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Amir Tsarfati Counter Argument

POSTED FOR POSTERITY
I NEITHER AGREE NOR DISAGREE
The Fake Gaza Casualty Numbers

• Main source of data is Gaza Health Ministry which reports more than 30,000 dead

  • Their claim is that a majority are women and children
     
    • White House has affirmed numbers through SecDef Lloyd Austin (over 25k) and President Biden (over 27k)
  • Both statements were marginalized by later clarifications
     
    • Problem #1 – Linear nature of casualties
  • Daily casualty figures hold steady at 270, plus or minus 15%
  • However, this number should vary greatly depending on level of military activity
     
    • Problem #2 – Non-Linear nature of women/children casualties
  • Because women and children are typically found together, the ratio of women-to-children casualties should remain fairly constant
  • However, the ratio of women-to-children casualties varies greatly
     
    • Problem #3 – Non-Linear nature of women/men casualties
  • Because of natural ebb and flow of warfare, there should be a correlation between casualties of women and men
  • However, not only is there no positive correlation, there is a strong negative correlation between the two
     
    • Problem #4 – Counting errors and illogical numbers
  • There are days when the numbers imply that some people “came back to life” because of counting errors
  • The three days with the highest number of women casualties occur when the men casualties are near zero, which is an improbable and illogical scenario suggesting arbitrary totals
     
    • Problem #5 – Casualty numbers not tied to real world population
  • The claim is that 70% of casualties are women or children, far higher than in any previous Israeli conflict
  • Based on the casualties of combatant men, for the percentages and numbers to work there could be only a few, if any, noncombatant men killed thus far
     
    • Actual numbers cannot be determined right now
  • Israel estimates at least 12,000 Hamas fighters have been killed
  • If 25,000 casualties is accurate, that would imply between a 1.4-to-1 and a 1-to-1 noncombatant to combatant casualty rate, which is remarkably low in a modern urban warfare situation where combatants have intentionally embedded themselves amongst civilian populations
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December 25, 2025
A Christmas Message from PrepperNow!
00:10:29
Flock off

Police in Winona Minnesota are stunned after every single one of their Flock cameras were suddenly removed in a single night.

According to the police department, all 8 of the town's cameras were cut down and hauled away.

Police are asking for the public's help to identify the individual, but the public has been responding with comments such as:

"The Flock cameras tore themselves down"
"Whoever did it, was fishing with me"
"Whoever it was, was at Bible study with me"

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00:00:28
20k people

Nearly 20,000 people are publicly vouching for a man accused of cutting down Flock cameras in a small West Virginia town.

People commented:

  • "He was saving my neighbor's dog from a fire all day, couldn't be him."

  • "This man is innocent. I saw him serving at a soup kitchen."

-"Couldn't be him. He was helping me replace the roof on a homeless shelter."

The man, Wesley Jackson, has pleaded Not Guilty.

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00:00:29
Doooom

US diesel crack surpasses $100 a barrel for the first time on supply disruptions

... and the supply of refined fuels is already nearly exhausted. A hard landing is visible ahead, for farmers, for trucking, and ... well, for everything that requires food (people) and energy (the entire economy).

These are very likely the final days of relative normalcy during which to prepare. Get ready.

https://boereport.com/2026/08/17/us-diesel-crack-surpasses-100-a-barrel-for-the-first-time-on-supply-disruptions/

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Food Crisis

🌾 🌍 🚜 JPMorgan warns a massive global food supply crisis could begin next year as fertilizer shortages tighten agricultural supply.

JPMorgan is the latest institutional research desk to warn that the next global food crisis may already be taking shape, driven by what its analysts describe as the "Five Ws": War, Weather, Warehousing, Water, and Waste.

In a new report titled Food Security Is National Security: A Compounding Storm, a team led by London-based senior global economist Nora Szentivanyi warned that disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz and the emergence of a potentially historic El Niño could weaken crop yields, constrain agricultural production, and keep food inflation elevated through the first half of 2027.

"Successive shocks since COVID have compounded, eroding food production capacity and keeping food price pressures elevated into 2027," Szentivanyi said, warning that "this is not a short-lived shock; it has reduced the likelihood of near-term disinflation, and the food ...

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