We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
🇺🇸🗳⚡️- RN's Midterm Forecast With A Week And A Half To Go 1/3:
Currently Rerum Novarum is forecasting the Midterm results as follows:
House: 240 D - 195 R
Senate: 50 D - 50 R
Governor Races: 26 D - 24 R
As election day rapidly approaches the GOP chances for a comeback quickly are fading to zero. We have expanded our house forecast to Democrats winning 240 seats, however we are now predicting that Susan Collins re-election in Maine will save the GOP majority in the Senate, so long as Vivek Ramaswamy doesn't destroy the entire GOP ticket in Ohio and Iowa splits its vote.
We have also switched the Governors race in Georgia to the GOP as Rick Jackson looks like he will defeat the former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Bottoms. The Democrats however will control the majority of Governorships for the first time in over 16 years.
When analyzing the trends and behavior of both parties we are seeing the GOP deep on defense heavily spending on GOTV efforts in Republican territory in order to stave off a total collapse. Trump himself is also campaigning mainly in red states like Iowa and Mississippi only visiting North Carolina and Michigan once.
Despite the GOP in clear retreat, campaigns in swing states and even blue states fending for themselves are finding some life in a heavily negative environment. Many pollsters and commentators are saying that the GOP will not fare nearly as poorly in blue states as expected while being given a huge wakeup call in red territory.
We agree with this analysis, voter enthusiasm in red America is in the toilet and GOP politicians return home to angry residents everyday complaining about corruption, gas prices, and the Iran War. However local anger at Democrat leadership and the continued deterioration of blue states are giving the GOP a little leg to stand on in enemy territory.
An NBC survey which polled respondents based on if they would vote this year or not found that the large group of Americans who will not vote this November lean heavily Republican.
This NBC survey also found that 71% of Americans say the country is on the wrong track, 82% say their finances are worse than last year, and show Trump's approval below 35% on every top issue including cost of living, the economy, corruption, AI, and the Iran War.
The only high point in polling on Trump in any survey is on the border and immigration, where he has an approval rating anywhere between 44%-50% depending on the survey.
What must be mentioned however is that in every single election during the Trump era, the GOP as a party have outran Trump's approval ratings. This happened in 2016 when the GOP House won the popular vote while he lost it, in 2020 when the GOP was only 40,000 votes in a few districts away from winning the majority, and in 2022 when the GOP won the House popular vote by 3 points while Trump remained a pariah.
Whether this trend holds up this year is up for debate, but an argument for why it may happen again is that Trumpism is clearly in its twilight days, we will expand on this in another post.
The GOP's closing message for the campaign is nonexistent with Trump's promise of a $5000 check to all adults being denounced by virtually all GOP candidates. Major missteps from the Admin including the planned then cancelled live execution of the Fort Hood terrorist and Trump/Vance's defense of the Ramaswamy ad attacking Amy Acton for being raped as a pre-teen have put GOP candidates on the backfoot in almost every case.
The only positives for the GOP is candidate quality in certain key races on the Democrat side in Michigan, and Maine. Although we expect Abdul El-Sayed to win it is still very possible for Mike Rogers to pull out a majority saving victory for the GOP. Susan Collins democrat opponent in Maine has failed to put up a successful offense.
📢 🇬🇧 🥫 Britain has urged households to stock enough water, non-perishable food and medicine to be self-sufficient for three days, launching a new “Be Ready” preparedness campaign.
Government guidance recommends about three liters of drinking water per person per day, food that needs no refrigeration or cooking, essential medications, a first-aid kit, a torch, a battery or wind-up radio, a charged power bank and cash.
Officials cited severe storms, wildfires, cyberattacks and supply chain disruptions as the main risks, with Defence Secretary Wes Streeting pointing to “increasingly sophisticated cyber attacks” and scenarios such as supermarket payment systems going down.
Germany has long gone further, recommending households keep emergency supplies for 10 days, including about two liters of liquid per person per day.
📝 ReadyGuidance: "Worth noting the US version of this advice, at Ready.gov, is one gallon of water per person per day, about 3.8 liters, because ...
🇮🇹 Italy Experiences Food and Fuel Shortages After Truckers on Strike Block Roads. 90% of gas stations in Campania are out of fuel
Truckers protesting high gas prices have prevented deliveries to parts of southern Italy, leading to empty shelves and dry pumps.
On Wednesday night in Naples, Italy, a 72-year-old retiree walked into a supermarket to buy himself a snack and found it nearly bare.
It was out of milk, yogurt and eggs. Its shelves of pasta, oils and canned tomatoes were almost empty. The vast produce section was empty save for red onions, chestnuts, two melons and a case of ornamental gourds.
“It’s worse than I expected,” said Giuseppe Crisci, the retiree, who walked out with a bag of biscuits. “And what I expected was exceptional.”
Experiences like Mr. Crisci’s played out repeatedly this week across Naples, a sprawling port city in Italy’s south where residents faced widespread shortages at their gas pumps and grocery stores.
It is the fallout from a week of...
🇺🇸🗳⚡️- RN's Midterm Forecast With A Week And A Half To Go 3/3:
Why we think this election will be the first real nail in the coffin for Trumpism.
It has been said so many times it's become a meme, “the walls are closing in” “No way he wiggles out of this jam!” etc. This time it's not a joke, the armor that Trump has had around him for a decade is clearly slipping off.
Trump’s approval by his own 2024 voters continues to rapidly decline, damaged by the nonstop rampant corruption and the Iran War.
Trump approval within the GOP, despite remaining strong on paper, is actually at its lowest since 2015 before he won the 2016 primary. The Iran War in particular has nuked his bedrock fanatical support within the GOP base when looking at not only surveys but also via multiple anecdotes on AM radio talk shows who get callers every day saying they feel betrayed by the war, and that the corruption is becoming unignorable.
GOP activists at the local level are also reporting to their ...
