Gulf push de-escalation and alternative flow routes
• Aramco, Libya, Iraq headlines support supply-watch — Aramco eyes gas reorg/listings; Libyan shutdown trims output; Iraq exports top 3 mln bpd
📊 Markets & Macro
• Fed speakers stay hawkish-ish — Collins/Barkin ...
PN I know I disappeared for awhile. I’ve been writing a little but not much. I had a death in my family and it hit hard. I’m trying to get moving but having a hard time.
I want you to know my husband works for one of the largest trucking companies in the country driving heavy haul. He delivers feed to all the chickens out here in the pacific nw. Up and down Wa and Or. He will not be participating in the protest 10/1 due to the fact that he is company and this job was hard to find. He feels diesel is going up in a very bad way. That’s the word with the truckers. If things continue the way they are it may be $8-10 a gallon in ten days. They are trying to break us. His company subsides the diesel through the government so they don’t feel the effect except when seeing the pumps. He feels that they will be affected heavily by the end of the month, the company rigs that is. It’s going to get very nasty and with all this stuff in the middle east with both straits, as you already ...
