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🇰🇪 On the mass unrest in Kenya
Since June 20th, there have been daily protests in Kenya with thousands of people participating.
The reason for the protests was the government's proposal to introduce additional fees on basic goods such as bread, vegetable oil and sugar in order to overcome the budget deficit. These measures caused understandable unrest across the country, as the population is already struggling to make ends meet, and additional taxes will only exacerbate the situation.
▪️On June 20th, protests in the Kenyan capital Nairobi and other major cities gathered thousands of people, against whom the police used tear gas and, as reported, live ammunition. During the suppression of the rallies, 1 protester was killed and another 200 were injured.
Soon after, the parliament decided to revise the budget amendments on June 25th. For this same day, the opposition planned large-scale protests, which are now unfolding and have already resulted in the storming of government buildings.
▪️Meanwhile, government spokesman Isaac Mwaura suspected foreign powers of sponsoring the protests. In the same speech, he mentioned that the current president Ruto could have made statements that displeased other people.
In particular, he reminded of the Kenyan leader's participation in the Ukrainian peace summit in Switzerland. Thus, he indirectly accused the Russian leadership of instigating the protests.
▪️Also, some Western observers note the appearance of the Russian flag at the protests, which does not indicate the presence of instigators from Russia. Recently, the tricolor has become a symbol of protest against the West on the African continent, and in the logic of rallies directed against the government, its appearance is quite appropriate.
🔻The reaction of the Kenyan officials shows how the Western press has influenced the local government. Now all the problems within the country can be conveniently attributed to the cursed Russians, instead of seeing the beam in their own eye. And it's understandable: just the other day, Kenya became the main non-NATO ally of the USA, and the new status obliges a certain politeness on a whole range of foreign policy issues.
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🇺🇸 #Oklahoma high school principal (Kirk Moore) seen charging at and disarming a school shooter.
The suspect, identified as 20-year-old Victor Hawkins, was a former student who said he wanted to shoot up the school “like the Columbine shooters did.” While taking down the shooter, Moore was shot in the leg. He is expected to recover.
When the Principal woke up that day, he never thought he would be tackling a gunman.
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Two months after the U.S. and Israel bombed Iran on February 28, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for most tanker traffic, forcing more than 10 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude output shut-ins across the Middle Eastern oil producers.
The two-month-long closure of the Strait of Hormuz is longer than analysts had expected at the start of the war. Most assumed back then that the Strait would open by April and producers could restart shut-in wells in May.
Even if the Strait of Hormuz opened to free tanker traffic today, oil supply from the Middle East will take months to start flowing again and reach consumers in Asia, who were the first to feel the supply shock.
The longer the chokepoint remains off limits to most tanker traffic, the worse the scars would be on global supply and economic growth.
The restart of thousands of oil wells across the Middle East would be a big challenge. Some countries would need weeks, but others – like Iraq – many months to bring ...
🍚 War on Iran & El Niño threaten world rice production
Global rice supply is expected to decline this year as farmers across Asia reduce planting areas due to fertilizer shortages and higher fuel costs linked to the US-Israeli war on Iran, while an emerging El Niño weather pattern is also likely to further limit production of the world’s most widely consumed staple.
The impact of the war in West Asia is being felt by farmers in major exporting countries such as Thailand and Vietnam, as well as in import-dependent nations like the Philippines and Indonesia, according to growers and traders. Disruptions to fuel and fertilizer shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a key global shipping chokepoint linking the Gulf to international markets, have contributed to the strain.
Smallholder farmers in Southeast Asia are also facing added pressure as El Niño is expected to bring hotter and drier conditions in the second half of the year.
🔗 The Cradle
🛢 “Why aren’t oil prices higher?” “How can the oil market be so complacent?”
Oil prices almost always trade to extremes. Right before it does, it always gets “obvious” from a fundamental setup standpoint.
I remember a great conversation I had with Nelson Wu of Open Square Capital about the oil market being analogous to toilet paper. You don’t realize how badly you need it until you run out of it.
Oil prices trade on the margin. As long as there are onshore inventories to draw from, traders don’t panic. It’s when you run low on onshore inventories that panic starts to set in.
Goldman published an update on Thursday that basically captured the storage math phenomenon that we are seeing:
Global visible total oil inventories remain bloated relative to historical standards. If, for example, we had started the conflict with global oil inventories at the 2025 lows, WTI and Brent would already be above $200/bbl.
The ~1.4 billion bbl cushion at the start of 2026 is what gave the US ...
