My preliminary analysis based on the events of the last 48 hours are that despite the US strikes, muted Iranian response, and dubious announcement of a ceasefire— the fundamental strategic situation between Israel, Iran, and the US has not changed.

Israel continues to seek regime change. Iran's nuclear program has apparently not been destroyed. And there is little hope that the United States can resume diplomacy with Iran.

Iran's retaliation and their apparent decision not to withdraw from the NPT or close the Strait of Hormuz is de-escalatory. Trump has clearly preferred a diplomatic resolution throughout the 60-day timetable and the "12-day war."

Israel cannot survive a sustained conflict of this nature with Iran. Which means they will have to escalate their tactics or sue for a temporary ceasefire.

Earlier today, the Washington Post reported that IRGC commanders received a 12-hour ultimatum from Mossad to oppose to Iranian regime or have their families killed. Israel is carrying out the most intense strikes since the war started as we speak, including assassinations.

Is this one last blow before a short reprieve? Or a last-minute sucker punch to provoke Iran into reneging on the ceasefire, assuming there was such an agreement.

Israel's attack on Iran galvanized the public against the West and rallied them to the regime. Are the IRGC assassinations and ceasefire a gambit to leave room for an "organic uprising" to breathe?

There are still conflicting reports on the ceasefire. And why would Iran trust the US and Israel after they broke similar agreements with Hamas and Hezbollah and after the surprise attacks by Israel and the US? The fog of war remains...

Much to consider, but the fact remains that the forces that drove these hostilities remain unchanged, and have probably intensified.