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Polling

Survey of up-to-date and extensive Palestinian public opinion: 73% strongly support Hamas's decision to launch the 7.10 attack.

The Palestinian Center for Political Research and Surveys published today a comprehensive survey conducted at the end of May on a variety of burning questions related to the current conflict. The survey included about 1570 participants, half from the West Bank and half from Gaza.

At a glance, the survey shows a rising trend in Palestinian public support for Hamas and its actions, with confidence that it will win the war and remain in control of Gaza afterward.

Here are some data points from the survey:

  • 73% of respondents answered: Hamas made the right decision when it went to war on 7.10 - the highest figure in this question since the beginning of the war.
  • 96% of Palestinians who did not watch videos from 7.10 do not believe Hamas committed atrocities against Israeli civilians.
  • 54% of Palestinians who saw the videos from 7.10 do not believe Hamas committed atrocities against Israeli civilians.
  • 79% of respondents believe Hamas will win the war - the highest rate since the beginning of the war.
  • 61% of respondents in the survey prefer Hamas to continue to rule the Strip after the war (71% of Gaza residents and 46% of West Bank residents prefer this).
  • In the case of elections for the PA presidency between Abu Mazen and Ismail Haniyeh, Abu Mazen would win 5% of the votes and Ismail Haniyeh would win 46% of the votes. 46% stated they would not vote in the elections.
  • Support rates for Hamas and Fatah in general elections: 17% will support Fatah, 41% will support Hamas.
  • Only 32% of respondents in the survey support a two-state solution.
  • 52% support armed struggle as a way to end the occupation and establish an independent Palestinian state.
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🇮🇱 ❌ 🇮🇷 🛢 📈 — Deutsche Bank: Oil Prices will go to $125/barrel if the Iran-Israel conflict spills over into the Straight of Hormuz

@CIG_Telegram

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Analysis

Developments in the Iran-Israel war. It is currently 1:11am in Tel Aviv and 1:42am in Tehran.

Main points:

Iran and Israel have started targeting each other’s energy infrastructure.

Iranian missiles continued to target and impact northern and central Israel.

Israel has started targeting Iranian oil infrastructure, including oil refineries and oil depots.

Israeli airstrikes continue to target various parts of Tehran and the surrounding areas.

Iranian air defence seems to finally be doing some damage to Israeli missiles and drones. In turn, Israel has deployed dozens of small quadcopters and loitering munitions to waste Iranian air defence and saturate for larger attacks with cruise missiles.

Drones launched from Iran and factions in Iraq continue to target northern and southern Israel.

Missiles & drones:

2 rockets were launched from the Khan Younis area of southern Gaza by an unknown Palestinian faction. Neither were intercepted, with the IDF claiming they hit an open area with no casualties.

2 rockets were ...

Oil Prices

OIL MARKETS REACT SHARPLY TO ESCALATING MIDDLE EAST TENSIONS

📈 WTI CRUDE IS NOW FORECAST TO HIT $94.10 BY YEAR-END, UP OVER $21 IN A WEEK, ACCORDING TO KALSHI MARKETS.

THE JUMP FOLLOWS IRAN’S CANCELLATION OF NUCLEAR TALKS WITH THE U.S., CITING ISRAELI AIRSTRIKES. WITH TENSIONS RISING, MARKETS ARE PRICING IN THE RISK OF REGIONAL ESCALATION AND POTENTIAL DISRUPTION TO OIL FLOWS THROUGH THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ, A KEY ROUTE FOR 20% OF GLOBAL OIL.

ANALYSTS WARN THAT A FULL CLOSURE OF THE STRAIT COULD PUSH PRICES ABOVE $120–$150 PER BARREL. ...

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