We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
🛢 This oil crisis is now considerably more dangerous than it was back in March while market sentiment remains complacent.
• Strait of Hormuz closed again, with less dark fleet shuttling than ten days ago;
• Iranian crude exports effectively blockaded;
• Bab el Mandeb has become a new front in the Iran-US conflict, removing additional Saudi barrels;
• Less diplomatic room for manoeuvre than before the MoU;
• Kazakh crude exports via CPC terminal halted following Ukraine’s vessel strike campaign in the Black Sea;
• 1.5mbpd of Russian product exports missing, with significant duration due to recurring Ukraine drone strikes;
• Global crude inventories 1.5bn barrels lower than on 28 Feb;
• US product inventories remain lowish while its refinery system is maxed out;
• Brent back to a US$6 front-month backwardation.
We are rapidly moving from a products crisis - which is here to stay - back into a crude and product crisis.
Expect fresh announcements of SPR releases.
🔗 Alexander Stahel
New fencing now being deployed in Australia. Wonder why people now need that?
Japan's 10Y Bond Yield chart is something for the history books.
This is definitely not normal. https://t.co/YlD8kOFh3f
(@TheKobeissiLetter)
🇺🇸⚡️🇮🇷- Map of the US-Iranian missile/drone exchanges from August 30th- September 1st
🇺🇸❌🇮🇷- August 30th confirmed US impacts: Larak Island.
➡️September 1st confirmed US impacts: Bandar Abbas, Chabahar, Sirik, Konarak, Bandar-e-Jask, Kuhestak, and Qeshm Island.
➡️September 1st unconfirmed US impacts: Minab.
🇮🇷❌🇺🇸🇯🇴- August 30th confirmed Iranian impacts: A hanger at the Muwaffaq Al- Salti airbase in Jordan.
➡️August 30th unconfirmed Iranian impacts: The King Hussein airbase in Jordan.
➡️September 1st confirmed Iranian impacts: Aqaba (presumably Camp Titin) in Jordan.
🇮🇷❌🌞- Iranian drones have also struck the Erbil airport in Kurdish Iraq today on September 2nd.
@GeoPWatch
🇮🇱 🇺🇸 🇮🇷 The Jerusalem Post suggests Americans need “a federally administered debt-forgiveness enlistment program…” for the Iran war.
The CIA has now confirmed what the strike data was already reflecting. First, Iran's military capacity did not collapse. Second, air power resolved neither the institutional problem nor the negotiating problem. Third, the Pentagon still lacks the tools needed to end the war with the Islamic Republic.
Recruitment numbers are running below what a ground invasion of Iran would require. Estimates for a successful ground campaign against Iran's 31 provincial commands and its Mosaic Defense Doctrine run between 750 thousand and 1.5 million American troops. The current active US Army stands at roughly 452 thousand. The math does not work, obviously.
The average American aged 18 to 34 carries more than $40 thousand in non-mortgage debt across student loans, credit card balances, auto loans, and personal loans, with some estimates go as high...
