We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
🇺🇸 The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow says the U.S. is growing at +3.8%.
But Moody’s Analytics finds 22 states + D.C. already in recession, from Washington to Georgia to Massachusetts.
So... are we booming, or breaking?
Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi says the U.S. is “on the precipice” of a damaging contraction.
Job losses are mounting in states tied to manufacturing, farming, and transport, while high-cost states like Georgia are now seeing population pullbacks.
Even California and New York are “treading water.”
GDP paints one picture - broad averages lifted by consumer spending and services.
But the micro data tell another story...goods-producing regions are cracking.
In past cycles, state-level recessions often lead national ones.
The fissures start small… until real cracks appear
Zandi blames policy uncertainty: tariffs, job cuts, and stalled labor growth.
Others say the slowdown’s overhyped.
Either way, 22 recessions inside one economy isn’t a "no landing"...it’s a warning.
đź”— Simon Ree
🇺🇸 Teenagers are now facing charges after doing a ding-dong ditch prank with a twist. They showed up in masks, wearing tactical gear and a rifle, or what looks like a rifle.
Two #Delaware teenagers, aged 16 and 17, faced charges after knocking on doors in New Castle while wearing tactical-style vests and carrying what appeared to be a rifle, police said.
This could’ve ended so badly..
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🌆 Market News Digest
[Oct 20, 2026 EST]
🔥 Top Stories
• US–Iran tensions swing markets — Hormuz tanker fire, Israel warns of renewed strikes, Rubio says talks are hard; oil stayed volatile even as Brent eased below $109
• Anthropic’s massive AI spend shock — WSJ says it may spend >$600B on compute, with huge cloud/Nvidia commitments and >$80B H1 loss
• Trump on Ukraine, Iran and trade — says Ukraine must make a deal, India trade is “pretty close,” and he’s weighing Iran action
â›˝ Oil & Energy
• Hormuz tanker fire / mine incident — IRGC says a supertanker carrying >2M barrels caught fire after hitting a mine
• Europe gas >€90 — benchmark tops 2022 levels on supply fears; US diesel prices remain elevated
• NATO and EU security push — NATO adds Black Sea assets; EU doubles down on Arctic security and keeping fossil fuels in the ground
đź“Š Markets & Macro
• US housing weakens further — starts fell 5.2% and pending sales dropped 7.3% to a record low, pressuring ...
📝 🇪🇺 🇫🇷 Mario Nawfal on X: Europe's riots are just the beginning. The real economic shock hasn't even arrived yet.
I spoke with economist Philip Pilkington about the unrest spreading across France, Italy and Albania.
He thinks we're watching the early stages of something much bigger.
One statistic really caught my attention.
According to Pilkington, France's inflation-adjusted household food consumption has fallen roughly 6.4% since 2022. He suspects the poorest households have suffered far steeper cuts.
Now add another surge in energy prices.
Pilkington pointed to rice futures rising 70% this year, wheat and sugar climbing 40%, and fertilizer shortages threatening next year's harvest.
His prediction is that the worst food inflation could arrive this winter or next spring.
And there's a political problem sitting right on top of it.
Governments across Europe are already deeply unpopular. People are struggling to afford basic necessities, and another prolonged energy ...
