POSTED FOR POSTERITY
I NEITHER AGREE NOR DISAGREE
The Fake Gaza Casualty Numbers

• Main source of data is Gaza Health Ministry which reports more than 30,000 dead

• Their claim is that a majority are women and children
   
  • White House has affirmed numbers through SecDef Lloyd Austin (over 25k) and President Biden (over 27k)
• Both statements were marginalized by later clarifications
   
  • Problem #1 – Linear nature of casualties
• Daily casualty figures hold steady at 270, plus or minus 15%
• However, this number should vary greatly depending on level of military activity
   
  • Problem #2 – Non-Linear nature of women/children casualties
• Because women and children are typically found together, the ratio of women-to-children casualties should remain fairly constant
• However, the ratio of women-to-children casualties varies greatly
   
  • Problem #3 – Non-Linear nature of women/men casualties
• Because of natural ebb and flow of warfare, there should be a correlation between casualties of women and men
• However, not only is there no positive correlation, there is a strong negative correlation between the two
   
  • Problem #4 – Counting errors and illogical numbers
• There are days when the numbers imply that some people “came back to life” because of counting errors
• The three days with the highest number of women casualties occur when the men casualties are near zero, which is an improbable and illogical scenario suggesting arbitrary totals
   
  • Problem #5 – Casualty numbers not tied to real world population
• The claim is that 70% of casualties are women or children, far higher than in any previous Israeli conflict
• Based on the casualties of combatant men, for the percentages and numbers to work there could be only a few, if any, noncombatant men killed thus far
   
  • Actual numbers cannot be determined right now
• Israel estimates at least 12,000 Hamas fighters have been killed
• If 25,000 casualties is accurate, that would imply between a 1.4-to-1 and a 1-to-1 noncombatant to combatant casualty rate, which is remarkably low in a modern urban warfare situation where combatants have intentionally embedded themselves amongst civilian populations