We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
🇺🇸⛽️ Soaring diesel prices rip across US economy
Rising fuel costs threaten new jolt of inflation ahead of November’s midterm elections
A surge in diesel prices is dealing a powerful blow to industrial America, pushing up costs for businesses and consumers across the US ahead of midterm elections.
The pump price of diesel — the lifeblood of the economy because of its essential role in powering industry and agriculture — hit $5.47 a gallon on Tuesday, approaching its all-time high of $5.82 as wars in the Middle East and Europe hobble production and throttle global supplies.
Prices have jumped 8 per cent in the past month while the gap between the cost of diesel and crude oil, known as the “crack spread”, has hit a record high in recent days in a sign of the deepening supply shock.
The price surge has driven up costs for truckers and farmers that are set to ricochet through the broader economy, reigniting inflation and squeezing already thinly stretched American consumers.
Rising fuel prices risk intensifying the political turmoil facing Donald Trump, as voters grow increasingly frustrated ahead of November’s midterm elections to decide control of Congress. A recent FT poll found most voters felt worse off under the president.
The new eruption of fuel inflation is also feeding into a sell-off in US government bonds, sending yields to multiyear highs and pushing up borrowing costs for average Americans.
The conflict has exacerbated existing diesel shortages driven by Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries, which have crimped production by one of the world’s biggest suppliers and caused Moscow to throttle exports.
US refineries have been running at full tilt in an attempt to fill the gap, shipping record volumes of fuel to global markets, which analysts said would be difficult to sustain because of falling inventories.
“There is a huge amount of refining capacity offline in the Middle East and Russia,” said Robert Campbell at Energy Aspects. Combined with lower exports from China, that has left the US as the “supplier of last resort”.
With diesel production near its peak, analysts warned further disruption — from the war, maintenance or hurricane damage — could send prices spiralling.
🇺🇸🗳⚡️- RN's Midterm Forecast With A Week And A Half To Go 3/3:
Why we think this election will be the first real nail in the coffin for Trumpism.
It has been said so many times it's become a meme, “the walls are closing in” “No way he wiggles out of this jam!” etc. This time it's not a joke, the armor that Trump has had around him for a decade is clearly slipping off.
Trump’s approval by his own 2024 voters continues to rapidly decline, damaged by the nonstop rampant corruption and the Iran War.
Trump approval within the GOP, despite remaining strong on paper, is actually at its lowest since 2015 before he won the 2016 primary. The Iran War in particular has nuked his bedrock fanatical support within the GOP base when looking at not only surveys but also via multiple anecdotes on AM radio talk shows who get callers every day saying they feel betrayed by the war, and that the corruption is becoming unignorable.
GOP activists at the local level are also reporting to their ...
🇺🇸🗳⚡️- RN's Midterm Forecast With A Week And A Half To Go 2/3:
Although we have James Talarico winning in Texas it is still entirely possible that Ken Paxton can win, the early voting numbers have been getting better for the GOP in the state however surveys are showing that a sizable chunk of Republicans in Texas will be voting for Talarico.
Anecdotally on the ground however there are not nearly as many Talarico signs or bumper stickers seen around as there were for Beto O’ Rourke in 2018 which saw the closest a Democrat has come to winning in years.
Even though Trump’s campaign arms and Elon Musk have pumped hundreds of millions of dollars into the election at the 11th hour this spending seems to have not moved the needle in any meaningful way.
However as said before this money going into Get Out The Vote efforts will help the GOP come election day.
🇺🇸🗳⚡️- RN's Midterm Forecast With A Week And A Half To Go 1/3:
Currently Rerum Novarum is forecasting the Midterm results as follows:
House: 240 D - 195 R
Senate: 50 D - 50 R
Governor Races: 26 D - 24 R
As election day rapidly approaches the GOP chances for a comeback quickly are fading to zero. We have expanded our house forecast to Democrats winning 240 seats, however we are now predicting that Susan Collins re-election in Maine will save the GOP majority in the Senate, so long as Vivek Ramaswamy doesn't destroy the entire GOP ticket in Ohio and Iowa splits its vote.
We have also switched the Governors race in Georgia to the GOP as Rick Jackson looks like he will defeat the former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Bottoms. The Democrats however will control the majority of Governorships for the first time in over 16 years.
When analyzing the trends and behavior of both parties we are seeing the GOP deep on defense heavily spending on GOTV efforts in Republican territory in order to stave off a ...
