We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
According to The Wall Street Journal, Donald Trump reviewed military options for a full-scale war against Iran to “finish the job,” but has decided, for now, not to move forward.
The report says Trump is concerned that renewed military conflict could hurt the chances of a diplomatic resolution and of dismantling Iran’s nuclear program, and that he’s shown willingness to let indirect talks in Qatar run past the August 18 deadline. He is said to be fine with continuing limited strikes on Iranian targets if Tehran violates the current temporary deal - as it already has, repeatedly.
How are those negotiations going?
Not well. It seems JD Vance’s “historic” face-to-face achievement was a one-off. Washington has been quietly downgraded from talking to the Great Satan to negotiating with the Little Satan instead - a senior Qatari official confirmed that U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met Qatari officials in Doha, but there are currently no high-level U.S.-Iran meetings scheduled.
Faced with Iran publicly denying that peace talks even exist, Vance is denying reality right back, insisting it’s merely a “Persian negotiating tactic.” He’s not wrong that rejectionism is a tactic - he’s just wrong about what it’s negotiating for. Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman, Esmail Baghaei, confirmed the delegation will skip U.S. officials entirely, meeting only the Qataris in Doha to talk about unfreezing Iran’s own assets. The tactic isn’t stalling for a better peace. It’s stalling for a better payment: extract the MoU concessions first, discuss the nuclear file never.
Iranian officials have shown no willingness to meet U.S. nuclear demands, focusing instead on asserting control over the Strait of Hormuz. Iran says it will impose its “sovereignty and new policy” there regardless of whether it reaches an agreement with Oman, calling the strait a purely internal matter. Reports differ on the nature of the proposed transit fees - Iran calls them mandatory, a regional diplomat calls them voluntary, and Oman’s foreign minister rejects fees outright but leaves room for “maritime service” mechanisms such as safety and pollution measures. Regardless of that distinction, Iran seems set on asserting authority over the waterway: it has already indicated that ships paying “security fees” and following IRGC protocols would get priority transit, while others face delays.
Iran will not make a deal the U.S. can accept. That’s the reality. The only question left is how many more “historic” handshakes, Doha detours, and denied peace talks it takes before that reality mugs Vance the way it mugged the godfather of neoconservatism, Irving Kristol, famously defined a conservative as “a liberal who has been mugged by reality.”
(Amit Segal)
🇪🇺 Europe is facing a gas crisis similar to the one five years ago
Europe is facing a near-identical gas crisis to the one five years ago, with similar historical price peaks and comparable consequences for industry and the economy. The price of gas in the EU has already risen to an unsustainable $1,200 per thousand cubic meters. However, this may still be an underestimate. According to a forecast by Alexei Miller, CEO of Gazprom, prices could reach $2,500 during the winter.
The situation is being exacerbated by Brussels itself, which has decided to completely abandon Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) starting January 1, 2027. Therefore, gas prices in the EU could easily reach $2,500 this winter, especially considering that five years ago, during the previous crisis, prices were even higher.
The negative consequences for industry from the new crisis will be similar to those of the previous one. Many companies were forced to shut down because such high gas prices made their ...
🇺🇸 Mike Vorkunov on X: This is such a bleak story about what it's like to try to land a job right now.
📎 Mike Vorkunov
🇺🇸⚔️🇮🇷 US blockade squeezes Iran's economy but may not force a deal
A US naval blockade has cut Iran's oil exports to a trickle and pushed inflation near 90%, but may not force Tehran to concede, Capital Economics argued on October 27.
Tracking estimates put Iran's seaborne crude exports at around 50,000 barrels a day (b/d) in both August and September, against 1.5mn-2.0mn b/d before the war, wrote Jason Tuvey, deputy chief emerging markets economist at the London-based consultancy. No crude has been loaded at Kharg Island, Iran's main export terminal, since late August, and Iraq and Pakistan have closed some border crossings with Iran, curbing its overland oil sales.
Oil exports were earning Iran $2bn-3bn a month before the war, Tuvey estimates, so a fall of more than 95% in seaborne volumes strips Tehran of most of its hard-currency income after more than 100 days of blockade. The central bank has already cut the dollars it supplies for imports to $27bn in the first seven ...
