🇺🇸 The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow says the U.S. is growing at +3.8%.

But Moody’s Analytics finds 22 states + D.C. already in recession, from Washington to Georgia to Massachusetts.

So... are we booming, or breaking?

Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi says the U.S. is “on the precipice” of a damaging contraction.

Job losses are mounting in states tied to manufacturing, farming, and transport, while high-cost states like Georgia are now seeing population pullbacks.

Even California and New York are “treading water.”

GDP paints one picture - broad averages lifted by consumer spending and services.

But the micro data tell another story...goods-producing regions are cracking.

In past cycles, state-level recessions often lead national ones.

The fissures start small… until real cracks appear

Zandi blames policy uncertainty: tariffs, job cuts, and stalled labor growth.

Others say the slowdown’s overhyped.

Either way, 22 recessions inside one economy isn’t a "no landing"...it’s a warning.

🔗 Simon Ree