We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
🛢 Global crude markets that looked well-supplied in July are now facing an impending supply tightness and the market is still underpricing shortfall
For a brief window in mid-July, global crude markets looked well-supplied. After the US-Iran MoU was signed on June 17th, Hormuz transits picked up, Iran also managed to get barrels on the water, and Atlantic Basin exports hit record highs. Crude and condensates on water climbed above ~1.3 bn barrels by July 13th — matching the post-Covid, post-price-war peak of Q2 2020. It was, in hindsight, a false dawn.
Since that peak, Vortexa data shows a collapse in crude on the water of ~200mb in just four weeks — a draw rate of 7.1mbd. To put that in context: the equivalent draw in the four weeks after the Middle East war began in early March was 102mb. This most recent drawdown is 95% larger, and the market appears to have barely noticed. Summer trading lulls, seasonally lower price volatility, and the brief sense of comfort created by the July peak may have dulled the market's sensitivity to what the physical data is now pointing towards.
The immediate driver of the drawdown is a simultaneous collapse in exports from four of the world's most significant crude exporters. Combined seaborne exports from Iran, Russia (including Kazakh transit grades), Saudi Arabia, and the United States fell to approximately 12mbd — a record low, and a 5mbd drop from just one month prior. Relative to the pre-war February peak, the four-country aggregate is down ~6.7mbd on a four-week moving average basis.
Iranian exports fell to near zero following the re-imposition of the US blockade outside the Strait of Hormuz after the MoU collapsed in mid-July. Saudi exports dropped as both Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb escalated — with Houthi threats intensifying and vessel availability into the Red Sea port of Yanbu reportedly constrained. Russian and Kazakh export flows continue to suffer from recurring Ukrainian drone attacks on Black Sea shipping and pipeline infrastructure. And US exports eased as SPR releases tapered, peak domestic refinery runs cut into exportable surplus, and arbitrage economics temporarily closed the Atlantic-to-Asia window.
🔗 https://www.vortexa.com/insights/crude-markets-underpricing-an-impending
Police in Winona Minnesota are stunned after every single one of their Flock cameras were suddenly removed in a single night.
According to the police department, all 8 of the town's cameras were cut down and hauled away.
Police are asking for the public's help to identify the individual, but the public has been responding with comments such as:
"The Flock cameras tore themselves down"
"Whoever did it, was fishing with me"
"Whoever it was, was at Bible study with me"
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Nearly 20,000 people are publicly vouching for a man accused of cutting down Flock cameras in a small West Virginia town.
People commented:
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"He was saving my neighbor's dog from a fire all day, couldn't be him."
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"This man is innocent. I saw him serving at a soup kitchen."
-"Couldn't be him. He was helping me replace the roof on a homeless shelter."
The man, Wesley Jackson, has pleaded Not Guilty.
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🏦 🇺🇸 🇮🇷 Pilkington: The US is losing control, not just over global markets, but over their own bond markets.
Philip Pilkington’s read on this week comes down to one thing: control. More specifically, who is starting to lose it.
He points to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s intervention in the bond market, where Treasury sold short-term bills to help fund purchases of longer-term bonds. It was an unusual move that effectively stepped into territory normally handled by the Fed. It lasted less than a day before yields climbed again.
For Pilkington, the bigger issue is what the move says about the system: Treasury appeared willing to fight its own central bank in the middle of a crisis, suggesting the coordination between Washington’s institutions is starting to break down.
He sees something similar in the yen intervention. Washington shorted the euro to support the yen, which Pilkington sees as a departure from the usual rules of currency diplomacy. He interprets the ECB’s ...
🇺🇸⛽️ Soaring diesel prices rip across US economy
Rising fuel costs threaten new jolt of inflation ahead of November’s midterm elections
A surge in diesel prices is dealing a powerful blow to industrial America, pushing up costs for businesses and consumers across the US ahead of midterm elections.
The pump price of diesel — the lifeblood of the economy because of its essential role in powering industry and agriculture — hit $5.47 a gallon on Tuesday, approaching its all-time high of $5.82 as wars in the Middle East and Europe hobble production and throttle global supplies.
Prices have jumped 8 per cent in the past month while the gap between the cost of diesel and crude oil, known as the “crack spread”, has hit a record high in recent days in a sign of the deepening supply shock.
The price surge has driven up costs for truckers and farmers that are set to ricochet through the broader economy, reigniting inflation and squeezing already thinly stretched American consumers.
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US diesel crack surpasses $100 a barrel for the first time on supply disruptions
... and the supply of refined fuels is already nearly exhausted. A hard landing is visible ahead, for farmers, for trucking, and ... well, for everything that requires food (people) and energy (the entire economy).
These are very likely the final days of relative normalcy during which to prepare. Get ready.
