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šŸ‡µšŸ‡ø šŸ‡®šŸ‡± šŸ‡®šŸ‡· Waiting for war in Haifa | Gidon Ben-Zvi

šŸ‘¤ Gidon Ben-Zvi contributes to The Algemeiner, The Times of Israel, The Jerusalem Post, CiF Watch and blogs at Jerusalem State of Mind.

šŸ”¶ļø "Israelis sitting in front of their television screens can’t help but notice that the Home Front Command’s list of areas where red alert alarms are going off is increasing daily. And with Hezbollah’s theater of operations expanding, Israel is effectively shrinking. As a result, residents of Haifa—Israel’s third largest city, with a population of close to 300,000—believe that it’s only a matter of time before they are ordered to evacuate their homes."

šŸ”¶ļø "Haifa is now next in line to be attacked by Hezbollah. It lives a life in limbo. We continue to work. Our children go to school. But the red alerts are multiplying. My cousin in the northern coastal city of Nahariya—about a 30-minute drive from Haifa—now regularly hears bombs overhead, forcing her and her family to run to their home’s safe room. My wife and her workplace colleagues in Acre—25 minutes by car from where we live—are constantly hearing sirens. Virtually every afternoon, my kids come home from school with updates about another classmate whose father has been called up for a second tour of reserve duty, this time in the north."

šŸ”¶ļø "We have entered a period of threat and waiting. What the people of the north are experiencing today is not unlike the hamtanah the ā€œWaiting Periodā€ before the 1967 Six-Day War. During the three weeks of the hamtanah, Arab nations were poised to annihilate Israel. Jerusalem mobilized the IDF reserves. In this tension-filled time, Israeli morale plummeted, catalyzing a political crisis that led to the formation of Israel’s first unity government."

šŸ”¶ļø "Based on Hezbollah’s modus operandi, anything short of a rapid reestablishment of the preemption doctrine could well lead to Israel having to abandon the Galilee and other parts of the north. At this rate, people will soon be talking about a Kfar Saba envelope in addition to the one around Gaza. It would be a damned shame to have to leave it all behind."

https://www.jns.org/waiting-for-war-in-haifa/

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šŸ‡®šŸ‡± āŒ šŸ‡®šŸ‡· šŸ›¢ šŸ“ˆ — Deutsche Bank: Oil Prices will go to $125/barrel if the Iran-Israel conflict spills over into the Straight of Hormuz

@CIG_Telegram

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Analysis

Developments in the Iran-Israel war. It is currently 1:11am in Tel Aviv and 1:42am in Tehran.

Main points:

Iran and Israel have started targeting each other’s energy infrastructure.

Iranian missiles continued to target and impact northern and central Israel.

Israel has started targeting Iranian oil infrastructure, including oil refineries and oil depots.

Israeli airstrikes continue to target various parts of Tehran and the surrounding areas.

Iranian air defence seems to finally be doing some damage to Israeli missiles and drones. In turn, Israel has deployed dozens of small quadcopters and loitering munitions to waste Iranian air defence and saturate for larger attacks with cruise missiles.

Drones launched from Iran and factions in Iraq continue to target northern and southern Israel.

Missiles & drones:

2 rockets were launched from the Khan Younis area of southern Gaza by an unknown Palestinian faction. Neither were intercepted, with the IDF claiming they hit an open area with no casualties.

2 rockets were ...

Oil Prices

OIL MARKETS REACT SHARPLY TO ESCALATING MIDDLE EAST TENSIONS

šŸ“ˆ WTI CRUDE IS NOW FORECAST TO HIT $94.10 BY YEAR-END, UP OVER $21 IN A WEEK, ACCORDING TO KALSHI MARKETS.

THE JUMP FOLLOWS IRAN’S CANCELLATION OF NUCLEAR TALKS WITH THE U.S., CITING ISRAELI AIRSTRIKES. WITH TENSIONS RISING, MARKETS ARE PRICING IN THE RISK OF REGIONAL ESCALATION AND POTENTIAL DISRUPTION TO OIL FLOWS THROUGH THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ, A KEY ROUTE FOR 20% OF GLOBAL OIL.

ANALYSTS WARN THAT A FULL CLOSURE OF THE STRAIT COULD PUSH PRICES ABOVE $120–$150 PER BARREL. ...

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