We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦⚔️ Front #Assessment for 3 Nov 2023 by 23:02⚡️
🔹I. On Avdeyevka:
1. "Donetsk" units, at the cost of mass heroism, gnaw out the borders, taking #Avdeyevka in their pincers. From the right flank to the only road leading from #Avdeyevka fortification to the west, 4.5 km are left, from the left, 4.2 km. The AFU has no large fortifications beyond the city. In theory, there is an option to slam the lid sharply shut, but I would not do that, but slowly tighten it, as we are doing so far. Well done. God willing, we will finish before the snow.
2. The AFU counterattack, actively use artillery, rockets, fpv-drones, but so far things are going well for us.
3. Ideally, complete the encirclement of #Avdeyevka. Then there are 2 options: either “unbreakable Azov” awaits us again (the conventional “Metrostroy” dug underground passages outside the city in 10 years, Koksokhim is all dug up), with daily extraction, as in Mariupol; or withdrawal and surrender of the #Avdeevka fortress. In any case, it is a serious blow for the Svidovites.
🔹II. On the #Dnieper:
1. The AFU try to get hold of the bridgehead, to develop. They are not succeeding. The situation is being corrected, including the results of the past command. It has been said many times, including by me, that the AFU is preparing in specific directions (areas). The forces and means were named, we knew how the defence was or was not organised ... God willing, Mikhail Teplinsky will rectify the situation.
🔹III. Manoeuvring of the enemy + #Zaporozhye:
1. The enemy is constantly manoeuvring reserves. They transferred reserves in the direction of #Kremennaya-#Kupyansk, so now it is difficult there. The AFU railway is still working, promptly, transferring reserves from one section to another. It is normal to manoeuvre reserves, you can do it even every week, if the infrastructure allows it. They do.
2. In #Zaporozhye they actively use artillery of various calibers. #Rabotino, #Verbovoye, they are trying to climb in small groups. Will it be possible to stop their onslaught and move forward on their shoulders? Not sure what's going now. Yes, the enemy’s resources are poor, but ours is not endless either.
3. There will be no mobilization now, at least until the presidential elections. There is a small flow of volunteers, not the same as 4-5 months ago (winter). Nevertheless, it is there.
🔹IV. In #Belgorod Region:
1. Ping-pong continues. The line is held by conscripts, local defence forces, border guards, and local Rosgvardiya (riot police, special forces). It runs every day.
🔹V. On #Crimea and the Threat in the Rear:
1. The enemy is trying to knock out the air defence.
2. We must be prepared for new actions of the GUR within the framework of sabotage-terrorist warfare, taking into account changes in delivery means (water is cold).
3. New (old) directions of threats in the rear. An attempt to shake up the situation in the North Caucasus (Dagestan). The calls of the influence group "Arrested" speaker, under the control of MI6, for “parity negotiations” should not lull and disorient. There are new attack attempts on the frontline, attempts of info war and sabotage in the rear.
🔹VI. On the Potential of #Russia and the Enemy:
1. Radiating cautious optimism, we can say that the Russian Army is beginning an imperceptible rise. We are far from the peak, but we are slowly learning to fight. New weapon systems are arriving. We are at the beginning of qualitative growth.
2. The enemy is at the beginning of a qualitative decline, which is associated with war fatigue, depletion of mobile resources, primarily motivated service life.
📌 The enemy has one chance to reverse the situation, to agree on a pause, due to which they will be able to assemble the corps again, increase motivation and attract motivated fighters.
t.me/sitreports /@voenkorKotenok/#smo/#ass/
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🇺🇸 #Oklahoma high school principal (Kirk Moore) seen charging at and disarming a school shooter.
The suspect, identified as 20-year-old Victor Hawkins, was a former student who said he wanted to shoot up the school “like the Columbine shooters did.” While taking down the shooter, Moore was shot in the leg. He is expected to recover.
When the Principal woke up that day, he never thought he would be tackling a gunman.
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🇨🇳🛢 How much strategic oil does the world actually have in reserve?
Global strategic crude oil inventories stood at ~2.5 BILLION barrels as of December 2025, according to the US Energy Information Administration.
China holds by far the largest stockpile at 1,397 million barrels, more than 3 times the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve of 413 million barrels, which itself sits at only 58% of its full storage capacity of 714 million barrels.
China added an average of 1.1 million barrels per day to its strategic inventories throughout 2025, with preliminary data suggesting it continued building stockpiles in early 2026 ahead of the Iran War.
Japan holds the 3rd-largest reserve at 263 million barrels, followed by OECD European countries at 179 million barrels.
Meanwhile, the US is releasing 172 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve to suppress oil prices, part of a broader 400 million barrel coordinated release agreed by 32 IEA member nations in March.
🔗 ...
🛢 JP Morgan Warns Oil Market Out of Balance, Prices Must Rise
🔸The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil flows, has removed 13.7 million barrels per day from global supply in April alone. A JP Morgan research note warns the market has no good way to replace it.
🔸Normally, spare production capacity in Saudi Arabia and the UAE acts as the market’s shock absorber. But that buffer has effectively been removed, eliminating the system’s first line of defense.
🔸With spare capacity unavailable, markets turned to inventories
➤ Global stockpiles are now being drained at ~7.1 mbd in April, an extraordinary pace, according to the note.
🔸Meanwhile, demand is collapsing because supply simply isn’t reaching users — “forced demand destruction.”The hardest hit sectors include:
▪️ Petrochemical plants across Asia are shutting down or slashing output as LPG, ethane, and naphtha flows from the Gulf collapse
▪️ Airline jet fuel ...
🛢⛽️ Global oil inventories are heading toward RECORD LOWS:
Global visible oil inventories have fallen -255 million barrels since the start of the conflict on February 27, to 7,864 million barrels.
Total estimated oil draws, including non-OECD refined products storage, have accelerated to 10.9 million barrels per day in April, the largest monthly draws on record since 2017.
Cumulative estimated draws since the start of the war now stand at 474 million barrels, with Hormuz flows holding at ~10% of normal, or 2.0 million barrels per day.
Meanwhile, even in an optimistic scenario where Strait of Hormuz flows begin recovering by late April, it is unlikely to prevent global visible inventories from reaching all-time lows, according to Goldman Sachs.
As inventories keep falling, physical oil markets are likely to require sharply higher prices for immediate delivery, since buyers cannot wait months for cheaper futures delivery when stocks are running critically low.
Goldman also warns...
