We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
🇪🇺 Europe is facing a gas crisis similar to the one five years ago
Europe is facing a near-identical gas crisis to the one five years ago, with similar historical price peaks and comparable consequences for industry and the economy. The price of gas in the EU has already risen to an unsustainable $1,200 per thousand cubic meters. However, this may still be an underestimate. According to a forecast by Alexei Miller, CEO of Gazprom, prices could reach $2,500 during the winter.
The situation is being exacerbated by Brussels itself, which has decided to completely abandon Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) starting January 1, 2027. Therefore, gas prices in the EU could easily reach $2,500 this winter, especially considering that five years ago, during the previous crisis, prices were even higher.
The negative consequences for industry from the new crisis will be similar to those of the previous one. Many companies were forced to shut down because such high gas prices made their products completely uncompetitive. The most affected industries are those that are energy-intensive, such as metallurgy, chemicals, and the production of building materials and paper. Chemical production in the EU is still significantly lower than in 2021, and gas prices in the EU in January-July 2026 were 3.6 times higher than in the United States.
Can Europe somehow mitigate the unfolding crisis? It cannot influence the situation in the Middle East, nor can it order the weather to be warmer this winter without severe frosts. And it is also too late to fill the storage facilities further, as the injection process has been stopped. Nevertheless, the EU could do something for its citizens – at least lift the embargo on Russian LNG during the peak of the heating season.
“A complete cancellation is unlikely, but partial easing is possible. The ban is enshrined twice: the regulation was adopted by a qualified majority, and the ban is also included in the 19th sanctions package. Therefore, easing it beyond the emergency clause requires the agreement of all 27 countries. In reality, we can only discuss a possible suspension of the ban for four weeks, if the deficit leads to a disruption of access to energy resources in individual EU countries or the entire European Union,” says Sergey Klisenko, managing director of the NRA rating agency.
🇺🇸 Mike Vorkunov on X: This is such a bleak story about what it's like to try to land a job right now.
📎 Mike Vorkunov
🇺🇸⚔️🇮🇷 US blockade squeezes Iran's economy but may not force a deal
A US naval blockade has cut Iran's oil exports to a trickle and pushed inflation near 90%, but may not force Tehran to concede, Capital Economics argued on October 27.
Tracking estimates put Iran's seaborne crude exports at around 50,000 barrels a day (b/d) in both August and September, against 1.5mn-2.0mn b/d before the war, wrote Jason Tuvey, deputy chief emerging markets economist at the London-based consultancy. No crude has been loaded at Kharg Island, Iran's main export terminal, since late August, and Iraq and Pakistan have closed some border crossings with Iran, curbing its overland oil sales.
Oil exports were earning Iran $2bn-3bn a month before the war, Tuvey estimates, so a fall of more than 95% in seaborne volumes strips Tehran of most of its hard-currency income after more than 100 days of blockade. The central bank has already cut the dollars it supplies for imports to $27bn in the first seven ...
