We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
🌾 🌍 🚜 JPMorgan warns a massive global food supply crisis could begin next year as fertilizer shortages tighten agricultural supply.
JPMorgan is the latest institutional research desk to warn that the next global food crisis may already be taking shape, driven by what its analysts describe as the "Five Ws": War, Weather, Warehousing, Water, and Waste.
In a new report titled Food Security Is National Security: A Compounding Storm, a team led by London-based senior global economist Nora Szentivanyi warned that disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz and the emergence of a potentially historic El Niño could weaken crop yields, constrain agricultural production, and keep food inflation elevated through the first half of 2027.
"Successive shocks since COVID have compounded, eroding food production capacity and keeping food price pressures elevated into 2027," Szentivanyi said, warning that "this is not a short-lived shock; it has reduced the likelihood of near-term disinflation, and the food inflation cycle is likely to exert pressure through 1H27."
She expects global food inflation to accelerate from 2.8% in the first half of 2026 to 5% in the first half of next year.
The warning comes despite a modest improvement in hunger statistics. About 645 million people faced hunger in 2025, down roughly 43 million from 2022. Yet 2.1 billion people, or 25.8% of the global population, still experienced moderate or severe food insecurity.
Szentivanyi outlined the most immediate vulnerability: fertilizer. She noted, "Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and the coming super El Niño are adding to fertilizer and food price pressures."
She said that "crop and price effects are still building and agricultural impacts lag the oceanic peak by 6 to 12 months."
Szentivanyi warned that this year's energy shock could roughly double the inflationary impact of a super El Niño, lifting global food CPI by about 1.5 percentage points, compared with the historical .7-point increase. Food inflation is projected to reach a 5% annualized rate in the first half of 2027, adding .6 percentage points to headline inflation and slowing full-year disinflation by .3 points.
"Exposure is concentrated in South and Southeast Asia, including rice, sugar, and coffee; West Africa, including cocoa; and parts of East and Southern Africa," the analyst said, adding, "EM bears the brunt of El Niño. The largest food inflation responses are concentrated in EM Asia and Latin America, where weather-sensitive agriculture plays a larger role in economic activity, and food carries a higher weight in consumption baskets. India, Colombia, Indonesia, Brazil, Taiwan, and Korea emerge as among the most sensitive economies"”
Furthermore, China has been stockpiling food, fertilizer, energy, and industrial metals. While the West has strategic oil reserves (quickly draining to offset the loss of Gulf supplies), it lacks a meaningful fertilizer buffer. With the Hormuz chokepoint still disrupted, crop conditions deteriorating, and export controls spreading, Szentivanyi suggests that the next inflation shock may emerge not at the gas pump, as seen earlier this year, but potentially in the grocery aisle next year.
This comes as the UN Food and Agriculture Organization's global food price index climbed to a three-year high in July.
Bank of America analyst Robert Ohmes recently warned that another food price spike could arrive in supermarkets this fall. He said that grocery inflation "may be on the way," citing a blended index of wages, diesel, and commodity costs.
Meanwhile, here’s Don Jr. worshipping at the feet of another demon god in India.
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The village of Piddington has voted for independence from the United Kingdom and to become a self governing village in a landslide vote.
91% Voting Leave
This comes after news that over 3,000 illegal migrants are to be dumped in their village.
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🇺🇸🛢 The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve has fallen to 283.8M barrels, its lowest level since October 1982.
A year ago, September 2025, the SPR held 406 million barrels.
The current drawdown traces back to a 172 million-barrel release President Trump authorized in March, part of a coordinated 400 million-barrel release by 32 IEA member countries. Discharge began about a week later and was expected to take roughly 120 days, with the administration pledging to refill about 200 million barrels within a year at no cost to taxpayers.
Two different floors govern how far the reserve can fall. Federal law sets an operational minimum of 252.4 million barrels, while the generally accepted operational minimum is 250 to 300 million barrels on hand to pump and process oil efficiently, a level it is now testing.
Ben Cahill, an energy analyst at the Atlantic Council, has warned the releases carry diminishing returns: "at a certain point it becomes a self-defeating move, because releasing more...
