We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
POSTED FOR POSTERITY
I NEITHER AGREE NOR DISAGREE
The Fake Gaza Casualty Numbers
• Main source of data is Gaza Health Ministry which reports more than 30,000 dead
- Their claim is that a majority are women and children
• White House has affirmed numbers through SecDef Lloyd Austin (over 25k) and President Biden (over 27k) - Both statements were marginalized by later clarifications
• Problem #1 – Linear nature of casualties - Daily casualty figures hold steady at 270, plus or minus 15%
- However, this number should vary greatly depending on level of military activity
• Problem #2 – Non-Linear nature of women/children casualties - Because women and children are typically found together, the ratio of women-to-children casualties should remain fairly constant
- However, the ratio of women-to-children casualties varies greatly
• Problem #3 – Non-Linear nature of women/men casualties - Because of natural ebb and flow of warfare, there should be a correlation between casualties of women and men
- However, not only is there no positive correlation, there is a strong negative correlation between the two
• Problem #4 – Counting errors and illogical numbers - There are days when the numbers imply that some people “came back to life” because of counting errors
- The three days with the highest number of women casualties occur when the men casualties are near zero, which is an improbable and illogical scenario suggesting arbitrary totals
• Problem #5 – Casualty numbers not tied to real world population - The claim is that 70% of casualties are women or children, far higher than in any previous Israeli conflict
- Based on the casualties of combatant men, for the percentages and numbers to work there could be only a few, if any, noncombatant men killed thus far
• Actual numbers cannot be determined right now - Israel estimates at least 12,000 Hamas fighters have been killed
- If 25,000 casualties is accurate, that would imply between a 1.4-to-1 and a 1-to-1 noncombatant to combatant casualty rate, which is remarkably low in a modern urban warfare situation where combatants have intentionally embedded themselves amongst civilian populations
🇸🇪 Sweden passes 'good behaviour' law to kick out misbehaving immigrants
Sweden's parliament passed a law on Monday allowing authorities to revoke immigrants' residency permits based on bad behaviour, such as having unpaid debts, doing undeclared work or links to extremist organisations.
The law, which covers pending permits but also retroactively already granted permits, is part of a wider tightening of immigration rules by the right-wing government and its support party, the nationalist Sweden Democrats, ahead of a parliamentary election in September.
The law has been criticised by the opposition and human rights advocacy groups as arbitrary because decisions would be taken on behaviour that has not been deemed criminal.
The law does not specify what types of behaviours are deemed unacceptable but the government has mentioned unpaid debts, not paying taxes, criminality and links to extremist organisations. The Migration Agency is tasked ...
The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) has fallen to 340.3 million barrels, its lowest level since 1983, after the government released another 8.9 million barrels last week.
The reserve has dropped 18% (75 million barrels) since the Iran conflict began in February.
The administration has used SPR releases to help keep oil prices from surging.
Source: CNN
After several hours of confusion and uncertainty, it’s time to bring some order to the situation.
What exactly did Trump agree to?
The agreement rests on two very lean principles:
“The Strait of Hormuz must remain open to free navigation, and Iran must not possess nuclear weapons.”
Trump has insisted in nearly every other post that Iran will not be allowed to obtain nuclear weapons, while simultaneously pushing to keep the Strait of Hormuz open to unrestricted maritime traffic at any cost.
But why was Trump so eager to reach such a minimal agreement? Why did he pressure Israel not to interfere, even at the cost of merging the various fronts and exposing soldiers to greater danger? Why did J.D. Vance, who has opposed military intervention, suddenly move to the forefront while Rubio faded into the background? And why has no one managed to offer a convincing explanation beyond references to the World Cup, birthdays, the midterm elections, and other superficial reasons for this apparent obsession?
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