We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
My preliminary analysis based on the events of the last 48 hours are that despite the US strikes, muted Iranian response, and dubious announcement of a ceasefire— the fundamental strategic situation between Israel, Iran, and the US has not changed.
Israel continues to seek regime change. Iran's nuclear program has apparently not been destroyed. And there is little hope that the United States can resume diplomacy with Iran.
Iran's retaliation and their apparent decision not to withdraw from the NPT or close the Strait of Hormuz is de-escalatory. Trump has clearly preferred a diplomatic resolution throughout the 60-day timetable and the "12-day war."
Israel cannot survive a sustained conflict of this nature with Iran. Which means they will have to escalate their tactics or sue for a temporary ceasefire.
Earlier today, the Washington Post reported that IRGC commanders received a 12-hour ultimatum from Mossad to oppose to Iranian regime or have their families killed. Israel is carrying out the most intense strikes since the war started as we speak, including assassinations.
Is this one last blow before a short reprieve? Or a last-minute sucker punch to provoke Iran into reneging on the ceasefire, assuming there was such an agreement.
Israel's attack on Iran galvanized the public against the West and rallied them to the regime. Are the IRGC assassinations and ceasefire a gambit to leave room for an "organic uprising" to breathe?
There are still conflicting reports on the ceasefire. And why would Iran trust the US and Israel after they broke similar agreements with Hamas and Hezbollah and after the surprise attacks by Israel and the US? The fog of war remains...
Much to consider, but the fact remains that the forces that drove these hostilities remain unchanged, and have probably intensified.
All,
Well, that didn't take long. We are now in the week after Trump ordered MIDNIGHT HAMMER execution. It looks like the mission was accomplished. Aerial photos clearly show impact locations and apparent collapse of underground structures. The psychological aftermath will be more devastating for Iran.
I am thoroughly impressed with the execution. Only account/media I saw that called it has been calling it everyday since Israel started hostilities with Iran. He's a broken clock, so I know he didn't know anything. The operational security was outstanding creating a sense of complete shock around the world that it was pulled off. This is what you get with serious people in charge and demonstrated consequences for leaking. And, people thought Pete Hegseth was a bad choice for Sec. Def. The operational control here demonstrates his impact of the culture of our military.
The other thing just as impressive is there appears to have been staunch disagreement among our leaders about taking this...
Secret channel: www.youtube.com/ @globalintelchannel DO NOT MENTION ANYTHING PREPPPERNOW
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BIG: Senior U.S. officials told the NYT “they don’t know where Iran’s near-weapons-grade uranium stockpile is.”
Iran reportedly moved about 400 kg of 60% enriched uranium—just below weapons-grade—before the U.S. strikes.
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Iran sent a message to Trump days before the strikes, warning it would activate sleeper-cell terror inside the U.S. if attacked.
Source: NBC
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Senator Graham:
I have 84 co-sponsors for a sanctions bill that’s an economic bunker buster targeting Russia, China, and India.
It’s time to vote — and I think it’ll pass.
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NEW: Spanish FM:
I will ask the EU to approve an immediate suspension of the trade agreement with Israel.
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Israeli Air Force struck a ready-to-fire Iranian ballistic missile, causing a massive secondary explosion that destroyed the missile.
IDF says Israeli Air Force struck six Iranian airbases, destroying 15 aircraft and helicopters, including F-14s, F-5s, and an aerial refueling plane.
Runways and underground hangars were also hit to degrade Iran’s air capabilities.
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U.S. State Dept. Spox Tammy Bruce:
The U.S. is the greatest country on ...
Tankers Flee Strait of Hormuz
Following U.S. strikes on Iran, tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped sharply.
Two VLCCs—Coswisdom Lake and South Loyalty—made U-turns near the strait, reflecting rising tensions. Tanker entries and exits fell by 32% and 27%, respectively.
Iran’s parliament approved a resolution allowing potential closure of the strait, a key oil route handling 20% of global supply. Though not enforced yet, the threat has rattled markets—Brent crude surged over 9%.
Ship movements show zig-zagging, detours, and delays. Some resumed transit, but GPS jamming and electronic interference persist.
Despite the strait remaining open, risk to global energy and shipping remains high.
Source: Reuters
