We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
My preliminary analysis based on the events of the last 48 hours are that despite the US strikes, muted Iranian response, and dubious announcement of a ceasefire— the fundamental strategic situation between Israel, Iran, and the US has not changed.
Israel continues to seek regime change. Iran's nuclear program has apparently not been destroyed. And there is little hope that the United States can resume diplomacy with Iran.
Iran's retaliation and their apparent decision not to withdraw from the NPT or close the Strait of Hormuz is de-escalatory. Trump has clearly preferred a diplomatic resolution throughout the 60-day timetable and the "12-day war."
Israel cannot survive a sustained conflict of this nature with Iran. Which means they will have to escalate their tactics or sue for a temporary ceasefire.
Earlier today, the Washington Post reported that IRGC commanders received a 12-hour ultimatum from Mossad to oppose to Iranian regime or have their families killed. Israel is carrying out the most intense strikes since the war started as we speak, including assassinations.
Is this one last blow before a short reprieve? Or a last-minute sucker punch to provoke Iran into reneging on the ceasefire, assuming there was such an agreement.
Israel's attack on Iran galvanized the public against the West and rallied them to the regime. Are the IRGC assassinations and ceasefire a gambit to leave room for an "organic uprising" to breathe?
There are still conflicting reports on the ceasefire. And why would Iran trust the US and Israel after they broke similar agreements with Hamas and Hezbollah and after the surprise attacks by Israel and the US? The fog of war remains...
Much to consider, but the fact remains that the forces that drove these hostilities remain unchanged, and have probably intensified.
Police in Winona Minnesota are stunned after every single one of their Flock cameras were suddenly removed in a single night.
According to the police department, all 8 of the town's cameras were cut down and hauled away.
Police are asking for the public's help to identify the individual, but the public has been responding with comments such as:
"The Flock cameras tore themselves down"
"Whoever did it, was fishing with me"
"Whoever it was, was at Bible study with me"
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Nearly 20,000 people are publicly vouching for a man accused of cutting down Flock cameras in a small West Virginia town.
People commented:
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"He was saving my neighbor's dog from a fire all day, couldn't be him."
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"This man is innocent. I saw him serving at a soup kitchen."
-"Couldn't be him. He was helping me replace the roof on a homeless shelter."
The man, Wesley Jackson, has pleaded Not Guilty.
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US diesel crack surpasses $100 a barrel for the first time on supply disruptions
... and the supply of refined fuels is already nearly exhausted. A hard landing is visible ahead, for farmers, for trucking, and ... well, for everything that requires food (people) and energy (the entire economy).
These are very likely the final days of relative normalcy during which to prepare. Get ready.
🌾 🌍 🚜 JPMorgan warns a massive global food supply crisis could begin next year as fertilizer shortages tighten agricultural supply.
JPMorgan is the latest institutional research desk to warn that the next global food crisis may already be taking shape, driven by what its analysts describe as the "Five Ws": War, Weather, Warehousing, Water, and Waste.
In a new report titled Food Security Is National Security: A Compounding Storm, a team led by London-based senior global economist Nora Szentivanyi warned that disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz and the emergence of a potentially historic El Niño could weaken crop yields, constrain agricultural production, and keep food inflation elevated through the first half of 2027.
"Successive shocks since COVID have compounded, eroding food production capacity and keeping food price pressures elevated into 2027," Szentivanyi said, warning that "this is not a short-lived shock; it has reduced the likelihood of near-term disinflation, and the food ...
