We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
Fwd from @rybar
🇸🇾 What is happening in Syria?
Situation for September 27 - October 1, 2023
▪️ In Trans-Euphrates, fighting continues between the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and Arab tribal militias.
The rebels released a statement denying involvement with any political force. They also accused the Kurds of colluding with the government in Damascus with the Iranians and refusing to fight against them.
In this case, one can even believe in the sincerity of the motives of the Arab clans: they receive nothing from the oil of Trans-Euphrates, just like from the Kurdish strangers who occupied these lands and established their own order.
▪️ In the south, in Druze Es-Suwayda, protests against the difficult socio-economic situation continue, during which even flags of the Syrian opposition have been seen.
There is no need to look for deep meaning in this - the Druze do not care about the problems of regions with Sunni or other populations. But the situation again demonstrates that the government has lost control over the situation in the province and is actually acting as an observer.
▪️ Early in the morning of October 1, Israel carried out further strikes on Syria. Explosions occurred in Al-Dimas and near the Mezze airbase, and Syrian air defense went off near Damascus. The results of the attack remain unknown, just like the objects of the raids themselves, the military expediency of which has long been questioned.
▪️ The United States reported on a joint operation with the Kurds in northeast Syria to capture the coordinator of the Islamic State, Mamdouh Ibrahim al-Hajji. Similar raids with the capture of various ISIS functionaries take place regularly and do not seriously affect the general background.
In general, the situation in Syria is the same: although there are no large-scale military operations, constant protests and local clashes have become commonplace.
The country is increasingly reminiscent of a powder keg, where one spark can provoke a war not between the usual parties to the conflict, but all against all.
#Damascus #DeirEzZor #Syria #EsSuwayda
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🇺🇸 #Oklahoma high school principal (Kirk Moore) seen charging at and disarming a school shooter.
The suspect, identified as 20-year-old Victor Hawkins, was a former student who said he wanted to shoot up the school “like the Columbine shooters did.” While taking down the shooter, Moore was shot in the leg. He is expected to recover.
When the Principal woke up that day, he never thought he would be tackling a gunman.
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🇨🇳🛢 How much strategic oil does the world actually have in reserve?
Global strategic crude oil inventories stood at ~2.5 BILLION barrels as of December 2025, according to the US Energy Information Administration.
China holds by far the largest stockpile at 1,397 million barrels, more than 3 times the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve of 413 million barrels, which itself sits at only 58% of its full storage capacity of 714 million barrels.
China added an average of 1.1 million barrels per day to its strategic inventories throughout 2025, with preliminary data suggesting it continued building stockpiles in early 2026 ahead of the Iran War.
Japan holds the 3rd-largest reserve at 263 million barrels, followed by OECD European countries at 179 million barrels.
Meanwhile, the US is releasing 172 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve to suppress oil prices, part of a broader 400 million barrel coordinated release agreed by 32 IEA member nations in March.
🔗 ...
🛢 JP Morgan Warns Oil Market Out of Balance, Prices Must Rise
🔸The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil flows, has removed 13.7 million barrels per day from global supply in April alone. A JP Morgan research note warns the market has no good way to replace it.
🔸Normally, spare production capacity in Saudi Arabia and the UAE acts as the market’s shock absorber. But that buffer has effectively been removed, eliminating the system’s first line of defense.
🔸With spare capacity unavailable, markets turned to inventories
➤ Global stockpiles are now being drained at ~7.1 mbd in April, an extraordinary pace, according to the note.
🔸Meanwhile, demand is collapsing because supply simply isn’t reaching users — “forced demand destruction.”The hardest hit sectors include:
▪️ Petrochemical plants across Asia are shutting down or slashing output as LPG, ethane, and naphtha flows from the Gulf collapse
▪️ Airline jet fuel ...
🛢⛽️ Global oil inventories are heading toward RECORD LOWS:
Global visible oil inventories have fallen -255 million barrels since the start of the conflict on February 27, to 7,864 million barrels.
Total estimated oil draws, including non-OECD refined products storage, have accelerated to 10.9 million barrels per day in April, the largest monthly draws on record since 2017.
Cumulative estimated draws since the start of the war now stand at 474 million barrels, with Hormuz flows holding at ~10% of normal, or 2.0 million barrels per day.
Meanwhile, even in an optimistic scenario where Strait of Hormuz flows begin recovering by late April, it is unlikely to prevent global visible inventories from reaching all-time lows, according to Goldman Sachs.
As inventories keep falling, physical oil markets are likely to require sharply higher prices for immediate delivery, since buyers cannot wait months for cheaper futures delivery when stocks are running critically low.
Goldman also warns...
