We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
🇺🇸 The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow says the U.S. is growing at +3.8%.
But Moody’s Analytics finds 22 states + D.C. already in recession, from Washington to Georgia to Massachusetts.
So... are we booming, or breaking?
Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi says the U.S. is “on the precipice” of a damaging contraction.
Job losses are mounting in states tied to manufacturing, farming, and transport, while high-cost states like Georgia are now seeing population pullbacks.
Even California and New York are “treading water.”
GDP paints one picture - broad averages lifted by consumer spending and services.
But the micro data tell another story...goods-producing regions are cracking.
In past cycles, state-level recessions often lead national ones.
The fissures start small… until real cracks appear
Zandi blames policy uncertainty: tariffs, job cuts, and stalled labor growth.
Others say the slowdown’s overhyped.
Either way, 22 recessions inside one economy isn’t a "no landing"...it’s a warning.
đź”— Simon Ree
Police in Winona Minnesota are stunned after every single one of their Flock cameras were suddenly removed in a single night.
According to the police department, all 8 of the town's cameras were cut down and hauled away.
Police are asking for the public's help to identify the individual, but the public has been responding with comments such as:
"The Flock cameras tore themselves down"
"Whoever did it, was fishing with me"
"Whoever it was, was at Bible study with me"
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Nearly 20,000 people are publicly vouching for a man accused of cutting down Flock cameras in a small West Virginia town.
People commented:
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"He was saving my neighbor's dog from a fire all day, couldn't be him."
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"This man is innocent. I saw him serving at a soup kitchen."
-"Couldn't be him. He was helping me replace the roof on a homeless shelter."
The man, Wesley Jackson, has pleaded Not Guilty.
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US diesel crack surpasses $100 a barrel for the first time on supply disruptions
... and the supply of refined fuels is already nearly exhausted. A hard landing is visible ahead, for farmers, for trucking, and ... well, for everything that requires food (people) and energy (the entire economy).
These are very likely the final days of relative normalcy during which to prepare. Get ready.
🌾 🌍 🚜 JPMorgan warns a massive global food supply crisis could begin next year as fertilizer shortages tighten agricultural supply.
JPMorgan is the latest institutional research desk to warn that the next global food crisis may already be taking shape, driven by what its analysts describe as the "Five Ws": War, Weather, Warehousing, Water, and Waste.
In a new report titled Food Security Is National Security: A Compounding Storm, a team led by London-based senior global economist Nora Szentivanyi warned that disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz and the emergence of a potentially historic El Niño could weaken crop yields, constrain agricultural production, and keep food inflation elevated through the first half of 2027.
"Successive shocks since COVID have compounded, eroding food production capacity and keeping food price pressures elevated into 2027," Szentivanyi said, warning that "this is not a short-lived shock; it has reduced the likelihood of near-term disinflation, and the food ...
