We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
🇺🇸🇵🇭🇯🇵 About US military exercises with partner countries in the Pacific zone
Two weeks after the incident in the South China Sea, which prompted the Philippine government to distance itself from the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative, and with Joe Biden issuing a military threat to China, two large-scale exercises have commenced in the region.
🔻Yesterday, the Kamandag-7 exercise began on several Philippine islands and in the South China Sea, with the participation of American Marines, as well as military personnel from the Philippines, Japan, and the Republic of Korea. The primary objective is to test the joint combat capabilities of the navy and marines in the event of a regional escalation. Approximately 2,000 individuals and around 70 units of various equipment will take part in this event.
🔻Today, the Annualex-2023 exercise started off the east coast of Japan and will continue until November 20. It involves up to 6,000 people, 32 ships, and 35 aircraft from the US, Japanese, Australian, Canadian, and Philippine navies. This exercise is more comprehensive in terms of strength, with the involvement of an aircraft carrier strike group led by the Carl Vinson and the possibility of a flight of B-52H strategic bombers from Andersen Air Base on Guam.
🔻It is interesting to note that these simultaneous exercises near the border with China began immediately after the Chinese aircraft carrier group, led by the flagship Shandong, concluded its training in the Philippine Sea and sailed back to China through the Taiwan Strait with 16 warships. However, the US Armed Forces exercises are conducted annually, and there is no indication of any significant escalation. Nevertheless, the White House supports the narrative of the "Chinese threat," justifying the substantial costs of maintaining forces in the region while simultaneously demonstrating support for its allies.
You can find a high-resolution map and an English version here. #China #USA #Philippines #Japan @rybar
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🇺🇸 #Oklahoma high school principal (Kirk Moore) seen charging at and disarming a school shooter.
The suspect, identified as 20-year-old Victor Hawkins, was a former student who said he wanted to shoot up the school “like the Columbine shooters did.” While taking down the shooter, Moore was shot in the leg. He is expected to recover.
When the Principal woke up that day, he never thought he would be tackling a gunman.
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🇨🇳🛢 How much strategic oil does the world actually have in reserve?
Global strategic crude oil inventories stood at ~2.5 BILLION barrels as of December 2025, according to the US Energy Information Administration.
China holds by far the largest stockpile at 1,397 million barrels, more than 3 times the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve of 413 million barrels, which itself sits at only 58% of its full storage capacity of 714 million barrels.
China added an average of 1.1 million barrels per day to its strategic inventories throughout 2025, with preliminary data suggesting it continued building stockpiles in early 2026 ahead of the Iran War.
Japan holds the 3rd-largest reserve at 263 million barrels, followed by OECD European countries at 179 million barrels.
Meanwhile, the US is releasing 172 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve to suppress oil prices, part of a broader 400 million barrel coordinated release agreed by 32 IEA member nations in March.
🔗 ...
🛢 JP Morgan Warns Oil Market Out of Balance, Prices Must Rise
🔸The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil flows, has removed 13.7 million barrels per day from global supply in April alone. A JP Morgan research note warns the market has no good way to replace it.
🔸Normally, spare production capacity in Saudi Arabia and the UAE acts as the market’s shock absorber. But that buffer has effectively been removed, eliminating the system’s first line of defense.
🔸With spare capacity unavailable, markets turned to inventories
➤ Global stockpiles are now being drained at ~7.1 mbd in April, an extraordinary pace, according to the note.
🔸Meanwhile, demand is collapsing because supply simply isn’t reaching users — “forced demand destruction.”The hardest hit sectors include:
▪️ Petrochemical plants across Asia are shutting down or slashing output as LPG, ethane, and naphtha flows from the Gulf collapse
▪️ Airline jet fuel ...
🛢⛽️ Global oil inventories are heading toward RECORD LOWS:
Global visible oil inventories have fallen -255 million barrels since the start of the conflict on February 27, to 7,864 million barrels.
Total estimated oil draws, including non-OECD refined products storage, have accelerated to 10.9 million barrels per day in April, the largest monthly draws on record since 2017.
Cumulative estimated draws since the start of the war now stand at 474 million barrels, with Hormuz flows holding at ~10% of normal, or 2.0 million barrels per day.
Meanwhile, even in an optimistic scenario where Strait of Hormuz flows begin recovering by late April, it is unlikely to prevent global visible inventories from reaching all-time lows, according to Goldman Sachs.
As inventories keep falling, physical oil markets are likely to require sharply higher prices for immediate delivery, since buyers cannot wait months for cheaper futures delivery when stocks are running critically low.
Goldman also warns...
