We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
POSTED FOR POSTERITY
I NEITHER AGREE NOR DISAGREE
The Fake Gaza Casualty Numbers
• Main source of data is Gaza Health Ministry which reports more than 30,000 dead
- Their claim is that a majority are women and children
• White House has affirmed numbers through SecDef Lloyd Austin (over 25k) and President Biden (over 27k) - Both statements were marginalized by later clarifications
• Problem #1 – Linear nature of casualties - Daily casualty figures hold steady at 270, plus or minus 15%
- However, this number should vary greatly depending on level of military activity
• Problem #2 – Non-Linear nature of women/children casualties - Because women and children are typically found together, the ratio of women-to-children casualties should remain fairly constant
- However, the ratio of women-to-children casualties varies greatly
• Problem #3 – Non-Linear nature of women/men casualties - Because of natural ebb and flow of warfare, there should be a correlation between casualties of women and men
- However, not only is there no positive correlation, there is a strong negative correlation between the two
• Problem #4 – Counting errors and illogical numbers - There are days when the numbers imply that some people “came back to life” because of counting errors
- The three days with the highest number of women casualties occur when the men casualties are near zero, which is an improbable and illogical scenario suggesting arbitrary totals
• Problem #5 – Casualty numbers not tied to real world population - The claim is that 70% of casualties are women or children, far higher than in any previous Israeli conflict
- Based on the casualties of combatant men, for the percentages and numbers to work there could be only a few, if any, noncombatant men killed thus far
• Actual numbers cannot be determined right now - Israel estimates at least 12,000 Hamas fighters have been killed
- If 25,000 casualties is accurate, that would imply between a 1.4-to-1 and a 1-to-1 noncombatant to combatant casualty rate, which is remarkably low in a modern urban warfare situation where combatants have intentionally embedded themselves amongst civilian populations
Ukrainian forces have begun training and testing exoskeletons for battlefield use. Soldiers from the 147th Separate Artillery Brigade are using them in the Pokrovsk sector for both logistics and frontline operations. The goal is to reduce physical strain, especially when loading heavy artillery shells into howitzers without automatic loaders. Artillery crews can handle up to 1200 kg of ammunition per day, and early tests show that exoskeletons help them work faster and with less fatigue Above all, by improving the conditions for those soldiers on the front lines who handle such heavy loads, plus the stress of work. Seeking to reduce overall fatigue in the troops
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🇮🇷🇮🇱 - 14 wounded in Iranian missile strike in central Israel, according to Israeli media.
🇬🇧🇮🇶 - A drone struck British Castrol oil warehouses in Erbil, Iraqi Kurdistan, causing extensive damage.
🇮🇷🇮🇱 - Iran launched 9 missiles towards Israel this morning alone, with at least 3 of them being cluster missiles.
🇱🇧🇮🇱 - Over the past 12 hours, Hezbollah launched counterattacks in Khiam and Qantara, in the Nabatieh direction, southeast Lebanon. Hezbollah recaptured northern Khiam, with fighting ongoing for the south of the town. Hezbollah units also re-entered Qantara; frontline sources reported clashes in the center of the town last night.
🇱🇧🇮🇱 - 48 IDF soldiers have been wounded in clashes with Hezbollah over the last 24 hours in southern Lebanon, according to the Israeli Army.
🇱🇧🇮🇱 - "The Israeli army is barely catching its breath in southern Lebanon, and its resources are less than in the previous round of fighting," - Haaretz....
🇺🇸 Blue Owl Capital just disclosed that investors tried to pull 40.7% of one fund and 21.9% of another in a single quarter, and both funds gave the same answer, you can only have 5% back, and everyone else waits in line.
This is a bank run, not a normal withdrawal.
Wall Street spent the last decade selling millions of investors on something called semi-liquid private credit, higher yields, steady income and the promise you could get your money back every quarter if you needed it. What they buried in the fine print was what happens when too many people try to leave at the same time.
Analysts who have covered private credit for decades say nothing on this scale has ever been reported before at any major private credit manager.
These funds do not hold stocks you can sell on a Tuesday afternoon, they hold private loans to mid sized companies that cannot be liquidated quickly without destroying the price for every investor still trapped inside.
This product was originally designed for ...
🇺🇸 President Trump wants to switch to war economy in 2027 with massive increase in military spending and massive cuts to healthcare and other domestic agencies
Once a deficit hawk — he said in 2016 that he thought he could balance the budget in five years — Trump ended his first term with $7.8 trillion in added debt. His 2027 proposal is expected to give an update on 10-year deficit projections currently estimated at around $16 trillion.
The GOP's message for the Midterms will be focused on the "need" for a massive defense build up while the Democrats' message will be focused on affordability.
The fiscal 2027 budget will be the first time Trump puts his second-term governing agenda into one comprehensive document — with the numbers to back it up. The budget he released last year lacked detailed line-by-line spending targets and the economic assumptions necessary to project the long-term cost of his proposals.
Investors in US Treasuries will be looking to see if the debt and ...
