We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
🇺🇸🗣🇦🇫❗️🇺🇸 — 🏴 ZeroHedge | Former CIA Officer Warns: 1,000 Al-Qaeda Fighters In US For Next Homeland Attack | January 1, 2025:
"In a recent discussion on the Shawn Ryan Show, former CIA targeting officer Sarah Adams warned of a potentially devastating attack planned by Al-Qaeda terrorists on American soil.
The interview offers significant insights into what may be unfolding, as Al-Qaeda sleeper cells could be activating in the wake of the New Orleans terrorist attack and a possible vehicle-borne improvised explosive device (VBIED) in the rear of a rented Tesla Cybertruck that exploded outside Trump's hotel in Las Vegas just hours later.
Ryan asked Adams: "I just want to clarify. You are 100% certain that there are 1,000 plus Al-Qaeda-trained fighters within the US borders?"
Adams, currently a global threat advisor with extensive experience in Middle Eastern affairs, responded: "Well, Al-Qaeda says they trained and deployed a thousand for this attack. First off, I think there are more than a thousand Al-Qaeda members in the United States, but for the Homeland Attack, that number is based on what Al-Qaeda is saying, so they could exaggerate it; however, they did have about 1,400 in the Hamas Attack so the number is not off from what they did in the first round of attacks."
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🛢 We Are 'Still' Going Full Speed Into The Wall
Product storage is about to get tighter unless China steps in and lifts the product export ban. If it does, expect a meaningful reversal in crude.
WTI is barely hanging on to $70 for its dear life, but please remember that consumers use petroleum products like gasoline and diesel; they don’t use crude oil. Refineries do, and this is why it was always important for us to pay attention to crack spreads along with crude timespreads.
Note: Please divide it by 3.
The fever in the market today is that crude is oversupplied, but products are undersupplied. How can this be possible?
Well, China’s June crude import data so far is -4.7 million b/d y-o-y, and teapot refineries are operating at 50% utilization. Compared to US refineries operating at 95% and PADD 2 refineries operating over 100%, you can see where the disconnect is.
But here’s the thing. If end-user demand isn’t down and you still have a production shut-in of ~8 million...
🇮🇷🚫🚢 Here's my analysis of the Strait of Hormuz situation for the last 24 hours.
As I noted yesterday, I was seeing a lot of vessels using the Oman route to exit. This was following the announcement by Oman and IMO. The IRGC retaliated today on a vessel, but even after the attack, I am still seeing transits. It's a lot less, but there are vessels willing to take the risk.
On the inbound front, the flow is still heavily restricted. Whatever outflow we are seeing today is unsustainable as there are not enough non-Iranian tankers going in. In particular, we need empty VLCCs going in to load up crude. This is just a trickle so far.
In my view, the traffic in the Oman lane will lead to more escalation by IRGC. Without throttling flows entirely in the Southern lane, IRGC will lose control of its leverage over the Strait. If they act, then it's a question of what the US does after.
I think this is only the beginning.
🔗 @HFI_Research
