⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦⚔️ Front #Assessment for 3 Nov 2023 by 23:02⚡️

🔹I. On Avdeyevka:

1. "Donetsk" units, at the cost of mass heroism, gnaw out the borders, taking #Avdeyevka in their pincers. From the right flank to the only road leading from #Avdeyevka fortification to the west, 4.5 km are left, from the left, 4.2 km. The AFU has no large fortifications beyond the city. In theory, there is an option to slam the lid sharply shut, but I would not do that, but slowly tighten it, as we are doing so far. Well done. God willing, we will finish before the snow.

2. The AFU counterattack, actively use artillery, rockets, fpv-drones, but so far things are going well for us.

3. Ideally, complete the encirclement of #Avdeyevka. Then there are 2 options: either “unbreakable Azov” awaits us again (the conventional “Metrostroy” dug underground passages outside the city in 10 years, Koksokhim is all dug up), with daily extraction, as in Mariupol; or withdrawal and surrender of the #Avdeevka fortress. In any case, it is a serious blow for the Svidovites.

🔹II. On the #Dnieper:

1. The AFU try to get hold of the bridgehead, to develop. They are not succeeding. The situation is being corrected, including the results of the past command. It has been said many times, including by me, that the AFU is preparing in specific directions (areas). The forces and means were named, we knew how the defence was or was not organised ... God willing, Mikhail Teplinsky will rectify the situation.

🔹III. Manoeuvring of the enemy + #Zaporozhye:

1. The enemy is constantly manoeuvring reserves. They transferred reserves in the direction of #Kremennaya-#Kupyansk, so now it is difficult there. The AFU railway is still working, promptly, transferring reserves from one section to another. It is normal to manoeuvre reserves, you can do it even every week, if the infrastructure allows it. They do.

2. In #Zaporozhye they actively use artillery of various calibers. #Rabotino, #Verbovoye, they are trying to climb in small groups. Will it be possible to stop their onslaught and move forward on their shoulders? Not sure what's going now. Yes, the enemy’s resources are poor, but ours is not endless either.

3. There will be no mobilization now, at least until the presidential elections. There is a small flow of volunteers, not the same as 4-5 months ago (winter). Nevertheless, it is there.

🔹IV. In #Belgorod Region:

1. Ping-pong continues. The line is held by conscripts, local defence forces, border guards, and local Rosgvardiya (riot police, special forces). It runs every day.

🔹V. On #Crimea and the Threat in the Rear:

1. The enemy is trying to knock out the air defence.

2. We must be prepared for new actions of the GUR within the framework of sabotage-terrorist warfare, taking into account changes in delivery means (water is cold).

3. New (old) directions of threats in the rear. An attempt to shake up the situation in the North Caucasus (Dagestan). The calls of the influence group "Arrested" speaker, under the control of MI6, for “parity negotiations” should not lull and disorient. There are new attack attempts on the frontline, attempts of info war and sabotage in the rear.

🔹VI. On the Potential of #Russia and the Enemy:

1. Radiating cautious optimism, we can say that the Russian Army is beginning an imperceptible rise. We are far from the peak, but we are slowly learning to fight. New weapon systems are arriving. We are at the beginning of qualitative growth.

2. The enemy is at the beginning of a qualitative decline, which is associated with war fatigue, depletion of mobile resources, primarily motivated service life.

📌 The enemy has one chance to reverse the situation, to agree on a pause, due to which they will be able to assemble the corps again, increase motivation and attract motivated fighters.

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