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Roundup 3/6/24

💜 📰

– Latvia announced the imminent introduction of a ban on the import of agricultural products from Russia from March 8. The Latvian market accounts for less than 1% of Russian agricultural exports

– Germany is rehearsing Scholz’s escape to secret headquarters – Spiegel

– Sudan did not supply weapons to Kiеv. There is no Ukrainian diplomatic or military presence in the country – FM Ali al-Sadiq Ali

– Tensions have arisen between the US and EU over the issue of frozen Russian assets – Politico

– Ukraine’s allies have collected almost all the funds necessary to implement the Czech initiative to purchase 800 thousand shells for the AFU – Bloomberg

– China will increase defense spending by 7.2% in 2024 – government report

– Ukrainian Ambassador to China Pavel Ryabikin is ignored by Chinese government agencies – Bloomberg

– The EC has allocated €1.5 billion for the accelerated militarization of EU industry in 2025-2027 – document

– The conflict in Ukraine indicates the need to expand the US military-industrial complex – Pentagon chief

– Azerbaijan reopens its embassy in Iran

– Orban, at a meeting with Trump, wants to discuss the issue of how “to achieve peace in Ukraine and in the eastern part of Europe. A meeting of politicians is scheduled for Mar 8 in Florida – EFE

– Ukraine is ready to accept restrictions on trade with the EU in order to defuse the political dispute with Poland. At the same time, he calls on the EU to ban the import of Russian grain – FT

– The President of Argentina plans a visit to Kiev in June as part of a tour of Europe – Infobae

– France has begun to withdraw its marine unit from Senegal – Seneweb

– Bulgaria, for political reasons, refused legal assistance to Russia on a request for a terrorist attack on the Crimean Bridge – Prosecutor General’s Office

– Stopping the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine will give the EC new opportunities for economic pressure on Hungary and Slovakia – TASS

– Bulgaria began transporting 100 armored personnel carriers to Ukraine – BTV

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00:01:30
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Dr. David Martin: "Remdesivir was too unethical to put into Ebola clinical trials in Africa because it had a 53% kill rate."

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00:01:18
Lady Graham

Serious allegations from former CIA officer Larry Johnson about Senator Lindsey Graham: “There will be news coming out in the next couple of months about how he has profited financially off of money that came out of Ukraine, laundered through Latvia and made it way into his bank account. And now we're talking significant amounts of money. Department of justice is looking at it.”

00:00:28
OIL SHOCK

🇮🇱 ❌ 🇮🇷 🛢 📈 — Deutsche Bank: Oil Prices will go to $125/barrel if the Iran-Israel conflict spills over into the Straight of Hormuz

@CIG_Telegram

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Analysis

Developments in the Iran-Israel war. It is currently 1:11am in Tel Aviv and 1:42am in Tehran.

Main points:

Iran and Israel have started targeting each other’s energy infrastructure.

Iranian missiles continued to target and impact northern and central Israel.

Israel has started targeting Iranian oil infrastructure, including oil refineries and oil depots.

Israeli airstrikes continue to target various parts of Tehran and the surrounding areas.

Iranian air defence seems to finally be doing some damage to Israeli missiles and drones. In turn, Israel has deployed dozens of small quadcopters and loitering munitions to waste Iranian air defence and saturate for larger attacks with cruise missiles.

Drones launched from Iran and factions in Iraq continue to target northern and southern Israel.

Missiles & drones:

2 rockets were launched from the Khan Younis area of southern Gaza by an unknown Palestinian faction. Neither were intercepted, with the IDF claiming they hit an open area with no casualties.

2 rockets were ...

Oil Prices

OIL MARKETS REACT SHARPLY TO ESCALATING MIDDLE EAST TENSIONS

📈 WTI CRUDE IS NOW FORECAST TO HIT $94.10 BY YEAR-END, UP OVER $21 IN A WEEK, ACCORDING TO KALSHI MARKETS.

THE JUMP FOLLOWS IRAN’S CANCELLATION OF NUCLEAR TALKS WITH THE U.S., CITING ISRAELI AIRSTRIKES. WITH TENSIONS RISING, MARKETS ARE PRICING IN THE RISK OF REGIONAL ESCALATION AND POTENTIAL DISRUPTION TO OIL FLOWS THROUGH THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ, A KEY ROUTE FOR 20% OF GLOBAL OIL.

ANALYSTS WARN THAT A FULL CLOSURE OF THE STRAIT COULD PUSH PRICES ABOVE $120–$150 PER BARREL. ...

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