We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
Iran and the US - Is Trump serious?
The truly interesting news to me is not from the impressive bombers. But from the gray things.
In recent days, India , unlike the rest of the industrialized world, has been among the few countries that Trump has not come against in the trade war. There is a reason for this: India will be the world's cheap labor manufacturer and will replace China.
If India in 10-20 years will have Iranian oil instead of Saudi oil - that's not good for the US. After all, you are a superpower. You're not just being nice. Your goal is to create control: that the country that produces your products (India) will buy the energy from the country that buys weapons from you (Saudi Arabia), and all the products and energy will pass through the trade route (Israel) under your control.
These are superpowers. They don't aim to score the most goals - but to buy the league. Trump's secondary goal in the trade war, alongside the restoration of American industry, is to engineer the industries, natural resources and trade routes to America's benefit.
For years, American presidents have preferred a “nuclear Iran over the Spectrum.”
1. Democrats loved her because they wanted to tear Iran away from China.
2. Republicans are against it because they want to tear Russia away from China.
Along the way, Arab countries and Israel join forces, buy weapons, and make agreements under US auspices.
President Trump, unlike American presidents and his own presidency since 2016, is serious about Iran because the trade war is his top goal.
The policy of "maintaining power and the balance of terror" between Iran on its path to nuclear weapons and the Arab countries and Israel is no longer relevant. If China invests billions in Iran, if the Houthis, under the auspices of Iran, block a shipping route, if Iran occasionally flirts with India, if Hezbollah threatens gas rigs - Iran is entering head-on into Trump's superpower war.
The policy of containing Iran served Iran in another era: before the US became an energy powerhouse, before the Abraham Accords, before the Russia-Ukraine war, before Iran proved with the Houthis that it had the power to stop trade routes, before Western European radicalism.
Iran sits between China and India. It is a country that, potentially, just from selling energy, can hold Asia and become a power in its own right. In the era of the trade war - in which the US is seeking to create control over trade routes: the Panama Canal, Greenland, and the completion of the Abraham Accords for the trade route that will pass through Israel and Gaza - Iran has no right to exist as a country that is not a clear American proxy, otherwise it is an energy threat.
For the same reason that the Trump administration is serious about the Gaza Strip.
For the same reason he's serious about Greenland and Panama.
This is how serious the Trump administration is about Iran.
We are in the era of superpower warfare and the US's goal now is to create control over everything related to industrial, energy, and logistical trade.
In my opinion: Trump is very serious.
(Topaz Ram)
🇺🇸 #Oklahoma high school principal (Kirk Moore) seen charging at and disarming a school shooter.
The suspect, identified as 20-year-old Victor Hawkins, was a former student who said he wanted to shoot up the school “like the Columbine shooters did.” While taking down the shooter, Moore was shot in the leg. He is expected to recover.
When the Principal woke up that day, he never thought he would be tackling a gunman.
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🇨🇳🛢 How much strategic oil does the world actually have in reserve?
Global strategic crude oil inventories stood at ~2.5 BILLION barrels as of December 2025, according to the US Energy Information Administration.
China holds by far the largest stockpile at 1,397 million barrels, more than 3 times the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve of 413 million barrels, which itself sits at only 58% of its full storage capacity of 714 million barrels.
China added an average of 1.1 million barrels per day to its strategic inventories throughout 2025, with preliminary data suggesting it continued building stockpiles in early 2026 ahead of the Iran War.
Japan holds the 3rd-largest reserve at 263 million barrels, followed by OECD European countries at 179 million barrels.
Meanwhile, the US is releasing 172 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve to suppress oil prices, part of a broader 400 million barrel coordinated release agreed by 32 IEA member nations in March.
🔗 ...
🛢 JP Morgan Warns Oil Market Out of Balance, Prices Must Rise
🔸The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil flows, has removed 13.7 million barrels per day from global supply in April alone. A JP Morgan research note warns the market has no good way to replace it.
🔸Normally, spare production capacity in Saudi Arabia and the UAE acts as the market’s shock absorber. But that buffer has effectively been removed, eliminating the system’s first line of defense.
🔸With spare capacity unavailable, markets turned to inventories
➤ Global stockpiles are now being drained at ~7.1 mbd in April, an extraordinary pace, according to the note.
🔸Meanwhile, demand is collapsing because supply simply isn’t reaching users — “forced demand destruction.”The hardest hit sectors include:
▪️ Petrochemical plants across Asia are shutting down or slashing output as LPG, ethane, and naphtha flows from the Gulf collapse
▪️ Airline jet fuel ...
🛢⛽️ Global oil inventories are heading toward RECORD LOWS:
Global visible oil inventories have fallen -255 million barrels since the start of the conflict on February 27, to 7,864 million barrels.
Total estimated oil draws, including non-OECD refined products storage, have accelerated to 10.9 million barrels per day in April, the largest monthly draws on record since 2017.
Cumulative estimated draws since the start of the war now stand at 474 million barrels, with Hormuz flows holding at ~10% of normal, or 2.0 million barrels per day.
Meanwhile, even in an optimistic scenario where Strait of Hormuz flows begin recovering by late April, it is unlikely to prevent global visible inventories from reaching all-time lows, according to Goldman Sachs.
As inventories keep falling, physical oil markets are likely to require sharply higher prices for immediate delivery, since buyers cannot wait months for cheaper futures delivery when stocks are running critically low.
Goldman also warns...
