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February 08, 2024
IDF MANPOWER

🪖 🇮🇱 🇮🇱 "The IDF is preparing for the enormous and complex challenge of manpower management in accordance with needs that have not been the same since the establishment of the state. As has been published here on several occasions, the era of striving for a small, lethal and cheap army is over The regular service and the reduction of the load on the reserve system: the number of casualties and the wounded in the various arenas and the preparation for possible and immediate scenarios, led the IDF to present last night (Wednesday) a comprehensive plan to increase its force orders at all levels

🔶️ Of the 564 casualties whose names have been released so far, 55 percent are reservists. The IDF has treated approximately 13,000 wounded soldiers so far in the war - 2,830 of them were hospitalized, and the rest were released from the hospitals after a short treatment. These figures create a large gap in the number of fighters and it needs to be filled immediately.

🔶️ The army wants to increase the number of troops in the fighting battalions by 120 percent in the coming year, with one of the urgent tasks being to train commanders, to replace those who have fallen. One of the solutions launched is the release of regular soldiers directly into the reserves, while activating Order 8. But the strategic move that will be valid even after 2024 is the extension of regular service to three years among men and women in positions that until now required two years and eight months of service

🔶️ The age of release from reserve service will also increase from 40 to 46 for soldiers, and to 50 for officers. The age of volunteering will be extended to 66. In light of the unprecedented volunteering figures in the war - 50 thousand male and female volunteers - this is a significant addition

🔶️ Another change is in the reserve law. Today, reserve servicemen and women are called for operational employment once every three years. After the change in the law, the dosage will increase for operational employment per year. The three-year model stated that a reservist would do one to two weeks of training a year and 21 days of operational employment the following year and the following year a short training of a few days. In total the average was ten days a year. From now on the number will jump fourfold, and of course also at a higher risk, because the arenas are hotter.

🔶️ In the framework of the discrimination between parts of Israeli society, the issue of reserves is of particular critical importance. In the last four months, hundreds of thousands of people were recruited - 287 thousand during the peak period. No less than 40 thousand women (!) were part of the largest reserve recruitment in the country's history. Each and every one of them shouted "I am here" and then "after me" and together they gave the bleeding country inspiration and spirit. Some jumped without waiting for orders, and many did not agree to hear about returning home before the missions were completed

🔶️ However, the problem is deeper and mainly value in essence. The shortages in the ranks of the regular army, for example, and the lack of news on the issue of equality in the burden, are leading to moves that are already eroding the high motivation for combat service, which appeared - in a big way - from the beginning of the war. Early recruitment of prep school students, for example, while the ultra-orthodox youth are left out of the picture. Now it cannot be claimed that "the army does not need them". He needs them all"

https://www.ynet.co.il/news/article/yokra13792632

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OIL SHOCK

🇮🇱 ❌ 🇮🇷 🛢 📈 — Deutsche Bank: Oil Prices will go to $125/barrel if the Iran-Israel conflict spills over into the Straight of Hormuz

@CIG_Telegram

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Analysis

Developments in the Iran-Israel war. It is currently 1:11am in Tel Aviv and 1:42am in Tehran.

Main points:

Iran and Israel have started targeting each other’s energy infrastructure.

Iranian missiles continued to target and impact northern and central Israel.

Israel has started targeting Iranian oil infrastructure, including oil refineries and oil depots.

Israeli airstrikes continue to target various parts of Tehran and the surrounding areas.

Iranian air defence seems to finally be doing some damage to Israeli missiles and drones. In turn, Israel has deployed dozens of small quadcopters and loitering munitions to waste Iranian air defence and saturate for larger attacks with cruise missiles.

Drones launched from Iran and factions in Iraq continue to target northern and southern Israel.

Missiles & drones:

2 rockets were launched from the Khan Younis area of southern Gaza by an unknown Palestinian faction. Neither were intercepted, with the IDF claiming they hit an open area with no casualties.

2 rockets were ...

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OIL MARKETS REACT SHARPLY TO ESCALATING MIDDLE EAST TENSIONS

📈 WTI CRUDE IS NOW FORECAST TO HIT $94.10 BY YEAR-END, UP OVER $21 IN A WEEK, ACCORDING TO KALSHI MARKETS.

THE JUMP FOLLOWS IRAN’S CANCELLATION OF NUCLEAR TALKS WITH THE U.S., CITING ISRAELI AIRSTRIKES. WITH TENSIONS RISING, MARKETS ARE PRICING IN THE RISK OF REGIONAL ESCALATION AND POTENTIAL DISRUPTION TO OIL FLOWS THROUGH THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ, A KEY ROUTE FOR 20% OF GLOBAL OIL.

ANALYSTS WARN THAT A FULL CLOSURE OF THE STRAIT COULD PUSH PRICES ABOVE $120–$150 PER BARREL. ...

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