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Amir Tsarfati Counter Argument

POSTED FOR POSTERITY
I NEITHER AGREE NOR DISAGREE
The Fake Gaza Casualty Numbers

• Main source of data is Gaza Health Ministry which reports more than 30,000 dead

  • Their claim is that a majority are women and children
     
    • White House has affirmed numbers through SecDef Lloyd Austin (over 25k) and President Biden (over 27k)
  • Both statements were marginalized by later clarifications
     
    • Problem #1 – Linear nature of casualties
  • Daily casualty figures hold steady at 270, plus or minus 15%
  • However, this number should vary greatly depending on level of military activity
     
    • Problem #2 – Non-Linear nature of women/children casualties
  • Because women and children are typically found together, the ratio of women-to-children casualties should remain fairly constant
  • However, the ratio of women-to-children casualties varies greatly
     
    • Problem #3 – Non-Linear nature of women/men casualties
  • Because of natural ebb and flow of warfare, there should be a correlation between casualties of women and men
  • However, not only is there no positive correlation, there is a strong negative correlation between the two
     
    • Problem #4 – Counting errors and illogical numbers
  • There are days when the numbers imply that some people “came back to life” because of counting errors
  • The three days with the highest number of women casualties occur when the men casualties are near zero, which is an improbable and illogical scenario suggesting arbitrary totals
     
    • Problem #5 – Casualty numbers not tied to real world population
  • The claim is that 70% of casualties are women or children, far higher than in any previous Israeli conflict
  • Based on the casualties of combatant men, for the percentages and numbers to work there could be only a few, if any, noncombatant men killed thus far
     
    • Actual numbers cannot be determined right now
  • Israel estimates at least 12,000 Hamas fighters have been killed
  • If 25,000 casualties is accurate, that would imply between a 1.4-to-1 and a 1-to-1 noncombatant to combatant casualty rate, which is remarkably low in a modern urban warfare situation where combatants have intentionally embedded themselves amongst civilian populations
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September 25, 2025
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They threatened him and began chanting ‘Allahu Akbar’ as they kicked him out.

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Retire

A 65-year-old couple retiring in 2025 with average earnings will receive an estimated $1.34 million in lifetime benefits, while contributing only $720,000 in today’s dollars.

That shortfall—more than $600,000 per couple—is being made up by younger workers.

“Most of the growth in spending has gone to retirement and healthcare, while programs that promote upward mobility... have been left behind”

https://www.newsweek.com/social-security-medicare-young-workers-cost-10477619

September 25, 2025
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