🇺🇸🇮🇷 - Over the last two months, Rerum Novarum has tracked 4,613 publicly visible military cargo and refueling aircraft flights in EUCOM and CENTCOM between May 20 and July 18. These flights involved 487 unique aircraft identifiers and averaged 76.9 flights/day across the 60-day period.

Flights over the last two months have stayed similar in total flight count.

• May 20–June 18: 2,227 flights involving 386 unique aircraft, averaging 74.2 per day.
• June 19–July 18: 2,386 flights involving 371 unique aircraft, averaging 79.5 per day.

Despite flight counts staying relatively similar, cargo aircraft flights (C-17, C-5, C-130) declined from 1,256 to 1,081 (-13.9%), while aerial refueler flights (KC-135, KC-46) increased from 971 to 1,305 (+34.4%). Aerial refueler movement went from 43.6% of flights in the first month to 54.7% in the second month.

May 20–July 18 Activity Compared with the February 14–28 Pre-War Buildup:

Historical data previously tracked by Rerum Novarum between February 14 and 28 (the lead-up to the war) showed 1,191 flights entering Europe and the Middle East, averaging 85 per day.

When comparing historical data to flights in the same area, May 20–June 18 averaged 74.2 flights/day (12.7% lower than pre-war). Between June 19 and July 18, 79.5 flights/day were tracked (6.4% lower than pre-war).

Despite the averages per day being lower, these flights were maintained for almost two months at 76.9 per day (9.5% below pre-war).

Transatlantic Corridor:

Between May 20 and July 18, 862 transatlantic crossings were made, averaging 14.4 per day and maintaining a consistent pace across the two-month period. This was made up of 409 eastbound crossings and 453 westbound crossings.

This data shows the largest change in aircraft type, with refueler crossings increasing 86% in the second month and cargo crossings decreasing 14%.

• May 20–June 18: 28 US-to-Europe and 29 Europe-to-US tanker crossings
• June 19–July 18: 38 US-to-Europe and 68 Europe-to-US tanker crossings

During February 15–April 16, tanker crossings averaged 3.8 per day. Tankers made 3.5 transatlantic crossings per day during June 19–July 18, only 7.0% below the February 15–April 16 rate.

The westbound tanker imbalance is consistent with possible scheduled aircraft rotations, which would also be supported by public reports of aircraft units leaving the Middle East this month and other units reportedly coming into the Middle East in a short time frame.

Europe–Middle East Corridor:

The May 20–July 18 period recorded 717 Europe–Middle East aircraft movements. Cargo flight movements in the first month started at 242 and declined to 190 in the second month (-21.5%), while tankers had increased from 124 to 161 (+29.8%).

The directional tanker figures changed from:

• May 20–June 18: 101 Europe-to-Middle East and 23 Middle East-to-Europe tanker movements
• June 19–July 18: 89 Europe-to-Middle East and 72 Middle East-to-Europe tanker movements

Aircraft Types Observed in Europe and the Middle East over the 60 days:

• KC-135: 1,855 flights involving 215 unique aircraft.
• KC-46: 417 flights involving 56 unique aircraft.
• C-17: 1,957 flights involving 146 unique aircraft.
• C-130: 199 flights involving 45 unique aircraft.
• C-5M: 181 flights involving 25 unique aircraft.

Two caveats apply when comparing these figures to the pre-war buildup. The February dataset covered roughly two weeks, while these span two months; a lower daily average sustained over 60 days still produces more total flights than a short spike. Also, the pre-war surge moved new units and equipment into the region for the first time. With much of that hardware now in place, these recent flights are better understood as resupply, crew rotations, and incremental reinforcements rather than an initial deployment.

The attached video shows the last 30 days' worth of publicly available flights and their aircraft type.